Although I cautioned yesterday that Democratic analysts might not want to count their chickens before they hatch, nonetheless, Electoral-Vote.com has good news for the Obama camp.
Unlike FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote uses three levels of campaign breakout, strong/weak/barely vs. just strong/weak in terms of Republican or Democratic chances. (On Electoral-Vote, “strong” means a support difference of 10 percent or more; “weak” means 5-9 percent difference; and “barely” means less than 5 percent. The states marked barely are statistical ties.
Anyway, Obama is over the 270-electoral vote mark just counting “strong” and “weak” states, there, without the “barelies” needed.
As of Friday, throwing out “barelies” on both sides, Obama held a 282-158 advantage; his base is a lot firmer, it seems.
Showing posts with label Intrade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Intrade. Show all posts
October 11, 2008
October 10, 2008
An early Intrade for 2010
Thomas Edsall is right; Obama needs not only to be prepared for a presidential transition, but a transition to the realities, not the Kumbaya, of the post-election economy.
However, he falls short in pegging just Obama. This will be a serious issue for Congressional Democrats as, and their two campaign committees, as well.
Talk of 60 Senate votes for a non-binding cloture-proof majority aside, Dems need to get all the Senate seats they can this time around, period.
If the economy, as many predict, winds up going WORSE into the tank next year (7.5 percent unemployment is already being predicted), the midterm elections will KILL Congressional Dems of both houses. I expect Senate Dems to lose 2/3 as many seats in 2010 as they gain this time around, and to lose the House outright.
That's my Intrade for the 2010 elections.
However, he falls short in pegging just Obama. This will be a serious issue for Congressional Democrats as, and their two campaign committees, as well.
Talk of 60 Senate votes for a non-binding cloture-proof majority aside, Dems need to get all the Senate seats they can this time around, period.
If the economy, as many predict, winds up going WORSE into the tank next year (7.5 percent unemployment is already being predicted), the midterm elections will KILL Congressional Dems of both houses. I expect Senate Dems to lose 2/3 as many seats in 2010 as they gain this time around, and to lose the House outright.
That's my Intrade for the 2010 elections.
September 27, 2008
Intrade Gadfly-style for the week of Sept. 27
Both FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote give Obama a majority in the electoral vote, with FiveThirtyEight.com giving him an outright majority in the popular vote, too.
That said, Electoral-Vote now projects the Senate breakout for the 111th Congress as 58-42. That’s 52 strong, 3 week and 3 barely. The GOP’s projected 42 has 1 barely and 2 weak, so, it is possible.
So, I’ll bump odds of 60 Senate Dems counting Lieberman to 15 percent. And, I’ll put 60 without him on the radar screen at 3 percent.
That’s still as high as I rank Rick Noriega’s chances here in Texas. National Guard down time for Ike, lack of money, and a less-than-dynamic campaign style mean sure defeat unless Cornyn has a huge gaffe in debates or Obama parachutes into Texas for more than just big-donor checks.
My odds on Obama-McCain are 56-44; as for the first debate, I give Obama a slight edge while saying neither one did that well. McCain had five or so clear lies of his own alone, to Obama’s one.
We had three bipartisan lies, on who started the Georgia-Russia war, on mistranslating Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and on throwing around tax breaks we can’t afford.
That said, Electoral-Vote now projects the Senate breakout for the 111th Congress as 58-42. That’s 52 strong, 3 week and 3 barely. The GOP’s projected 42 has 1 barely and 2 weak, so, it is possible.
So, I’ll bump odds of 60 Senate Dems counting Lieberman to 15 percent. And, I’ll put 60 without him on the radar screen at 3 percent.
That’s still as high as I rank Rick Noriega’s chances here in Texas. National Guard down time for Ike, lack of money, and a less-than-dynamic campaign style mean sure defeat unless Cornyn has a huge gaffe in debates or Obama parachutes into Texas for more than just big-donor checks.
My odds on Obama-McCain are 56-44; as for the first debate, I give Obama a slight edge while saying neither one did that well. McCain had five or so clear lies of his own alone, to Obama’s one.
We had three bipartisan lies, on who started the Georgia-Russia war, on mistranslating Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and on throwing around tax breaks we can’t afford.
September 20, 2008
Intrade Sept. 20 — Palin on ice; Lupe Valdez campaign and DMN mudslinging
Dallas Morning News op-ed writer Rod Dreher plays bigoted dirty tricks with Lupe Valdez (below)
With Sarah Palin having fundraisers and other appearances cancelled by the McCain-Palin campaign, I offer 50-50 odds that she’s on ice until the vice-presidential debate, given all the different reasons she has for being on ice right now.
If Palin’s rise was worth a boost to Senate GOP hopes of stanching the bleeding, as the Post details here, then how much damage does the bursting of her bubble cause?
I’ll give the Dems a 20 percent chance now of hitting 58 seats, Joementum included. I would still love to see them hit 60, Lieberman counted, to see the carnage of how much Harry Reid would kiss Lieberman’s butt on cloture issues. Hey, I like schadenfreude.
Per the Post story, Liddy Dole’s re-election race in North Carolina will be a harbinger of Senate Dem chances.
That said, let’s go to FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote for some presidential and Senate look-see.
The two sites differ pretty significantly on the presidential race. As of early Saturday, E-V was at 265-252 McCain, with Pennsylvania tied. 538 breaks it out at 303-235 Obama, a 50-vote difference. It lists PA as “safely Dem,” the second-highest level, and sees North Carolina less firmly in the Republican camp. I think 538 is a bit too optimistic; it all depends on how the rush of economic-related news plays out politically.
Neither site offers much hope to Rick Noriega against John Cornyn; 538 rates it 93 percent likely Cornyn will win. IMO, I still say Noreiga didn’t do much early other than running on his military career, and that didn’t work for John Kerry in 2004. And, he didn’t have Watts’ personal money to spend on ads. Wrong candidate, Dems, and not the first time in recent years.
Dallas County Sheriff? Earlier this week, I offered an official personal endorsement of incumbent Democratic Sheriff Lupe Valdez, or more, an anti-endorsement of GOP challenger Lowell Cannaday.
I stand firmly behind that, despite, on the horse-race side, knowing that Dallas Morning News editorial writer Rod Dreher’s offensive wedge politics over a sensitivity to sexual preferences survey the Sheriff’s Department used for the first time but that the Dallas PD has used for 15 years.
Even for you, Rod, this is a cheap-shit tactic and you know it, Rod.
Drop Rod a line.
And, as I blogged earlier today, this appears to be the Dallas Metroplex’s version of the “vast right-wing conspiracy” ginning up here.
With Sarah Palin having fundraisers and other appearances cancelled by the McCain-Palin campaign, I offer 50-50 odds that she’s on ice until the vice-presidential debate, given all the different reasons she has for being on ice right now.
If Palin’s rise was worth a boost to Senate GOP hopes of stanching the bleeding, as the Post details here, then how much damage does the bursting of her bubble cause?
I’ll give the Dems a 20 percent chance now of hitting 58 seats, Joementum included. I would still love to see them hit 60, Lieberman counted, to see the carnage of how much Harry Reid would kiss Lieberman’s butt on cloture issues. Hey, I like schadenfreude.
Per the Post story, Liddy Dole’s re-election race in North Carolina will be a harbinger of Senate Dem chances.
That said, let’s go to FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote for some presidential and Senate look-see.
The two sites differ pretty significantly on the presidential race. As of early Saturday, E-V was at 265-252 McCain, with Pennsylvania tied. 538 breaks it out at 303-235 Obama, a 50-vote difference. It lists PA as “safely Dem,” the second-highest level, and sees North Carolina less firmly in the Republican camp. I think 538 is a bit too optimistic; it all depends on how the rush of economic-related news plays out politically.
Neither site offers much hope to Rick Noriega against John Cornyn; 538 rates it 93 percent likely Cornyn will win. IMO, I still say Noreiga didn’t do much early other than running on his military career, and that didn’t work for John Kerry in 2004. And, he didn’t have Watts’ personal money to spend on ads. Wrong candidate, Dems, and not the first time in recent years.
Dallas County Sheriff? Earlier this week, I offered an official personal endorsement of incumbent Democratic Sheriff Lupe Valdez, or more, an anti-endorsement of GOP challenger Lowell Cannaday.
I stand firmly behind that, despite, on the horse-race side, knowing that Dallas Morning News editorial writer Rod Dreher’s offensive wedge politics over a sensitivity to sexual preferences survey the Sheriff’s Department used for the first time but that the Dallas PD has used for 15 years.
Even for you, Rod, this is a cheap-shit tactic and you know it, Rod.
Drop Rod a line.
And, as I blogged earlier today, this appears to be the Dallas Metroplex’s version of the “vast right-wing conspiracy” ginning up here.
September 13, 2008
Gadfly Intrade wrap for Sept. 7-13
A bad week for Obama — slide must be arrested before first debate
I wouldn’t narrow my analysis of “why” to Obama’s not nominating Clinton as Veep, contrary to this blogger (while not denying there may be a woman’s issues angle) but, on my Intrade for this week, I’ll put McCain over Obama at 55/45 odds. That’s a big shift from the 55-45 Obama I had a week ago, but well warranted.
Why?
E.J. Dionne says Obama “has lost control of this campaign.”
Tom Friedman says Obama needs toget off the Valium.
Rich Cohen says he’s being Swift-boated.
In a wrap earlier this week, I ask if his campaign is “floundering or directionless.”
And, both there and floundering or directionless, I noted the Missing Joe Biden.
This all said, not all of Obama’s problems are of his own making. He’s got a lot of “Bradley effect” to overcome in Appalachia and nearby areas.
Now, more on my analysis of how Obama was, to put it bluntly, blown his campaign ever since Denver.
First, the Obama camp should have anticipated SOME woman being considered for Veep, and even if it was not ready for Palin, it should have had more woman surrogates ready to roll. Sens. Feinstein, Murray, Klobuchar and Stabenow all spring to mind. Apparently, they didn’t spring to mind for Obama.
Second, once Palin was rolled out, even better than the woman senators, Govs. Sebelius, Napolitano and Granholm should have topped the surrogate list. Again, these surrogates were missing from the mind of Obama.
Third, where is Biden, per above links?
Fourth, If Obama’s “can’t send an e-mail” ad is a “harder edge,” let’s go ahead and write a loss down in the D column now and beat the rush.
That all said, since I’m not a Democrat, and I’ve never drunk the Obama Kool-Aid, I’ll have plenty of schadenfreude for the postmortem after Nov. 4, should this continue to play out this way.
As for election related sites, Electoral-Vote agrees, now listing the breakdown at 270-268 McCain, including moving Virginia from “toss-up” to “barely GOP.” Also, North Carolina is now running “strong GOP.”
FiveThirtyEight.com is also in agreement, with an electoral vote split of 277-261, with Colorado now in its “lean McCain” campaign and giving him an absolute majority in the popular vote.
On the Senate, a cloture-proof Democratic Senate? Still at 10-90, and contrary to last week, I don’t think I’m putting that too low. (Electoral-Vote’s latest breakout is that the next Senate will be 56-44.) I think that, if Obama remains in this campaign mode, he’s going to start being a lead anchor in some races. FiveThirtyEight has 56-43 with one tossup.
In short, this has definitely been the worst week for Democrats since Obama put a wrap on the Democratic nomination.
In Texas, Cornyn’s popularity/approval numbers at Electoral-Vote are actually up a tick, and the Noriega education plan PR campaign this week didn’t gain much MSM traction.
In Dallas County, I’m still arbitrarily leaving the sheriff’s race at 50-50.
I wouldn’t narrow my analysis of “why” to Obama’s not nominating Clinton as Veep, contrary to this blogger (while not denying there may be a woman’s issues angle) but, on my Intrade for this week, I’ll put McCain over Obama at 55/45 odds. That’s a big shift from the 55-45 Obama I had a week ago, but well warranted.
Why?
E.J. Dionne says Obama “has lost control of this campaign.”
Tom Friedman says Obama needs toget off the Valium.
Rich Cohen says he’s being Swift-boated.
In a wrap earlier this week, I ask if his campaign is “floundering or directionless.”
And, both there and floundering or directionless, I noted the Missing Joe Biden.
This all said, not all of Obama’s problems are of his own making. He’s got a lot of “Bradley effect” to overcome in Appalachia and nearby areas.
Now, more on my analysis of how Obama was, to put it bluntly, blown his campaign ever since Denver.
First, the Obama camp should have anticipated SOME woman being considered for Veep, and even if it was not ready for Palin, it should have had more woman surrogates ready to roll. Sens. Feinstein, Murray, Klobuchar and Stabenow all spring to mind. Apparently, they didn’t spring to mind for Obama.
Second, once Palin was rolled out, even better than the woman senators, Govs. Sebelius, Napolitano and Granholm should have topped the surrogate list. Again, these surrogates were missing from the mind of Obama.
Third, where is Biden, per above links?
Fourth, If Obama’s “can’t send an e-mail” ad is a “harder edge,” let’s go ahead and write a loss down in the D column now and beat the rush.
That all said, since I’m not a Democrat, and I’ve never drunk the Obama Kool-Aid, I’ll have plenty of schadenfreude for the postmortem after Nov. 4, should this continue to play out this way.
As for election related sites, Electoral-Vote agrees, now listing the breakdown at 270-268 McCain, including moving Virginia from “toss-up” to “barely GOP.” Also, North Carolina is now running “strong GOP.”
FiveThirtyEight.com is also in agreement, with an electoral vote split of 277-261, with Colorado now in its “lean McCain” campaign and giving him an absolute majority in the popular vote.
On the Senate, a cloture-proof Democratic Senate? Still at 10-90, and contrary to last week, I don’t think I’m putting that too low. (Electoral-Vote’s latest breakout is that the next Senate will be 56-44.) I think that, if Obama remains in this campaign mode, he’s going to start being a lead anchor in some races. FiveThirtyEight has 56-43 with one tossup.
In short, this has definitely been the worst week for Democrats since Obama put a wrap on the Democratic nomination.
In Texas, Cornyn’s popularity/approval numbers at Electoral-Vote are actually up a tick, and the Noriega education plan PR campaign this week didn’t gain much MSM traction.
In Dallas County, I’m still arbitrarily leaving the sheriff’s race at 50-50.
September 08, 2008
Intrade, Gadfly style
Yes, “Intrade” is probably copyrighted by the folks who started the concept but, short of “Horsetrade” or something like that, no eye-catching name has come to me yet.
OK, let’s keep this simple, and in percentages.
First, even though Palin is “started the concept,” that’s not the same as her getting the boot from the ticket.
So, Palin withdrawal/booting odds? 6 percent. With Schmuck Talk Express™ himself striving to quash Troopergate, she's not going away.
Obama vs. McCain? 55-45. I’ll tackle a guesstimate on third-party percentages and such starting in a week, but that will come; can’t have just the duopoly listed.
For more insight yourself, Electoral-Vote is invaluable.
FiveThirtyEight.com is better in some ways, with Intrade-type odds lines. It also isn’t afraid to critique things like ad quality from the presidential candidates.
Meanwhile, of course, the real Intrade is all about wagering, right? Well, some high muckety-mucks from various European Union countries and the EU bureaucracy have also For more insight yourself, placed their bets.
Cloture-proof Democratic Senate? 10-90. (I’m deliberately putting that on the low side, but, honestly, I don’t think it’s going to happen.)
And, what if the Dems get 59 Senators? Rather than boot Joementum out of the caucus, will they instead beg and plead with him to make 60? Or, will they try to get some GOPer to turn… hmmm.
On the Texas state level, now…
Cornyn-Noriega: 57-43. Sorry, but I just don’t feel Rick Noriega burning up the bushes. Psst., Rick… like McCain, you have to run on something more than military service. (FiveThirtyEight.com lists this seat as strongly leaning Cornyn.)
Noriega has not translated his Lege service into a winning campaign message. Also, he does not have Mikal Watts' money, nor much from the DSCC, and also does not have Watts' other pluses, which I thought Noriega would have transcended by now.
Electoral-Vote’s Senate tracker covers Cornyn-Noriega and all other Senate races. Per its link to Texas Senate race polling, you can see why I remain bullish on Cornyn — but NOT personally, of course!
Dems regaining the Texas House? 40-60
And, here in Dallas County?
Valdez-Cannady for sheriff: (Again, a pet peeve — why do we elect sheriffs?) 50-50. This race boils down to what Dallas power broker John Wiley Price does or does not say or do for Valdez.
And, a commodities shot:
Oil below $100/bbl this year? 20-80.
The Guardian tells us OPEC, next week, will fight hard and plot strategy to keep it above $100/bbl.
And, on the personal side?
Odds of me voting Obama instead of McKinney? Less than 10 percent, and that's charitable.
Tune in next week!
OK, let’s keep this simple, and in percentages.
First, even though Palin is “started the concept,” that’s not the same as her getting the boot from the ticket.
So, Palin withdrawal/booting odds? 6 percent. With Schmuck Talk Express™ himself striving to quash Troopergate, she's not going away.
Obama vs. McCain? 55-45. I’ll tackle a guesstimate on third-party percentages and such starting in a week, but that will come; can’t have just the duopoly listed.
For more insight yourself, Electoral-Vote is invaluable.
FiveThirtyEight.com is better in some ways, with Intrade-type odds lines. It also isn’t afraid to critique things like ad quality from the presidential candidates.
Meanwhile, of course, the real Intrade is all about wagering, right? Well, some high muckety-mucks from various European Union countries and the EU bureaucracy have also For more insight yourself, placed their bets.
Cloture-proof Democratic Senate? 10-90. (I’m deliberately putting that on the low side, but, honestly, I don’t think it’s going to happen.)
And, what if the Dems get 59 Senators? Rather than boot Joementum out of the caucus, will they instead beg and plead with him to make 60? Or, will they try to get some GOPer to turn… hmmm.
On the Texas state level, now…
Cornyn-Noriega: 57-43. Sorry, but I just don’t feel Rick Noriega burning up the bushes. Psst., Rick… like McCain, you have to run on something more than military service. (FiveThirtyEight.com lists this seat as strongly leaning Cornyn.)
Noriega has not translated his Lege service into a winning campaign message. Also, he does not have Mikal Watts' money, nor much from the DSCC, and also does not have Watts' other pluses, which I thought Noriega would have transcended by now.
Electoral-Vote’s Senate tracker covers Cornyn-Noriega and all other Senate races. Per its link to Texas Senate race polling, you can see why I remain bullish on Cornyn — but NOT personally, of course!
Dems regaining the Texas House? 40-60
And, here in Dallas County?
Valdez-Cannady for sheriff: (Again, a pet peeve — why do we elect sheriffs?) 50-50. This race boils down to what Dallas power broker John Wiley Price does or does not say or do for Valdez.
And, a commodities shot:
Oil below $100/bbl this year? 20-80.
The Guardian tells us OPEC, next week, will fight hard and plot strategy to keep it above $100/bbl.
And, on the personal side?
Odds of me voting Obama instead of McKinney? Less than 10 percent, and that's charitable.
Tune in next week!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)