Venezuela — between the devil and the deep blue sea

What prompts this post is an AP story, seen via The Dissident, about how a Homeland Security agent, Edwin Lopez, tried to get one of the pilots who flies Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to commandeer his plane and kidnap him into US hands:

The plot was hatched when a tipster showed up at the U.S. Embassy in the Dominican Republic on April 24, 2024, when Joe Biden was president. The informant purported to have information about Maduro’s planes, according to three of the officials familiar with the matter.

There's that.

More background:

A wiry former U.S. Army Ranger from Puerto Rico, Lopez was leading the agency’s investigations into transnational criminal networks with a presence in the Caribbean, after a storied career taking down drug gangs, money launderers and fraudsters. His work dismantling an illicit money-changing operation in Miami even earned him a public rebuke in 2010 from Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s predecessor. The embassy assignment was to be his last before retirement. 

The embassy was closed, although Lopez was still at his desk. He was handed a 3x5 index card with the tipster’s name and phone number. When he called, the tipster claimed that two planes used by Maduro were in the Dominican Republic undergoing costly repairs.

And, that's that.

This clearly was not a rogue operation.

We first know that per whom the AP interviewed:

Details of the ultimately unsuccessful plan were drawn from interviews with three current and former U.S. officials, as well as one of Maduro’s opponents. All spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were either not authorized to discuss the effort or feared retribution for disclosing it. The Associated Press also reviewed — and authenticated — text exchanges between Lopez and the pilot.

Followed by how this idea was "cleared":

Lopez had an epiphany, according to the current and former officials familiar with the operation: What if he could persuade the pilot to fly Maduro to a place where the U.S. could arrest him? 

Maduro had been indicted in 2020 on federal narco-terrorism charges accusing him of flooding the U.S. with cocaine. 

The DHS agent secured permission from his superiors and Dominican authorities to question the pilots, overcoming the officials’ concerns about creating a diplomatic rift with Venezuela.

OK. So, with Maduro in power now for a dozen years, the foreign policy, aka Nat-Sec Nutsacks™, portion of the "deep state" has become institutionalized.

Between the devil and the deep blue sea?

First, Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chavez, failed the Venezuelan people by not diversifying its economy more. He should have established oilfield engineering programs, or improved those that already existed, in Venezuela. This would let native workers extract and refine the "dirty" oil from the Orinoco basin.

He could have invested other oil money in coastal resorts, including gaming. He could have done all of this while keeping Cuba's Fidel Castro and Bolivia's Evo Morales propped up at 50 cents on the dollar. (My skeptical take on Morales is here. And here.) 

And didn't. And so, was already unpopular by 2002, and a coup attempt then. Indeed, part of the run-up to that coup attempt was that Chavez was basically trying to gut Petroleos de Venezuela, in part because of its workers' independence. (Side note: Non-skeptical leftists don't really like to talk about that.) While the US had advance knowledge, and swiftly recognized the coup's front man as president, there is no indication it ever gave it any assistance.

Then came the Great Recession and the plunge in oil prices. They were then kept down by the expansion of fracking in the US. 

Then Chavez died and henchman Maduro took over. I wrote my semi-takedown obit of Chavez here. (Wiki's page on Chavez has allegations that he actually died in December 2012, after re-election but before his new term started in 2013.) And, while Chavez maintained a veneer of electoral authenticity, it's arguable Maduro hasn't done that. Yes, Juan Guaidó has been a US flunky; that doesn't mean that Maduro didn't set the stage for a Guaidó to arise in the first place.

And, the 2024 election was almost certainly fraudulent. 

Hence, the devil and deep blue sea, part one.

Part two is that sanctions against Venezuela have had their bite worsened by Chavez's failure to diversify the economy, and Maduro not even trying. More on Venezuela's economy here. More on non-skeptical leftists or pseudo-leftists cutting blank checks to Maduro here.

Meanwhile, the US continues sanctions against Venezuela, except continuing to buy its oil, albeit with restrictions and surcharges, cuz Merikkka. 

Maduro is likely to live another 10 years minimum if not 20. A kidnapping rumor, along with Trump authorizing CIA covert operations which will surely fail and likely be comical, will only backfire.

As in many such cases, the US and "country X" become Brer Rabbit and Tar Baby to each other. 

As for drug-dealing allegations? Likely true. And, those drugs are being used by people in the US, including Trump supporters. See the paragraph above. 

109 more reasons I'm not a Democrat

Per the Clerk of the House of Representatives, that would be the number of Democrat Congresscritters voting yes on a resolution "denouncing the horrors of socialism." 

NOTE: "Socialism," not "Communism."

The bill attacks not only the "obvious commies," but (natch, being sponsored by Florida Woman Maria Elvira Salazar, both Hugo Chavez and Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, and Nicaragua's Danny Ortega.

It also, in its attacks on Stalin, refers to the Holodomor. Here's the first lie, a lie by omission. By percentage of population, the collectivization death rate was higher in the Kazakh SSR than in the Ukraine.

On inflation rate? Dependent on exact survey date last year, either South Sudan or Turkey may be higher than Venezuela. The wingers also ignore that the US has partial responsibility (but not total!) for Venezuela's inflation.

Here in Tex-ass, such non-shockers as Colin Allred, Henry Cuellar, Vicente Gonzales and Mark Veasey. (And, per Kuff, there's already blather about Allred challenging Havana Ted for the Senate in 2024.) To the west, ConservaDem Gabe Vasquez of the southern district in New Mexico. Among names I know from elsewhere? Dan Kildee of Flint. Knew his dad personally; my dad knew him better.

Then there's the "present" Dems, including Peanut Butter (and Eddie Bernice) Johnson replacement Jasmine Crockett, Houston fauxgressive Sheila Jackson Lee, California's Eshoo, and The Land of Disenchantment's other two Dems — Fanta Se's Teresa Leger Fernandez and Albuquerque's Melanie Stansbury. (The Monthly somehow thinks Crockett is a pergressuve.)

Adios, Hugo Chavez

Surprisingly, Alternet's report of the Venezuelan president/quasi-strongman's death wasn't too fawning.

The Wall Street Journal's news page actually plays it pretty straight.

Counterpunch has yet to weigh in. I'm curious what it will say. (That said, last December, after Chavez's re-election, it did have some errors; for one, Guyana and Costa Rica, one next door and one arguably in the same region, both have lower inequality, as measured by Gini, than Venezuela. Both countries did it without the blessing, or the curse, of oil.)

And, the WSJ is right on some things. Chavez failed to significantly cut crime, among other things.

How bad is it? Slate says that, on an average weekend, more people are killed in Caracas than in Baghdad and Kabul combined.

Of course, both it AND Alternet ignore that the CIA may have been involved with the coup attempt against him in 2002. That's why I'm wondering what Counterpunch will say.I'm also wondering, because the way some "professional leftists" fawned over Chavez  is a good example of why I call myself a skeptical left-liberal. (I add that the December Counterpunch ignored any human rights or censorship issues from Chavez.)

Think Progress gets it right. That includes noting, with a World Bank report, that the decline in inequality was reflected throughout Latin America. As TP notes, that doesn't offset Chavez' political bullying, anti-Semitism and more.

But, shock me that Sean Penn is already gushing.

And Jimmy Carter, who talks about being allowed to monitor Venezuela's elections in 1998. (Think Progress notes that Jefe Chavez hasn't allowed that since 2006. And Carter cuts off his eulogy at 2004. Slick bastard.)

There are two questions.

One is, is Chavez better than what Venezuela had before? A very arguable, but nowhere near slam dunk, yes.

The second is, is he as good as Venezuela reasonably could have had? A very arguable no.

Honduras negotiations somewhat one-sided; US urges patience

So far, the offer by interim President Roberto Micheletti to give ousted President Manuel Zelaya an amnestyis about the only compromise I’ve seen from either side. Zelaya continues to insist that real negotiations can only happen after he’s restored to power.

Well, he appears to want to continue to make it about “him” than about “reform,” it seems. And, for some liberals and left-liberals blindly supporting him, other dictators have come to dictatorial power by starting with a populist appeal from the left. Juan Peron comes to mind in Latin America. Mussolini started as a socialist.

Speaking of that, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said the talks were “dead before they started.” Looks like Zelaya’s wagon remains tied to the same hitching post.

El Presidente de Venezuela es il Duce!

Venezuelan voters, by a 54-46 margin, approved a constitutional referendum removing all term limits from politicians. Say hello to President-for-Life Hugo Chavez.

MSLBs get in a tizzy about Hugo Chavez

Washington Monthly was the first blog I saw to rip Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez a new one ocver his comments about Barack Obama.

But, Steve Benen misses picking up on a few things.

First, and the preliminary point, many bloggers don't talk about a "bipartisan foreign policy establishment" just for their health. And neither did Chavez.

Second, while the assassination of Obama rhetoric is high, Chavez certainly might continue to fear that himself.

Third, let's not forget that his relations with the U.S. started going downhill during the Clinton Administration. I'm not saying whose fault that is, just making an observation.

Sean Penn on the real Hugo Chavez - as part of Tres Amigos

Penn pulls the mask of the mainstream media, Vice President-elect Joe Biden (and Obama?) and the rest of the turgid "bipartisan foreign policy establishment to take a look at the real Hugo Chavez.

And, no, this wasn't some touchy-feely Hollywood liberal thing.

Accompanying Penn were respected, renowned historian Douglas Brinkley, not a touchy-feely liberal in anybody's book, and the acerbic, skeptical, insightful political and intellectual wild card ... Christopher Hitchens.

It's a much more realistic report than the bullshit PBS put out yesterday on Frontline.

That said, the Raul Castro part wasn't quite so well. He would meet only with Penn, not Brinkley or Hitch, and not even with Penn's Hispanic majordomo riding shotgun. He said that was because he'd informally promised his first official interview as president to somebody else.

That said, did you know Cuba's military and that of the U.S. have held monthly meetings over Guantanamo-related issues for more than a dozen years? And that Raul is willing to open Cuba's offshore oil rights to foreign exploration? Castro also refutes (and has U.S. military conformation) the idea that Cuba sponsors drug smuggling.

That said, Penn asked about, and Castro denied the mass existence of, political prisoners in Cuba.

Read the full story for the real story on both Raul Castro and Hugo Chavez.

Chavez wants nuclear power

And you thought Bush and the neocons were crapping bricks about Iran!

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says he wants a nuclear reactor.

Add to the pants-crapping factor — Vlad the Impaler Putin has already offered Russian help, Chavez says.

Worldwatch roundup — Scientology, Chavez, Japanese glass ceiling, tundra Armageddon

Scientology is on trial in France. Charges? Fraud and illegal drug prescription.

The fraud is from an individual who bought an “electrometer,” which basically sounds like an (alleged) at-home gizmo to check your engrams, or tune in Scientologist John Travolta’s old “Kotter” episodes.

Can’t wait to see Tom Cruise go postal on the Champs Elysees. I’m sure Parisians can wait a long time for that.

More seriously, why can’t OUR government ever nail the ElRons on fraud charges?

Yuriko Koike’s goal? Become Japan’s first woman prime minister. She’s competing with three challengers to head Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which is by no means guaranteed retaining its hold on Parliament. She’s on the good side of relatively popular ex-PM Junichiro Koizumi.

Hugo Chavez tweaks the Yanqui nose in the White House by hosting some Russian warships.

Hugo says, “Go ahead and squeal, Yankees!”

And, since Palin-land is sounding more and more like a foreign country, and the Governor to Nowhere’s hubby once wanted it to be independent, you should take note …

Alaska will be home safe when the rapture comes.

Honduras makes left turn from U.S. to Chavez

Honduras, long considered a U.S. ally, is now cozying up to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Yesterday, it joined the Chavez-created Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas, or ALBA, based on complementary trade and cooperation instead of free-market competition.

Well, this should put a kink into CAFTA, too.

If Obama is a real progressive, he will embrace this move. We’ll see.

Short-term gain, long-term pain in Columbia hostage trickery

Yes, pretending that army units were aid workers got 15 hostages freed in Columbia from FARC, but in the long term, this has to backfire, I think.

An angry FARC will be on the lookout for more high-profile hostages, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will up his distrust of Columbian President Álvaro Uribe and, should McCain be elected president here, he also will be widely distrusted by Chavez and allies due to his getting a pre-hostage release briefing.

Hugo Chavez officially busted by Interpol on FARC

Interpol confirms that the computers found in Ecuador on a raid by the Columbian government, and allegedly belonging to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, are the real deal, were not tampered with by Columbian governmental officials, and have a shitload of data on them.

As the Guardian notes, a summit of Andean nations opens Friday in Peru. The shit is going to hit the fan this weekend. (I could almost consider this an early Friday scatblogging post, but that’s stretching it a bit.)

More seriously, I’m not sure where Peru’s President Toledo will break. And, while Chile is liberal, it’s not left-liberal; it will certainly come down on Columbia’s side.

Will Chavez say ‘eff you’ back to Bush?

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez doesn’t have to “explain … its conspiring” to anybody, especially not a Bush Administration that risks looking like Yanqui imperlialistas.

The U.S. is accusing Chavez of conspiring with Columbia’s FARC guerillas against its elected government:

“It will either have to commit itself to using its relationship with the FARC to promote peace or it will have to explain why members of its government are conspiring against a democratic neighbor,” Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannonsaid in a speech in California.

That’s after a FARC leader’s laptop allegedly, allegedly had info about FARC ties to some Venezuelan officials.

First, Columbia got the computer by a cross-border raid into Ecuador that inflamed tensions in northern South America. Second, although neither Chavez nor FARC leaders have denied the computer’s content, you never know with this administration. Stovepiping evidence is just one step away from planting evidence.

Hell, Columbia’s President Alvaro Uribe could have had the evidence planted before turning the computer over to Washington.

Second, just what does “conspiring” mean in Washington’s mind? Does Dick Cheney think Chavez was meeting with FARC leaders in Prague?

Third, even Bush, while mendacious about oil matters, isn’t that stupid about them.

What’s he going to do, announce a trade embargo against Venezuela and watch oil prices climb even higher? Yes, oil is fungible, but, indirect transport still jacks up prices, as does the worry of instability.

Hugo Chavez nationalizing fellow Latin Americans now

After nationalizing oil operations last year, this time, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is nationalizing his country’s largest steelmaker, after union talks broke down.

But, this isn’t ExxonMobil. Ternium-Sidor, which is majority owned by Argentina’s Techint. How well will the “Bolivarian Revolution” go amongst Chavez’s fellow non-Yanquis?

Oil, corn, soy, rice all surge as Bernanke wilts

Oil jumps past $126/bbl. Inflation in the Eurozone means the European Central Bank won’t be cutting rates anytime soon. And, with the EU economy larger than the US economy (yes, you read that right, we’re no longer the world’s largest unified economy), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s hands are tied and his efforts on the US economy more limp and impotent all the time, as he lives up to his moniker of Worst Fed Head Since Greenspan™.

The oil surge was prompted by Venezuela jitters as the country and President Hugo Chavez’s ties to FARC rebels in Columbia are closer than the US first thought. If the US tries sanctions against Chavez, he might just turn off the pumps. And, since most of the oil industry in Venezuela is nationalized, he can do that.

Ag costs surged because the USDA expects corn production to drop 7 percent this year due to wet-weather planting delays.

Soybean futures were up mildly, while rice futures in Asian stock markets climbed the maximum permissible. The Myanmar cyclone devastation is certain to have a major impact on its rice crop. And, if reports are true that the country could have 500,000 dead, obviously the rice harvest is problematic anyway.

Oh, and I guess somebody forgot to give Uncle Fester Cheney the memo that the US economy was no longer No. 1.

Tom Friedman smears Venezuela

Friedman claims that Venezuela is part of a sphere of non-democratic petro-autocracies.

No, Tom, no. Hugo Chavez willingly accepted that he did not win a referendum last year to expand his powers.

That said, Tom, your neo-neo friends inside the U.S. government, who backed the coup against Chavez four years ago, tried to make Venezuela into a non-democratic petro-autocracy, but you’ve seen fit not to mention that, either then or now.

Just remember that however flat the world is, it’s not as flat as Tom Friedman’s head.

News briefs – Obama joined by Anna Nicole in passport snoop, Hugo Chavez bros, RFK nuts

Passport snooping broader than politicians

Deceased former Playboy Playmate Anna Nicole Smith was among a number of non-political celebrities who join Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Barack Obama in having had their passports snooped into by State Department contract employees.

Chavez bros not so socialistic?

Two of Hugo Chavez’ brothers allegedly acquired 17 ranches in Venezuela; the National Assembly is investigating.

RFK conspiracy theories ready to launch

So-called “experts” claim Sirhan Sirhan could not have killed Bobby Kennedy. Please.

Pharmacist fined for denying birth control

States allow pharmacists to not refill birth control prescriptions themselves, but they have to refer a client to another pharmacist when they refuse themselves. Wisconsin pharmacist Neil Noesen thought he was above the law, but an appeals court has agreed with the state pharmacy board that he isn’t.

Ottawa complicit in Gitmo?

Canadian “interviewers” of terrorism suspectOmar Khadr reportedly violated his civil/human rights. Ottawa refuses to give his attorney info it gave U.S. interrogators after the sessions.

Exxon, Chavez battle heats up

Many months ago, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez started nationalizing ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips holdings in his country, which eXXXon has vigorously fought. Now, Triple-X has gotten Venezuelan assets frozen in several countries, up to $12 billion in value, pending winning an appeal of Chavez’ nationalization seizure.

Part of me likes Chavez keeping the U.S., and folks like Exxon, on their toes. Part of me likes how he is realigning Latin American politics. But part of me recognizes that he’s showing himself to be an idiot on heavy-oil oilfield development.

Knock each other silly, I hope.
Exxon, Chavez battle heats up