Actually, other than the Warren Commission getting the first and second shots of Lee Harvey Oswald's backward, and that thanks in fair part to John Connelly, it overall did a good job on Jack Kennedy's assassination.
That said, Arlen Specter rode his work as legal counsel to the commission to a 40-year political career and never stopped reminding us of it.
So, now when he wants the same Congress that got involved with MLB steroids to the laughability of Sammy Sosa forgetting English, Roger Clemens allegedly perjuring himself and Raffy Palmeiro doing so in spirit, to now "solve" the NFL lockout?
Can you say "three-ring circus"? Can you also say "lobbying extravaganza in the wings"? Can you say "lawsuit," Mr. Warren Commission lawyer?
That said, the comic value of Jethro Jerry Jones testifying before Congress could make this all kind of worth it, you know?
And, what the hell, Arlen? Why don't you hitch your wagon to that of Orrin Hatch and get Congress involved with the BCS shutting out non-Big Six conferences? We could have liars from Ohio State join those from the NFL. Maybe Jim Tressel could forget English along with Slammin' Sammy.
Showing posts with label Palmeiro (Rafael). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Palmeiro (Rafael). Show all posts
January 18, 2011
Jim Reeves gets HOF, roiding, Pameiro right
Jim Reeves, formerly of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and now of ESPN, talks in detail about why he's willing to be a "gatekeeper" with his BBWAA vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame and keep out Rafael Palmeiro, along with Mark McGwire and others.
The nut graf, or two, is at the end:
Yes, it may be a tourist attraction and Cooperstown, N.Y., moneymaker above all else, but it is also a shrine to the game.
So Commissioner Bud Selig? Union leader Gene Orza? It's time to really fess up about your knowledge of, or guesses about, roiding.
The nut graf, or two, is at the end:
I didn't vote for him. I doubt that I ever will. I can't and won't apologize for doing my job the best way I know how.
What I won't ever do, I hope, is bury my head in the sand and ignore my responsibility as a Hall of Fame voter. I'll quit before it comes to that.
Yes, it may be a tourist attraction and Cooperstown, N.Y., moneymaker above all else, but it is also a shrine to the game.
So Commissioner Bud Selig? Union leader Gene Orza? It's time to really fess up about your knowledge of, or guesses about, roiding.
January 08, 2011
De-factoring steroids from possible HOF candidates
I'm not holier than thou on the issue of steroids in baseball. My take is, how much did roiding, in my estimation, boost a particular suspect player's career. If I think I can reasonably factor that out, AND get some contrition, I will at least be open to voting a player into the Hall of Fame.
For example? Rafael Palmeiro is a "high borderline," still, with 350 HR, 450 2B, and a WAR around 55 or so. Raffy probably goes .360/.500/.860 on OBP/SLG/OPS. 1,500 runs and 1,700 RBIs. Of course, his oWAR might fall below 60. That's the hesitation point. Is Raffy a higher-grade Harold Baines without steroids? I wouldn't argue against that. But, he at least gets consideration.
Mark McGwire? I estimate that he'd be down to 450 HRs, and would lose a ton of walks, and so lose OBP and lose massively on OPS and OPS+, reinforcing his one-dimensional nature, so a no. Knock his OBP down to .380, his slugging to .550 and then his OPS to .930. His runs fall to 1,100 and his RBIs to 1,300. About 450 HRs. NOT a HOF career. That's a high-grade Dave Kingman or not a lot better.
Other players? As far as prime suspects, and doing some "redacting"?
Sammy Sosa is not a steroid-subtracted HOFer. Barry Bonds is. Roger Clemens is.
But, let's have confessions. Not just by the individuals. Bud Selig and Gene Orza need to step to the plate, pun intended, and hit a clean one out of the park.
That said, how much of an influence were steroids, on the batting side?
I'd say they're worth 30-40 percent of the power explosion. The Costa Rican baseballs after Rawlings moved its factor from Haiti? Maybe about the same. So, let's say 70 percent there. Maple bats 10-15 percent?
Continued squeezing of the strike zone? 10 percent? Miscellaneous factors, 5-10 percent.
Anyway, I'd love to hear more thoughts.
For example? Rafael Palmeiro is a "high borderline," still, with 350 HR, 450 2B, and a WAR around 55 or so. Raffy probably goes .360/.500/.860 on OBP/SLG/OPS. 1,500 runs and 1,700 RBIs. Of course, his oWAR might fall below 60. That's the hesitation point. Is Raffy a higher-grade Harold Baines without steroids? I wouldn't argue against that. But, he at least gets consideration.
Mark McGwire? I estimate that he'd be down to 450 HRs, and would lose a ton of walks, and so lose OBP and lose massively on OPS and OPS+, reinforcing his one-dimensional nature, so a no. Knock his OBP down to .380, his slugging to .550 and then his OPS to .930. His runs fall to 1,100 and his RBIs to 1,300. About 450 HRs. NOT a HOF career. That's a high-grade Dave Kingman or not a lot better.
Other players? As far as prime suspects, and doing some "redacting"?
Sammy Sosa is not a steroid-subtracted HOFer. Barry Bonds is. Roger Clemens is.
But, let's have confessions. Not just by the individuals. Bud Selig and Gene Orza need to step to the plate, pun intended, and hit a clean one out of the park.
That said, how much of an influence were steroids, on the batting side?
I'd say they're worth 30-40 percent of the power explosion. The Costa Rican baseballs after Rawlings moved its factor from Haiti? Maybe about the same. So, let's say 70 percent there. Maple bats 10-15 percent?
Continued squeezing of the strike zone? 10 percent? Miscellaneous factors, 5-10 percent.
Anyway, I'd love to hear more thoughts.
January 05, 2011
Bert made it! - and steroids "made it" too
Bert Blyleven had finally made the Hall of Fame, as has Robbie Alomar. (That said, even with all the years of enlightening more people, it's still sad he got "only" 79 percent, while Alomar zoomed past him, in his second year of eligibility to 90 percent. The biggest "issue" with Alomar is his career negative dWAR. Not sure whether it's more him being overrated by us all these years or more an issue with dWAR.
That said, per complete ballot information at Baseball-Reference.com's home page, it's clear the steroid era's fallout is looming large.
Jeff Bagwell failed to break 50 percent.
Rafael Palmeiro barely broke 10 percent.
Mark McGwire fell back below 20 percent.
Other interestings?
Barry Larkin moved up more than 10 percentage points. He may be there next year.
Jack Morris may have plateaued. (I hope.)
Edgar Martinez may have plateaued, but it's too early to tell.
That said, per complete ballot information at Baseball-Reference.com's home page, it's clear the steroid era's fallout is looming large.
Jeff Bagwell failed to break 50 percent.
Rafael Palmeiro barely broke 10 percent.
Mark McGwire fell back below 20 percent.
Other interestings?
Barry Larkin moved up more than 10 percentage points. He may be there next year.
Jack Morris may have plateaued. (I hope.)
Edgar Martinez may have plateaued, but it's too early to tell.
December 30, 2010
Rafael Palmeiro lies like a cheap rug
Alleged or believed baseball steroid users have taken different angles in the court of public opinion (and, in the case of Barry Bonds, in the court of legal record, too).
Bonds has simply clammed up. Mark MacGwire gave a semi-apology, semi-tearful, pseudo-tearful or whatever. Roger Clemens got indignant and had a lawsuit backfire on him. Sammy Sosa forgot the English language, then bleached his face white in an apparent attempt to go undercover.
Meanwhile, nobody has lied about the issue as brazenly as Rafael Palmeiro, apparently, who gets more brazen, if anything, now that he's up for the Hall of Fame.
Here's a good example:
Really? Canseco alleges he shot you up a full decade before the end of your career.
Raffy then says he doesn't understand why people don't believe him, and cites his own statistics as part of why he's believable.
I'm not arguing that, myself. I don't doubt Raffy would likely have had 3K hits without juicing. What IS in question is the source of a power surge that, throwing out 1991 as an outlier, began in 1993 at the relatively late age of 28, per your career record and actually got MORE unbelievable as you moved into your early, then middle, 30s. From the age of 30-38, Raffy, you hit 38 or more home runs nine straight seasons. Now, you may not have juiced as heavily as Bonds, but ...
These numbers are ... unusual, at the least, especially the homer numbers:
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/30/2010.
And, as I've blogged before, there's the issue of a healthy star athlete in his late 30s doing Viagra commercials. Is there a reason you might know that much about Viagra? Have to use it?
Interestingly, given Raffy's 3K hits/500HRs and 1,800 RBIs, his OPS+ is "only" 132 and his career offensive WAR ranks only No. 78. Makes you realize, on the OPS+, just how much steroids, and other offensive tweaks, screwed with the era of about 1994-2005.
Bonds has simply clammed up. Mark MacGwire gave a semi-apology, semi-tearful, pseudo-tearful or whatever. Roger Clemens got indignant and had a lawsuit backfire on him. Sammy Sosa forgot the English language, then bleached his face white in an apparent attempt to go undercover.
Meanwhile, nobody has lied about the issue as brazenly as Rafael Palmeiro, apparently, who gets more brazen, if anything, now that he's up for the Hall of Fame.
Here's a good example:
"I had no motivation to take steroids because I was at the end of my career."
Really? Canseco alleges he shot you up a full decade before the end of your career.
Raffy then says he doesn't understand why people don't believe him, and cites his own statistics as part of why he's believable.
"I don't want to take anything for granted, but there was a legitimate chance that I was going to get 3,000,"
I'm not arguing that, myself. I don't doubt Raffy would likely have had 3K hits without juicing. What IS in question is the source of a power surge that, throwing out 1991 as an outlier, began in 1993 at the relatively late age of 28, per your career record and actually got MORE unbelievable as you moved into your early, then middle, 30s. From the age of 30-38, Raffy, you hit 38 or more home runs nine straight seasons. Now, you may not have juiced as heavily as Bonds, but ...
These numbers are ... unusual, at the least, especially the homer numbers:
Year Age Tm 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1995 30 BAL 30 2 39 104 .310 .380 .583 .963 145
1996 31 BAL 40 2 39 142 .289 .381 .546 .927 132
1997 32 BAL 24 2 38 110 .254 .329 .485 .815 113
1998 33 BAL 36 1 43 121 .296 .379 .565 .945 144
1999 34 TEX 30 1 47 148 .324 .420 .630 1.050 159
2000 35 TEX 29 3 39 120 .288 .397 .558 .954 137
2001 36 TEX 33 0 47 123 .273 .381 .563 .944 141
2002 37 TEX 34 0 43 105 .273 .391 .571 .962 146
2003 38 TEX 21 2 38 112 .260 .359 .508 .867 117
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/30/2010.
And, as I've blogged before, there's the issue of a healthy star athlete in his late 30s doing Viagra commercials. Is there a reason you might know that much about Viagra? Have to use it?
Interestingly, given Raffy's 3K hits/500HRs and 1,800 RBIs, his OPS+ is "only" 132 and his career offensive WAR ranks only No. 78. Makes you realize, on the OPS+, just how much steroids, and other offensive tweaks, screwed with the era of about 1994-2005.
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