Counterpunch and India: Cluelessness on reality

Counterpunch sounds semi-incredulous that India's Army Chief of Staff would salute Israel's booby-trapping pagers, even noting India has faced that before. 

Really? This IS the Islamophobic BJP ruling India. Since Narendra Modi's ascent to the prime minstership, he has drawn ever closer to Israel. You know, like Tulsi Gabbard.

Yes, India has signed various international conventions against this. So has the US, and that hasn't stopped Genocide Joe from cutting blank checks to Bibi.

This story also ignores Modi's own role, when head of that state, in the 2002 Gujarat riots.

And, Gen. Upendra Dwivedi was just appointed this summer. Likely has Modi political ties.

If this was meant to be rhetorical? It fell flat on its face.

Meanwhile, Counterpunch continues to flack anti-BDSer Noam Chomsky, as well as duopoly sell-out Ralph Nader, which I mentioned a week ago.

Earth Overshoot Day — the issue and various partial answers

Many capitalist Americans have heard of "tax-free day," the date in which the average American (these things are always done by the mean, not the median, so of limited insight) has earned enough to be free and clear of government obligations.

Far fewer have heard of Earth Overshoot Day, the day in which the planet "goes into debt" for the rest of the year of capitalist Americans and other world island citizens raping it, not just raping it "at par," but beyond what is sustainable. We hit that last month.

As the link notes, climate change is but one symptom of broader Earth Overshoot. But, it gets even less attention. Usually, far less.

Per that chart, we've been in overshoot for more than 50 years, and it has generally continued to worsen until about the time of the Great Recession.

Many organizations pushing more activism on the issue have focused on population growth. Regardless of any ethical issues on forced limits on population growth (you, China) and how that affects longer-term society to boot, such activists are all wet.

Yes, we're a bit over 8 billion, but the UN has indicated we'll probably peak somewhere between 9 and 10 billion, and won't get close to 11 billion. That means limiting population growth is not really a part of the solution, with the exception of one country, possibly two. More below. Consumption is. If you won't be honest about that as the bottom line, you're not being honest.

It should also be noted that, while things haven't gotten better, contra the natalists, they haven't gotten worse since the Western world's Great Recession, even as population has continued to rise, even soar, in places like India and sub-Saharan Africa.

The one country? India, especially as long as its Hindutva-fascist leadership sees "more people" as a key part of policy. The possible second country? Pakistan, if triggered by Indian birtherism.

On consumption and the developing world? It is the developed world's responsibility, just as it is with the Earth Overshoot subset of climate change, to help the developing world avoid our mistakes and past history — help that must be financial as well as technological, and "open" — untariffed, unburdened by intellectual property restrictions or pseudo-restrictions, etc.

Beyond that, touting antinatalism as "the" answer looks racist, even if not meant that way. And, there's a history of White environmentalism that's racist that's not just "history." It's still out there today.

D-Day for international politics

President Macron of France doesn't have to worry about inviting Russians to D-Day. He's a strong-presidency president with time left on his term. That said, any continued talk about getting French troops involved in the Russia-Ukraine War might be a different story!

And, with that, let's jump into a brief roundup of non-US elections.

==

In India, Narendra Modi appears to have won a third term, but, with India in a parliamentary system, he'll have to do that as part of a coalition, as the BJP fell short of an outright majority. It wound up about 35 seats, or 7 percentage points, short of a Lok Sabha majority. Dalits and lower-caste Hindus turned against him; the result was bad enough he lost the key state of Uttar Pradesh.

That second link has other takeaways, the biggie being that Thomas Piketty and other economists note that income inequality in Modi's India is worse than in the British Raj! Second-biggest being that Dalits worried that a Modi landslide would mean amending the constitution to eliminating affirmative action for them, and Muslims worrying that the constitution would be amended to eliminate references to India as a secular state.

For me, the question is, will this trim his Hindutva sails, or will it drive him to become even more of what he already is? 

Second question? Has America's own Hindutva-fascist Tulsi Gabbard thrown herself off a bridge in despair?

==

With Mexico's election just conducted, a retrospective on AMLO from The Nation. The Texas Observer reprints a piece by a consortium of Hispanic journalists that doesn't dive that deep. It's a shame, but not a surprise. 

There's plenty else to dissect about both AMLO and successor Claudia Sheinbaum. One is that — and this gets to the issue of HOW the Observer missed the mark — they're not always what NorteAmericano leftists have cracked them up as being. For example, per this piece, neither is a good environmentalist. And, while neither is an American neoliberal, overall, neither is as leftist as the above cracking up. Or, another way, the actual President Lopez Obrador is not that close to the previous 2006 presidential candidate Lopez Obrador.

Unless you're the National Endowment for Democracy, which decided to salute Sheinbaum's election by doing a hack job hit piece on AMLO.

==

Written last week, before all votes were counted, this Counterpunch piece sums up the clusterfuck of the South African elections. The ANC losing its majority, but still able to govern with coalition partners will likely further destabilize that country. Unfortunately, two of the most likely partners to coalition with are run by blatant ethnopopulists with their own problems.

As for the actual counting? The ANC barely hit 40 percent nationwise, down from 57 percent. The MK Party, run by one of those ethnopopulists, former president and former ANC head Jacob Zuma, soared to 15 percent. ANC leadership insisted Cyril Ramphosa will remain president, as if there's much of a choice inside the ANC or from the partners. But, that may be just whistling in the dark. Per the first link, Zuma thinks Ramphosa is behind his previous corruption conviction and ongoing woes, and says MK will not coalition with the ANC if Ramphosa is still in power.

That said, per that "barely hit" link? Yes, it's good that the ANC has lost its absolute majority. It might be forced to look at itself.

==

In all three countries, with two of them members of the "BRICS" acronym group, the income inequality growth will be a lead anchor on their economic short-term futures. China's also dealing with that, but a population on the decline will produce some pressures and alleviate others. It's hard to imagine Modi, with the world's largest population and a hate for Dalits as well as Muslims, really adjusting much.

==

Update, June 9: The AfD was CRUSHING IT in Germany in EU-wide elections for the European Parliament, with Chancellor Sgt. Scholz and his Social Democrats being the chief crushees.

Coronavirus Week 112A: Blame Xi Jinping for 2 million dead

If American companies didn't hand trade and manufacturing secrets to China like blank checks — another part of America's general craptacular kowtowing to China, including trade relations favorability in the past given to them before Russia — it would still be a backwater, the way it manages COVID.

I'm sure that NONE of the Xi Jinping Thought Kool-Aid peddlers, whether fake leftist and neoliberal grifter Max Blumenthal, alleged leftist but not really Adam Tooze, Green Party twosiders Margaret Flowers and Howie Hawkins, People's Republic of Humboldt County leader Rainier Shea, or Margaret Kimberly and Danny Haiphong of the useful gang of idiots that's left at Black Agenda Report, can explain why, supposedly after China had originally crushed COVID, then a humongous Shanghai lockdown crushed COVID, can explain why China has ANOTHER Shanghai lockdown. Contra Tooze and his kiss-ass book on COVID, China's vaccines suck. Contra the story, Xi is so untrustworthy that I totally do not believe Johns Hopkins numbers of 15K Chinese COVID deaths. (Worldometers, which is good inside democratic and transparent countries, is even worse on this issue, claiming jut 5K deaths.)

The reality? As of January, Forbes, channeling a piece from the Economist that had COVID undercounting rates around the world, said China's real death rate was probably 1.7 million. That was January. (Fortunately, the Economist piece isn't paywalled; the Forbes pieces are straightforward, but their author is a full-on wingnut, going by his Twitter.)

Even worse, when China was actually counting deaths (it stopped, in Ground Zero Wuhan itself after March 31, 2020) it was undercounting. And, in a country with extensive social media and general internet monitoring and able to dragoon foreign nationals into quarantine is surely gathering PLENTY of COVID data — they're just not reporting any of it.

That said, this is more a problem than sucky vaccines. ONLY FIFTY PERCENT of Chinese over 80 are vaccinated, per the first link. Shit, that's worse than red-state antivaxxer America.

Failing lockdowns in the face of a country that still has only gotten half of its age 80-plus population vaccinated, means its surely around 2 million now, per my header.

In addition, Mr. Calhoun, in a second Forbes piece, notes that (like in places like Vietnam, also wrongly touted as "crushing" COVID) rural people, aged or not, are far less vaccinated that rural red state wingnuts, and health care available to them is slim.

So, there's your reality. It would still be half the COVID death rate, per population, of the US, but China likely has 2 million COVID deaths — and still counting.

And, while half the death rate of the US, at 1,400 per 1 million, that's still higher than The Netherlands, Hong Kong (OOOPS), Denmark, Canada, Finland, Norway, South Korea (nearly 3x lower), New Zealand (almost 5x lower), Japan (almost 6x lower) and Taiwan (almost 7x lower), among "advanced" nations with trustworthy stats.

Will Xi get a third term and become China's first "maximum leader" since Deng?

==

Side note: There's good reason to believe, from the Economist estimates and data modeling, that Russia is lying a fair amount but not ridiculously, while India is the second-biggest liar in the world outside China (Pakistan is the biggest, and per the Economist link, I think Bangladesh is more "challenged" thal "liar"), with possibly 7 million or more deaths on a high-side estimate. (But, just as Xi has Uyghurs to scapegoat, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has Muslims.)

Update: At Unherd, Ashley Rindsberg has a good take on US media gullibility, as well as WHO enabling that.

Update, July 27, 2023: Per this Foreign Poicy piece, via a CFR piece, it's possible China had as many as another 1 million deaths in the nine months after I wrote this.

Coronavirus Week 67: Shots still not being gotten in US; lambda variant here; Indian dead massively undercounted?

Let's start with the second half of the header, because it puts everything else into perspective. The government of India officially claims a little over 400,000 COVID deaths. Some Western think tanks are saying the real number might be FOUR MILLION. Not all of that is due to the virulence of the Delta virus variant. Some of it is on the incompetence of the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And, some of it's on Indian poverty. 

That said, I question an item or two in the story. It may not be "officially official," but, going by state health departments and such, Worldometers has a US death toll of 625K, not the 500K mentioned in the piece as "official." THAT then said, many researchers estimate that a few hundred thousand early deaths may have been missed. So, the real number may be 900K, not 700. In any case, even allowing for population difference, that's still below India's 4 million, if true.

As for the why? Per NPR, some of it may be chaos. But, I don't think it stresses enough the efforts of state governors from Modi's BJP to directly undercount deaths. (Remember, this has been alleged about the early days of COVID in China.)

Remember all of this when you hear BRIC or BRICS nations being touted. That's especially when said touting is by left-socialists, or Marxists like Richard D. Wolff who "can't be bothered" to mention The Cultural Revolution or Great Leap Forward when discussing China's putative-to-him inexorable rise to economic power. (Since he's a Marxist, such things are of course "inexorable" per the pseudoscience of the prescriptive side of Marxism.)

Finally? WHO's director general is pushing China hard to be more lab-transparent.

OK, with that, next, the second third of the header.

Texas

Yep, there's ANOTHER variant, called lambda. Only about 700 documented cases, but at least one of them is here in Texas. It's a "variant of concern," but believed to be less transmissible than delta.

Also here in Texas, it's bad enough that Austin has put out new social distancing recommendations. Recommendations, not regulations, because per Strangeabbott, they're not enforceable.

Statewide, with vaccination still under 45 percent, the delta variant has driven the state's positive test rate up above 10 percent.

And, that also includes information that leads to the first third.

National

As Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy calls out Facebook (and a lesser degree, Twitter, which lacks no "fake news" tag in its verticals for why I'm reporting a Tweet) for its role in vaccine disinformation, Facebook, including through the About Facebook blog, continues to lie by silence.

Springfield, Missouri, hospital director tells denialists to "shut up" as adult and pediatric cases all surge. And, this surge started way back at the Fourth of July weekend.

 

The liars and hypocrites at Fox, after repeatedly attacking so-called "vaccine passports" got busted by a leaked email as having their own.

That's as the Delta variant shows more ability to break past vaccination than previously reported.

Oh, white wingnuts who helped contribute to the biggest one-year drop in US life expectancy since WWII? Especially if in your 50s and early 60s, thank you! You paid in plenty to Social Security but took little to none, making it a bit more solvent for me.

St. Anthony of Fauci lied again earlier this week, and unlike over masks, his lies about gain-of-function research aren't even Platonic Noble Lies; they're shabby phrase-spinning.

Woke White Warriors are claiming antivaxxers are inherently racist. I refudiated this claim, showing it can't even prove they're racist specific to issues on the ground, let alone inherently so.

 

World

 

Of course Xi Jinping told WHO to "go get stupid" about its request for on-site follow-up coronavirus investigations.

Coronavirus, week 55: Kids and Indians, Miller and Patrick

Per the header, I 'm going alternate national and global news this week before getting to Texana, and the second half of that header,

• By Indians, we mean not American Indians, but residents of the subcontinental country, as India looks more and more like the new Brazil. It's sad, but not really shocking. Both countries are lead by charismatic, authoritarian, populist heads of government. PM Narendra Modi may appeal to different populist ideas than Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, of course, but, in the big picture, there's lots of parallels. The two countries are also alike in having high degrees of income inequality and a fragile veneer on their BRICS exteriors.

India claims to have a small COVID death rate, per Worldometers, but that, and total case rate, is almost surely unreliable. The NYT agrees that there's certainly an undercount and likely a huge one. An Indian native doctor who's at the University of Michigan says the actual count is likely two-five times higher. That's in part because many Indian doctors are lying on death certificates. If this is all true, then India actually has a million COVID deaths and counting, and a death rate about that of Russia.

Meanwhile, Modi's answer? Pressuring Twitter to censor Tweets in India that are allegedly defamatory of his government. The new version of seditious libel, as India continues to slide further away from democracy. I shudder to think of the situation in Kashmir. I of course did a Twitter callout of Tulsi Gabbard on this.

• Kids? Michigan is kind of the poster child for the surge in juvenile COVID cases in the US.

• Long COVID, at least in older men, appears to be long indeed. SOO glad I didn't get it AND that I'm now shot up.

• Japan is being slow in its vaccination program AND saying that no participants need vaccination. The issue is spilling into Japanese politics. And, if I had money to go to Tokyo, and the time, no, I wouldn't.

• Derek Thompson is right: It's time, or even beyond time, to end outdoor masking rules.

• The NYT editorial board says Biden and the big vaccine makers both need to do more to make sure developing nations have more vaccines. Specifics include the biggie opposed by hypercapitalist conspirator Bill Gates — suspend patents. Biden has responded by offering 60 million AstraZenica doses globally. A start, but dodges the patents issue, and could be seen as "dumping" the most concerning vaccine, relatively speaking.

Biden's Department of Labor, a month late and under Democrat Congresscritter pressure, has finally released its COVID workplace guidelines.

 At the Atlantic, James Hamblin has his latest thoughts (but no new science) on the possibility of a "universal vaccine" for SARS, MERS, COVID-19 and possible future coronavirus assaults.

Texas

I don't know how I missed it, but Jeebus Shot Sid Miller is suing Lite Gov Danny Goeb over COVID restrictions under the Pink Dome. Getcher popcorn, especially since "Doctor" Steve Hotze is behind the suit and Jared Woodfill is the barratry specialist of record. I guess a COVID shot ain't a Jesus shot? What's more interesting yet is that Patrick actually has apparently abandoned his "duty to die," even though he's over 70 himself; the restrictions are ONLY on the Senate side of the Capitol, but Patrick has essentially done a cross-dome callout to House Speaker Dade Phelan to tell him to get his shit together. 

A Palestine doctor is working to overcome social-cultural resistance as well as actual medical fears to get people vaccinated.

She's got her work cut out for her. Even with just one-quarter of the state vaccinated, vaccine demand continues to drop. And, it's rural counties like hers, and presumably rural white wingnuts who have imbibed vaccine conspiracy theories or conspiracy cure theories who are a major part of the problem. I know. I live in one.

Both the feds and state officials have recommended resuming Johnson and Johnson shots.

Robert Rivard worries about the decline in demand for the COVID vaccine. 

India plans to go all-electric on cars by 2030

No, really! That's what the government claims, per the World Economic Forum.

Yeah, right.

Both Modi's currently ruling BJP AND Congress would be more likely to let Pakistan have Kashmir than for this to become a reality.

(And, as of August 2019, Modi's moved MUCH further away from that reality. The reality of Kashmir as a "giant prison camp" and how India  — led by the BJP, but with Congress and allies in acquiescence — got to this point is explained in detail by Arundhati Roy.)

I mean, given that by 2030, India will likely pass China as the world's most populous nation, thanks to Modi having declared a "birthrate war" with Beijing, AND, given that India's been a foot-dragger to this point on even voluntary efforts to help fight global climate change, this would be great.

But, it ain't happening.

There's ZERO charging infrastructure there. But, that's a minor problem.

One-third of rural Indian homes lack electricity, even though just about all the country (theoretically) is wired. Many houses that do have juice don't have it for a full 24 hours a day. It's intermittent and unreliable.

And, by India's current grid, going all-electric could be worse than having more gas-powered cars. Coal makes up nearly 60 percent of its power generation, and a fair amount of that is dirty lignite.

After all, in advance of the Paris Accord talks, the Modi government said India should be lumped with sub-Saharan Africa, not China, on standards. If it was telling the truth, then it knows it can't meet these promises. If it was lying, then it may well be lying now.

And, per that link and my "birthrate war" comment above, if ANYTHING is ANTI-climate change battling, it's deliberately asking your country to increase its birthrate.

To the degree India cleans up its electric generation, and produces more, other demands on it will go well ahead of electric cars.

#ParisClimateConference: India

From what I heard on NPR last night, reinforced by stories like this and this, India wants to have its cake and eat it too on climate change.

Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi says that Indian should be lumped more with sub-Saharan Africa than China on climate regulations. As part of this, he notes that fair chunks of India aren't even electrified.

But, once the Paris talks are done, just watch and wait.

Soon enough, Modi will bitch that India's not drawing nearly as much foreign investment as China, even though it should be treated just like China, or words to the similar.

It's an issue over which India has grown increasingly schizophrenic in the last decade or so, in my opinion, and is only likely to become more so. It has a "tar baby" relationship with China, and even more with the corporate West's relationship with China.

Meanwhile, even including the Potemkin Village aspects of China's economy, India continues to do worse. The infrastructure is worse. The graft and other corruption, because it's petty, diffuse, and multilayered, is worse than China's strongarm shakedowns.

And, the BJP's idea, even if not directly espoused by Modi, of trying to win, or rather, "win," a population growth war with China is simply nuts.

If ANYTHING in the developing world is anti-climate change, it's unchecked birthrates.

And, tragically, and stubbornly, for all his pronouncements about climate change, Francis the Talking Pope won't do anything about stopping papal and Vatican opposition to birth control.

Is the Pakistani Taliban taking notes about Flight 370?

How does the disappearance of the Malaysian plane tie with the Pakistani Taliban?

Simple.

In the search for the missing plane, we now learn that India sometimes shuts down some of its military radar.

Military systems, meanwhile, are often limited in their own coverage or just ignore aircraft they believe are on regular commercial flights. In some cases, they are simply switched off except during training and when a threat is expected.

That, one senior Indian official said, might explain why the Boeing 777 was not detected by installations on India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands, an archipelago which its planes were searching on Friday and Saturday, or elsewhere.

"We have many radar systems operating in this area, but nothing was picked up," Rear Admiral Sudhir Pillai, chief of staff of India's Andamans and Nicobar Command, told Reuters. "It's possible that the military radars were switched off as we operate on an 'as required' basis."

Separately, a defense source said that India did not keep its radar facilities operational at all times because of cost. Asked what the reason was, the source said: "Too expensive."

You can't tell me that somebody in the Pakistani Taliban isn't reading this, and isn't trying to figure out how to exploit it.

My 2013 predictions in news, culture, etc.

Note any international readers: These are largely US-based, but still may have a bit of international play.

1. The so-called "fiscal cliff" will finally get a deal on ... wait for it ... Jan. 7. Stock market will continue to sag, but not totally tank until that date, therefore undercutting the Pete Petersons of the world. Both Republicans and Democrats will do some can-kicking, postponing many details for discussion — until after the 2014 elections. GOP will "bite" on what was originally the offer by President Barack Obama, aka Dear Leader, for "chained CPI" on Social Security, and pressure Senate Democrats to "lump it."

And, yes, I know, there's claims that a "deal" is just around the corner, as of 7 p.m. Eastern time Dec. 31. Read a story like this, though, and you get a Swiss cheese of caveat holes.

2. Speaking of that, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will make only minor changes to filibuster rules.

3. President Obama will offer only relatively minor changes in whatever gun control legislation he sends to Congress, and will make the announcement of such legislation itself relatively mild. (As in sending it to Congress after 5 p.m. on a Friday.)

4. Angela Merkel's coalition, the unwieldy one, will fall apart in Germany sometime this year over a mix of resentment toward the eurozone's south, the Free Democrats' stance on nuclear power, and a general weariness.

5. John Kerry will become US Secretary of State. Rep. Edward Markey will win the special election to replace him in the Senate.

6. Chuck Hagel will ultimately withdraw his name from Secretary of Defense consideration after lack of support from Obama. At this point, I won't even venture a guess over who's next on Obama's list.

7.  India's rape-murder tragedy will be the last straw for its current government ad will force parliamentary elections some time in 2013. The Congress party will suffer disastrous losses. The new BJP government will get more aggressive against both native Maoists and Pakistan. The BJP will not improve the lives of Indian women, though.

8. Climate change legislation will not even get considered by the US.  But, the European Union will hold firm on its airline carbon taxes.

9. The Texas Legislature's new budget will not only be more hardcore antiabortion, it will tighten the belt on health care for the poor and have no major new money for schools. The fact that Texas Parks and Wildlife is still soliciting for we the taxpayer to make direct donations underscores this prediction. (And, no, I won't make a donation myself; it's called "enabling the wingnuts" — as in a spouse/lover enabling an alcoholic/addict.)

10. The state of Texas will lose the school finance lawsuit while the Lege is in session, but even with an expedited appeals route, appeals will not be done in time.

11. The state of Texas will lose all its appeals and, shades of the past, have to have multiple special sessions of the legislature before passing an acceptable school finance bill.

12. The US will sell drones to South Korea, which will escalate tensions with China, both directly and vis-a-vis Japan.

13. Britain's Liberal Democrats, for reasons unknown, will remain in coalition with Conservatives.

14. Bradley Manning will eventually accept a crappy plea-bargain deal, while the British government and Julian Assange will remain at deadlock all year.

===

Culture

1. "Lincoln" will win Oscars for best actor, director, producer, cinemetography and possibly screenplay.

2. Some rock star past the age of the 60 will become a father.

3. The Minnesota Orchestra (management) will refuse to settle its strike/lockout with its musicians and the season will be washed out. 

4. Fox will announce plans for a new late-night talk show.

5. PBS will revamp "News Hour."

7. Whether to Europe or Native Americans, a number of US museums will make major repatriations of art and artifacts.

8. John Adams will start work on a new opera.

Texas to lose its oil perch?

Fracking has expanded production in the Permian Basin, and gone on to open the Eagle Ford play for oil as well as gas. That, combined with the decline of the North Slope in Alaska, moved Texas back into the No. 1 slot among oil states a few years back.

But, the same modern techniques may make that perch short-lived. And, no, it's not North Dakota that's threatening.

Instead, the Golden State may be the new kingpin for black gold.

A shale play near Monterey, Calif., could have double the reserves of Eagle Ford plus North Dakota's Bakken combined.

Of course, as the story notes, Californai has strong environmental  laws. How much that will affect Monterey production, I don't know.

But, with California's population and refineries, you know oil companies are just itching to get at this.

At the same time, this has to be another concern for global warming issues. It certainly means that oil prices won't go so high as to discourage too much SUV use in the US, or the growth of car ownership in China and India.

Adjusting for inflation, if the Monterey play starts development any time soon, I'd say oil will stay below $110/bbl for the rest of the decade.

But, that's a big if. The Center for Biological Diversity has already annouced plans to sue. That area is also the home of wine grapes, strawberries, Gilroy-area garlic, and more. That alone will slow development.

And, it's also the home of earthquakes. Given that fracking already seems pretty well connected to some small earthquakes, fracking in close proximity to the San Andreas Fault sounds scary as hell. It also will be challenging, I'm sure.

Also, even if this bonanza leads us to meeting all our oil needs domestically, that still doesn't insulate the US from world oil issues.

In the third #CO2 corner in Durban, it's India, with climate #deniers

Will we finally, potentially, get a handle on Chinese emissions?/NY Times

That's the latest word from the Durban, South Africa climate talks: New Delhi wants to water down a seemingly watered-down "agreement" even further, one that seems to have brought China and the U.S. at least baby steps closer together. Here's the key point:

India is emerging as the country leading opposition to a strong binding deal on climate change at the annual UN talks in South Africa.

Other important countries including the US are prepared to negotiate an emission-curbing "legal instrument" by 2015, taking effect by 2020.

India is holding out for a start after 2020, and the weaker "legal outcome."

 My guess? India thinks it won't be able to catch up to China enough on industrialization by 2020. This from a country that shows the disorganization perils of democracy for more than 1 billion people, that adds to those perils with a level of corruption that probably, on a petty scale, at least, rides well above China's, and still has the semi-official, climate-harming goal, of passing China in population, and preferably sooner rather than later.

In short, it's a country that, towards Beijing, has a kinder, gentler form of the same sort of paranoia that Pakistan shows toward it.

It's true that papering over disagreements between China and America may turn out to be nothing other than kicking the can down the road five years. But, if there's a glimmer of hope that China (and Brazil) are agreeable to being treated as "top-tier developing nations" and not just "developing nations," with a plea for more time to work out details, then that is progress of some sort.

And, it's clear that even that is unacceptable to some denialists, big business interests or somebody:

What delayed matters further was a fake text issued apparently by the South African presidency after consultation with the EU, US, Brazil, India and China.

It contained weaker targets and longer timescales, and was initially greeted with consternation by the EU, Aosis and the LDCs, which have been pressing hardest for a strong deal.

The consternation turned to fury when it was discovered that the text was fake. European officials said it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to stall negotiations.

The perpetrator has not been identified. But it appears likely that the aim was to fracture the ad-hoc partnership between the EU and its developing world allies.

Meanwhile, beyond paranoia over China, it seems India wants to have its cake, of acting like it's a top-tier developing nation, and eat it, too, by still trying to act like "just a developing nation."

Well, a lot of China's economic growth may be little more than bubbles; its population control may have been too harsh, and its limited political liberalization may be largely unacceptable within its borders to its own residents as well as outside, but, it's showing a level of activity India isn't.

That said, the proposed agreement may be little more than papering over issues and kicking the can of U.S.-Chinese loggerheads down the road. Perhaps that's why U.S. climate negotiator Todd Stern is so supportive of it.

Speakers from many developed countries said the package of documents more than 100 pages thick did not go far enough to help poor nations and did not require industrial countries to make more immediate and serious cuts in their carbon emissions. But most said they would accept it for lack of a better option. ...

A separate document obliges major developing nations like China and India, excluded under Kyoto, to accept legally binding emissions targets in the future, by 2020 at the latest.

Together, the two documents overhaul a system designed 20 years ago that divide the world into a handful of wealthy countries facing legal obligations to reduce emissions, and the rest of the world which could undertake voluntary efforts to control carbon.

I have blogged going back at least two international climate conferences that the world needed a three-tiered, not two-tiered, set of nations, with "top-level developing nations" considered separate from the Botswanas and similar countries.

Now, we tentatively have it. Let's see both China and the United States grow up in climate change responsibility, and see India stop engaging in its new-found petulance.

It's regrettable that it took at least one, if not two, additional climate conferences than it should have to get even this much done, but the realist part of me will take it, even if it takes until 2020 to define what the in-between BRICs and others will have to meet in terns of emissions targets.

Another advantage of that is that, assuming China agrees to said targets, is it stops dirtier U.S. businesses from exporting quite so much pollution.

More thoughts below the fold.

Peak Oil raising its head again

The continuing high oil prices are in part due to continuing political uncertainty in Libya. But that's not the only reason.

Shell, as in Royal Dutch Shell, the oil giant, has admitted to more uncertainty about the future of oil supply. By 2050, if current trends continue, it says the supply-demand gap could be as great as the entire industry of 2000.

Of course, on the supply side, the biggest "pusher" is China.

Even if China is the Potemkim village Nouriel Roubini predicts, there's too much of the West invested in it for it to remain permanently that way. U.S fat cat CEOs simply have to have their supply source of cheaply made cheap products and they know it.

So, it will continue to be a driver. So will India.

That said, the Guardian also notes that Japan, post-Fukushima, gives us an image, even a laboratory, of what Peak Oil may be like.

Scat, you foxes; scat here, tigers

It's a double dose of SCATtering animals for this week's Friday scatblogging.

In Tasmania, scat studies hope to show that Australia's effort to eradicate non-native foxes is working.

Meanwhile, in India, other scat studies hope to show that Bengal tigers are not on the wane.

India hopes to address Obama miscue

That miscue being Obama’s welcoming China taking an expanding role in South Asia. I can’t blame Indian Prime Minister Singh for being miffed, even if he plans careful handling of the issue while in Washington. That said, it’s another sign of Obama’s kowtowing, brought on in part by Bush deficit spending, which he continues in many areas.

Indian claims global warming NOT melting Himalaya glaciers

Well, claims like this are a guarantee New Delhi will go slow on wanting to address global warming.

No climate deal in Copenhagen this year

Denmark’s climate minister says there won’t be a deal without more U.S. action, and we know how likely that is.

So, why don’t we save the carbon emissions, cancel now, let the EU create carbon tariffs, get more opprobrium dumped on the U.S., and go from there?

Carbon tariffs imposed from abroad is the ONLY thing that will prod the United States at this point, anyway.

That said, Connie Hedegaard said China and India need to step up to the plate, too.

Couple of new Amazon reviews up

Including a great book on the history of modern, democratic India.

India wants Copenhagen deal – but doesn’t

India says it wants a Copenhagen climate accord reached, but, like China, only if it has no binding carbon-emissions targets.That’s not a “deal,” it’s a pass.

I’m willing to do a two-tiered arrangement for developing countries, but the Kyoto accord had no binding targets for developing countries on the assumption that future deals would.

India follows China and opposes carbon limits

So, if India stands pat in its statement that even more rapidly developing countries should have no carbon-dioxide emission caps, why are we even having a Copenhagen round of climate control negotiations? The process is so unwieldy as is that a delay of after 2015 in getting India, China and Brazil committed will be almost worthless.