Once again, that Texas Miracle ... isn't

Via Local Profile, an online mag for Collin County, we learn that Texas is the third-worst state for people in financial distress.

The only two worse? Louisiana and Mississippi. So, in the non-toilet-bowl world, when you're behind even West Virginia and New Mexico, you're the worst.

Here's two specifics. The first is credit scores:

According to WalletHub, one reason for such a high ranking for the 8th largest economy in the world is the low credit card scores of its residents. As previously reported by Local Profile, the average American is just below the bottom of the ‘good’ credit range, which is 700 and the beginning of the ‘excellent’ credit range is 750. But in Texas, that number drops to 674, which isn’t bad, but it’s bad enough for grating the state the 6th worst credit score in the U.S.

The second is personal bankruptcies:

However, another finding of the report might be more worrisome. In the past year, Texas saw a whopping 21% increase in non-business bankruptcy filings, ranking number 1 in that category.

That's not even ahead of Louisiana and Mississippi.

The state's also 10th-worst in mortgage delinquincies.

Wonder how much of this is Californicators finding out the truth about Texas property taxes while burning through the AC in this year's Texas summer?

And, from the Trib and related? Homeowners insurance rates jumped 22 percent this year. Climate change issues the primary cause. Got it, Californicators who might be trying to flee that issue in California? The story adds that Texas premiums are among the highest in the nation but may actually be underpriced. Next step? Will some insurers stop writing policies in Texas, as is the case in California?

Schadenfreude is a biatch!

Is the Texas economy fixing to implode?

The so-called Texas Miracle, whether under Rick Perry's name or Greg Abbott's, has always been based on two things:

1. Robust oil profits;
2. Lots of cheap immigration.

Well, wingnuts of the Dan Patrick stripe, along with Trump federally, have gnawed away at the second.

And now, the first looks in trouble. (As does the smaller scale Permian-driven "New Mexico miracle"; see end of post for more.)

Non-coronavirus bad news for the Texas economy popped up Friday. Talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia for extending the OPEC+ expanded oil producers agreement broke down, and oil prices tanked along with it. WTI had been below $50/bbl before that, making the great majority of fracking wells in the Permian Basin unprofitable. We're now officially in Ponzi scheme territory, where the only reason companies will drill is fear of losing overvalued leases that cannibalize each other as is, as I've blogged about in recent weeks. Whether it will get as bad as what Aubrey McClendon inflicted on Chesapeake in the gas biz remains to be seen. It's not likely, but it's certainly possible.

And, at end of biz on Friday? West Texas Intermediate was at $42/bbl. And, it got worse over the weekend. The Saudis, after initial indications that they couldn't afford to fight the Russians, started doing so, first with a price splash. By last night, WTI was trading around $30 a barrel. There will be some bounce-back, to be sure. But, no way it gets back above $45 for some time.

And even that isn't likely any time close to soon. Goddam Sachs said oil could drop into the $20s, at least with spot dips, and its prediction is that WTI will remain in the $30s for the rest of the second and third quarters.

“The prognosis for the oil market is even more dire than in November 2014, when such a price war last started, as it comes to a head with the significant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus,” the firm added.

In addition, the Dallas Fed has already reported that hiring is flat out in the Permian. And, related to that, that rents have finally flattened.

Russia made clear, per that first link, that it wants this. Remember, the Saudis tried to force such a collapse a few years ago under MBS' pushing, but couldn't pull it off. Russia is less dependent on oil as a somewhat smaller sector of its economy and can take lower oil prices.

Update, Monday evening —

Oh, goodie! We get to read Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar give us some PR spin a passel of lies about the state of the Texas economy:

“The fundamentals of the Texas economy remain strong. The agency is monitoring weakness in financial markets, including commodities and energy markets. We have been tracking revenues carefully since markets began to soften. 

 "Certainly, Texas has exposure if oil prices remain depressed for a sustained period of time, and slowdowns in economic activity related to the COVID-19 outbreak could also be a headwind. We are still only six months into the current budget cycle, however, and it is too early to tell with certainty how current fluctuations will impact long-term economic performance and state revenues."

Yeah, nice try, Glenn. With half the new oil in the Permian actually being halfway to condensate, and between that and increasing water cuts, half the new drilling in the Permian being underwater, this would be a lie even before last Friday. OilPrice.com is predicting a daily surplus of 3 million barrels by the end of the second quarter.

That said, the amount of trouble oil majors as well as oil minors already face over economically unviable fracking says that the Saudis three years or whatever ago actually pulled it off more than they knew. Don't think the Russians don't know that, as well.

There's also the geopolitical angle. As it looks to extend its reach in Syria in particular and the Middle East in general (Yemen, anybody?) Putin wouldn't mind weakening Saudi Aramco, and some of the government it supports, just as much as ExxonMobil. Or it wouldn't mind continuing to help the legitimate government of Venezuela.

The flip side is that nationally, Larry Kudlow has already made murmurings of selective business help in the country's economy as needed. This also, of course, shows that other than in libertarian wet dreams, and the public speaking out of them, that the Platonic idea of capitalism simply doesn't exist.

I guess a silver lining is that a slowdown in drilling, per that second link, will delay Peak Permian by a couple of months. That said, at the fringes of the Permian, reinforcing what I said about companies seeking out marginal drilling, Apache is withdrawing from the Balmorhea area after claiming it had the secret sauce to find deposits in the Alpine formation there.

Another silver lining? This is possibly the best refudiation yet of #TheResistance that claims Trump is and has been colluding with Russia.

Update, March 30: DeSmog Blog now notes that many refineries are likely to be shuttering in weeks ahead. The typical refinery can't cut production below about 65 percent without shutting down whole units. The problem is a complex one, and more complex than in previous hydrocarbon gluts. A number of these refineries are on the Texas Gulf Coast, including one in Baytown that Exxon has already announced it is shutting.

==

And, despite Joe Monahan's denialism, the problems (and rightful concern) are spreading to New Mexico. Update: The state has officially banned public gatherings of more than 100 people.

The truth on #conservative #SJW ideas and #climatechange, vs. Erica Greider of Texas Monthly

Using the term "philosobabble" as a philosophy-related counterpart to "psychobabble," Texas Monthly's Erica Greider engaged injust that earlier this week.

I quote from the third graf of her "Skeptics and Scare Stories":

For the record, though I’m not a scientist, I don’t doubt the scientific consensus that climate change is real and anthropogenic. At the same time, I don’t often feel oppressed by other people’s metaphysical and epistemological premises, and I rarely see a need to litigate such questions before policy discussions.

Beyond philosobabble in general, this did turn on a light bulb for me.

I had never thought before that conservatives could be labeled with the "social justice warrior" moniker often used to tag vapid, pseudo-intellectual thought of sections of the New New Left.

But,  there it is and there you have it. If some New Lefter were talking about whether or not they "feel oppressed by other people’s metaphysical and epistemological premises," we'd be on that like white on SJW rice.

Let's go on:

I … can’t recall asking any elected officials if they believe in anthropogenic climate change. I’ve asked people why they don’t believe in climate change. … But I’m hard-pressed to think of a scenario where I would find it relevant to ask Greg Abbott whether he believes in anthropogenic climate change.

Really? You wouldn't ask why this motivates him, both as AG and now as governor, to continue to sue the federal government? You wouldn't ask how much this is behind his infamous "I wake up and sue Obama" mantra? You won't ask why he keeps doing this even though he loses more than he wins and is the state's chief waster of taxpayer money, despite his claims, AND yours, to be fiscal conservatives?

Wouldn't you also ask him why, per the NewYork Times, he's now in the minority, not among Americans, not among Republicans, though he is in both counts, but, why he's in a minority of self-described conservative Republicans? 

See, that's just being a bad, or lazy, reporter. Or being an opiner/pundit while pretending to be a reporter.

And, it's not limited to climate change.

From earlier in the article.

Occasionally, for example, I’ve had occasion to ask legislators if they believe that human life begins at conception. I’ve never asked any of them how old they think the planet is; I don’t see why that question would even come up during the course of reporting.

And, again, why not?

Given that the so-called "intelligent design" movement has allies in the Texas Legislature; given that the State Board of Education has a history of trying to import bad science as well as bad history into Texas textbooks, you don't think this question would ever come up in the course of reporting on something like teaching evolution in public schools?

Back to climate change, though. Creating straw men may be a tool for a pundit, albeit not a good tool. But, it’s not a tool for a reporter. One can be both; it’s part of the community newspaper world.

However, one must know which mindset to use and when. Therefore, talking about reporting, not opining on this issue, while creating straw men like this:

Slowing climate change, after all, isn’t the easiest task imaginable. It would require drastic reductions in total global emissions of greenhouse gases; that would require most of the world’s industrialized nations to commit to major changes in their current consumption and production—course corrections that most countries would find costly and painful. Denouncing American conservatives for driving their gas-guzzlers all over the common good of humankind? That’s comparatively easy.

Is unacceptable.

Greider talks about the moral side:

According to many environmentalists, journalists who fail to ask such questions are being wantonly negligent about their responsibilities to the public interest.

It’s actually not that. It’s a question of journalistic ethics. And, you’ve shown that you don’t have much, if any.

So, let’s get back to that New York Times story, as it would inform you, Erica, how to actually do reporting on this issue:

North Carolina businessman Jay Faison and the Republican pollsters said that in order to avoid that characterization, Republicans need to move beyond questioning and start offering solutions.

Problem is, most Republican respondents reject regulatory solutions. They’d probably, even more, reject carbon taxes and carbon tariffs.

Which means they’re like Republicans on health care. They want to kill Obamacare, which is flawed in some ways, badly flawed in others, but which is a step forward compared to what we had before in a number of ways.

They don’t offer any solutions for a replacement, though. They just want to kill it.

That said, the same 54-percent majority supports a carbon tax — if rebated.

But, that’s either ignorance or a red herring. Rebating carbon taxes would take an additional bureaucratic infrastructure. And, if rebated to companies spewing carbon, not consumers, would eliminate the carbon tax being applied anyway. It would be robbing Peter to pay Peter. Duh.

Speaking of regulations, Greider then erects another straw man:

But if a supermajority of Texas is open to the idea of Congress (Congress!) passing regulations (regulations!) about energy production (energy production!) in order to reduce global warming, I don’t understand how environmentalists can, in good conscience, insist on the premise that the critical barrier to international action is rampant denialism about whether global warming is even real.

First, that “if” is just that. She knows no such supermajority exists.  And I don’t know why “energy production” is repeated in the parentheses.

Maybe the disinvestment drive will continue to gather enough steam until it hoists carbon polluters by a capitalist petard. Or an investment drive in publicly traded renewables companies, since renewables have now passed all fossil fuels combined in installations.

Second, why a "supermajority"? Is it because, if Faison is right, a simple majority already exists, even in Tejas?

Third, she knows that denialism lite 1, and denialism lite 2, exist, as well as full on denialism.

Denialism lite 1 is that, yes, humans have “some part” in global warming, but, it’s not that much.

Denialism lite 2, related, is that AGW’s effects are nothing to worry about, that humans have always changed the climate, etc.

But, I want to get back one last time to the conservative SJW angle. Between exchanges on Twitter, and even more, an exchange of comments on her blog post, she comes off to me as being at least as narcissistic as any new left type SJW. Per my skeptical and atheist friends, yep, I'd rank her in the same territory as Rebecca Watson.

And, yes, I wanted that long of a header, and hashtags, and all, since she thankfully made my light bulb come on about conservative SJWs.

Hat tip to Off the Kuff for bringing this particular stupidity to my attention.

(Sidebar: Her long history of wrongness includes believing that Rick Perry had an actual Texas miracle, when what he really has was lots of illegal immigrants. And created Big Gummint jobs. And, has a dysfunctional government.)

#RickPerry 2.0 and #RickPerrysTexasMiracle = Kinky Friedman 1.0

Being against Dodd-Frank and attacking big banks in the same breath, as former Texas Gov. Perry did in his presidential campaign announcement, is about like Utopia dogcatcher, novelist, raconteur and independent Texas gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman favoring legalizing pot, on the one hand, and putting public-led prayer in public schools on the other hand.

Both represent pandering at high levels of shamelessness and low levels of artfulness.

As for his alleged economic miracles while governing Tejas? It was about oil and illegal immigration. That's why I said "hasty lumbago" to him when he announced he wasn't running for re-election. Most Republicans, including in Tejas, want to cut the immigration pipeline to zero. The oil part of that? Rick Perry didn't invent fracking, and the Saudis have now found how to undercut it on price.

So, move along, folks. Per the saying in Perry's own Texas?

All hat, no cattle.

And, let's not forget, per the picture, that abuse of power indictment hanging over his head.

Yes, Houston, we appear to maybe have a recession

Chris Tomlinson of the Chronicle gives us the overview of economies both Texas and federal that are struggling.

Higher oil prices may have some in the energy industry rejoicing, but there is growing evidence that the local and national economies are faring a little worse in this downturn than expected.
 When oil began plummeting last fall, analysts expected the lower gasoline prices to boost consumer spending, while local observers bragged about how the regional economy was no longer dependent on oil and gas. But consumers are not spending their extra cash, and Houston's economy is not as shockproof as many people touted.
 The U.S. economy also may have slipped into recession in the first quarter, and that means it won't offset Houston's slowdown as much as anticipated.

None of this should be any surprised.

After the "end" of the Great Recession (scare quotes needed), the rich got richer, and the middle class, as well as the poor, got plenty of nothing. There's been millions of stories written about stagnant wages in the last 3-4 years for anybody not part of the 1 percent. Along with people using more of what income they had to pay down old debt, that means there's not been an explosion of new consumer purchases the past four years. And, that probably has led to a mild second recession.

Texas? Chris goes on to remind that half of Houston's jobs have at least some connection to the energy sector. That number is probably about 30 percent in the Metroplex, 50 percent in Amarillo and Lubbock or more, certainly more in the Permian, and maybe 10 percent in San Antonio with the shale boom.

Well, we know what happened to the shale boom.

And, despite cuts in overhead costs, that boom won't return any time soon. First, the Saudis aren't going to stop or cut pumping. Second, Brazil and Russia are ramping up. 

Thus, there is STILL surplus oil sloshing around the system. That's part of why oil will likely remain below $100/bbl for a full decade.

Maybe recession is too harsh, but it's likely that stagnation will be the word of the day for at least months, if not a couple of years, ahead.

And, parts of the economy that are growing could help by starting to pay people more.

Otherwise, yes, this shows that "Rick Perry's Texas Miracle" was based in large part on a single-issue economy of oil — along with a second-issue economy of high levels of Hispanic immigration, as much as tea partiers want to try to deny that. I've written about that plenty of times before. Click the "RickPerrysTexasMiracle" label. 

On the other hand, we have two counterpoints.

First, housing starts went through the roof in April.

And, per that pull quote from Chris' piece? National first-quarter economic numbers have been undermeasured for decades, for whatever reason.

It's possible the Texas economy is moving into recession. The national one? Probably not.

Rick Perry to announce that ..

He's running for 7th place in what will be a 9-person GOP field after he makes the first of his three announcements on June 4 in Dallas. The second will be on June 5, followed by one planned for June 6 that he will of course forget about and thus have only two actual announcements.

So, that part's snark. Finishing higher than 7th place?

Well, that would put him ahead of Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson.

Going "meta," isn't an announcement of an announcement itself still an announcement?

Otherwise, I got nothing.

And, other than a half-empty bottle of back pain meds, neither does Rick.

Meanwhile, wife Anita is Tweeting out that:

(Gov. Perry and) I have been discussing the future of this great country and how our family can play a role.

I got your answer right here:

How can you "Play a role"? Double, or quadruple, his back pain meds? Then offer the same to the other eight GOP candidates?

Now, I got nothing, and neither do you or the hubster. Order more back pain meds. 

$60 oil looks locked in for next year — consequences both good and bad

First, Saudi Arabia has planned for oil to trade from the upper $50s to the low $60s next year. (And, in case it's not clear, when I talk about "$60 ... locked in," I'm talking about a range. Details of my guesstimates near the bottom.)

Yes, that means a budget deficit for the government, but "only" about 15 percent, which is still a bit less than the current US deficit, and easily handled by the Saudis.

Second, the Saudis are OK with the price going even lower. It's probably true that Russia and Iran are their main targets, but per this story, US fracking may be in their gunsights as well.

That said, I doubt that oil prices take a sustained drop below $55, but, it's certainly possible they flirt with $50/bbl for the next few months, with them continuing to slide now.

Effect? While it may be good overall globally, it will have fallout otherwise.

Russia is probably headed not just for recession, but a near-depression recession. Given today's Russian political news, more unrest is possible, as is harsher crackdown by Vlad the Impaler Putin.

Venezuela is likely headed in the same direction financially. Possibly a milder version of the same political results.

Not sure how this might affect religious tensions in Nigeria.

I'm sure that it won't be fantastic for Mexico.

And, domestically? Texas may also face some sort of recession even as Tricky Ricky Perry, with his exit, dodges the consequences of his alleged "miracle" collapsing.

Given that Gov. Greg Strangeabbott appealed John Dietz's Texas school finance ruling, weaker oil revenues could be a signal for him to side with wingnuts in the Texas Lege and slash at schools and other portions of the state budget.

The Texas state revenue stream faces a bit of a double whammy here, per the Dallas Morning News. First, state production taxes are based on the per-barrel price, which has of course nose-dived. Second, if less is being produced, of course, there's less to tax. That means the idea of giving TxDOT extra money out of the Rainy Day Fund (rather than something sensical like mandate 100 percent of state gas tax money go to transportation, then raise TAXES! elsewhere as needed), roads could get hamstrung again. (Cue up the toll roads Batsignal.)

That said, it's ridiculous that the state gas tax, which is a per-gallon rate, not a price-based rate, hasn't been changed since 1991.

Oil just has to stay at around the $60 for a couple more months to put significant crimps on US fracking for another six months after that. (I disagree with the SMU prof in the Snooze piece who expects oil to bottom out in another month or two and hit $75 relatively quickly thereafter.)

I wouldn't be surprised if it's at $65 or a touch higher by midsummer, but, it could slump back to near $60 again by September 2015.

It should be noted that tar sands oil will likely NOT be greatly affected at current prices; it would probably take sustained prices of $45 or so for that to happen. Therefore, with a new Congress about to enter into office, President Obama will have to face Keystone XL issues once again.

Meanwhile, even with the budgetary challenges, Saudi Arabia itself is likely among the net winners, primarily for all these geo-petro-political reasons.

Hasty lumbago to Rick Perry

Time to stop looking a bit less smug, Tricky Ricky.
Besides, at The Response, your prayer for rain
didn't work either. Patrick Michaels/Texas Observer

For those unfamiliar with my snark, that's my riff on "Hasta la vista."

Rick Perry is finally about to "Hit the road, Jack," and permanently, and about time.

Or, as I said this spring, quoting his own words when he announced he wasn't running for re-election?

"Adios, Mofo."

Tricky Ricky's got just days left in the governor's mansion in Austin, and it's time to move on from reality to reminisces.

What's next for the old Trickster?

Well, although he remains officially coy, and unlike Jeb Bush, isn't officially exploring anything yet, I think we know.

Per his 2012 back medication drugs-fueled math failure, it's surely not long before he hits the road on another quest to pass the Monty Python "count to three" test:



Among other things, in another quest for the presidency that will be more futile than Graham Chapman as Arthur's failed attempt to capture the Grail.

The reality is that, despite alleged diversification of Texas' economy, a lot of it still depends on oil, and a fair amount on gas. The only other reason for his alleged Texas miracle is that housing prices didn't get as "bubbly" in Texas 7 years ago as oil and gas did earlier this year.

So, the "Texas miracle" is crumbling just as Perry leaves office, with his successor, Gov. Strangeabbott, quite possibly facing a recession of some sort, along with the fact that transportation $$ ticketed as coming from the Rainy Day Fund maybe won't.

And as for people who say "don't worry so much," it's not just exploration jobs; it's Big Oil slashing management and more, as the Halliburton-Baker Hughes deal details. It is also refining jobs, petrochemical jobs and more.

And, that all said, Perry's leaving Abbott with a revamped governor's office, with its power at a height not seen since Reconstruction. Per the story, though, it's likely Abbott will fritter some of it away for various reasons.

Beyond that, the rest of the alleged Texas Miracle was due in fair part to something the likes of Dan Patrick, in particular, won't admit — immigration, including and especially illegal immigration.

I blogged in detail this spring about both issues — oil and gas, for one, and illegal immigration for the other, as the "Texas miracle."

Hasta la vista, indeed; Perry was halfway enlightened, at least for a Republican, on the immigration issue, before his last term in office. Abbott will likely be Neanderthal, and we know that Dan Patrick is a sub-human Australopithecine on the issue.

Otehr than that, Rick Perry's Texas Miracle included regressive taxes and fees, income segregation, ignored rural areas, and stiffed the state's public schools.

And, it was dying before this. The ongoing drought is a definite damper, and while 2015 isn't supposed to be drier than normal, it's not supposed to be above average, either.

But, don't cry for Rick Perry, Austin. He won't be spending all of his time gallivanting in Iowa and New Hampshire. If nothing else, he has some self-imposed courtroom dates. (Per a poll here which just closed, unscientifically, two-thirds of respondents think Perry will get nothing more than a fine should he plea guilty or be convicted.)

Texas GOP? #Fracking bubble more reason to stop depleting Rainy Day Fund

The Texas Republican Party, rather than being responsible, and actually paying for general budget items out of the general budget, seems to be getting ever more fond of having voters make the tough choices for them by passing constitutional amendments to pay for necessary water supply improvements (Proposition 6, last year) and transportation upgrades (Proposition 1, this year). Unfortunately, for the second straight year, voters were suckers at the polls.

Not only is this an abdication of GOP responsibility, it may not be sustainable.

Those of us who know a bit about fracking, not just its environmental concerns but the difference between actual reserves and rate of extraction of reserves, have known for some time that natural gas fracking's claims of an explosion of new resources have been somewhat bubbly. And, the latest confirmation of that is here.

Now, the evidence that the same is true of fracked shale oil is continuing to increase.

(N)oted Canadian energy analyst David Hughes says that even if the drilling could somehow continue, the bounty simply will not last. 

Last month, Hughes released “Drilling Deeper,” a report he authored for Santa Rosa-based Post Carbon Institute, scrutinizing the U.S.’s two largest oil booms in the Bakken and Eagle Ford fields. By examining industry data, Hughes projects that the booms in both fields will peak before 2020 and, by 2040, will be producing at a tiny fraction of their current levels. “[If] the future of U.S. oil and natural gas production depends on resources in the country's deep shale deposits, as the Energy Department contends, we are in for a big disappointment in the longer term," Hughes said in a press release. 

The fundamental problem, Hughes explains, is the ephemeral nature of the average deep shale oil well, which declines in production by 83 percent after three years. This, Hughes explains, translates to an annual decline rate in the Bakken and Eagle Ford fields of over 40 percent. (The Bakken and Eagle Ford, he says, are not unique in this regard. All shale oil plays are afflicted with steep decline curves.)

In other words, the Texas GOP, as incorporated in the Texas Legislature passing these constitutional amendments, is officially running a Ponzi scheme. (All emphasis in the above quote is mine.) 

And, it's a Ponzi scheme based not only on ephemeral production, but also ephemeral production that's not's being adequately taxed for all of its destructiveness.

Click the links within that pull quote, as well as clicking the main link for more. It should open your eyes. For example, Hughes expects Eagle Ford oil production to peak in 2016! That's from his "Drilling Deeper" report. And, it needs to open the eyes of people at larger media companies than me. The latest installment of the alleged Texas miracle of economics simply doesn't appear to be sustainable.

And, in a related issue, feel free to vote on my poll about Obama and the Keystone XL, at top right. (Note: The plunge in oil prices may also affect Obama's decision.)

Meanwhile, on both oil and gas, it seems like the Energy Information Administration become less trustworthy all the time.

Update, Jan. 16, 2015: Houston Chronicle columnist Chris Tomlinson notes that more recently fracked wells give some signs of not declining so quickly. That said, Hughes' graphs, linked above, do not show a sharp decline for either the Eagle Ford or the Bakken formations, among others, so I don't think Chris' note really undercuts Hughes' analysis.

#Toyota establishing US HQ in #Texas — Texas GOP reacts

Sounds like great news for Texas, right? Thousands of non-minimum wage jobs, thousands of jobs with health insurance, coming to Texas as Toyota will create a national headquarters for its US operations in Plano.

Well, of course its great news, and so says leaders of the Texas Republican Party.


Rick Perry touted the $40 million the Texas Enterprise Fund Rick Perry is Running for Something Fund was paying for these jobs. When gently reminded that this was $8,000 a job that he was paying for insured jobs, far, far more than a 5 percent match for Obamacare Medicaid expansion, Perry said "Don't confuse me with numbers."

Ted Cruz thought about calling Rick Perry a socialist, but wasn't quite sure he wanted to go that far yet. So, amazingly, he said nothing, even as smoke coming out of his ears above his furrowed brow indicated that the idea was stuck in his melting-down brain.

John Cornyn said what Ted Cruz said because, per Lyndon Baines Johnson, Cornyn has voluntarily put his pecker in Cruz's pocket.

Louie Gohmert was put into preventative detention by Rick Perry, who was afraid Gohmert would scare the crap out of the Japanese so badly that they would renege on the deal.

Greg Abbott promised Toyota officials the new headquarters would not have to comply with Americans with Disabilities Act standards. He also promised to sue the Obama administration if it tried to force this on Toyota.

When asked how he could stand for such a double standard, he said it was a dirty liberal trick to talk about him and a  "stand"-ard for anything.

Dan Patrick said he welcomed Toyota, as long as the Japanese there were all in America legally and did not stink or contaminate America, unlike he thinks Hispanics do. Patrick did say that if Toyota were to be for getting some Ill Eagles to mow campus lawns, he'd try to remember what part of his own past to remember or not.

David Dewhurst said he was amazed that not all Japanese were short. He asked if any of them had registered to vote in the primary election runoff, to re-elect him rather than somebody worried that they might stink.

Jerry Patterson asked if Toyota had a gun-friendly culture. He promised Glocks for all if Toyota did, whipping one out of his boot while there.

Ken Paxton asked if Toyota needed to buy any construction bonds with any of that Rick Perry money He touted his under-the-table financial genius, saying he could hide money wherever it needed to be hidden.

Joe Straus wondered why he couldn't get Toyota to San Antonio.

Note: It should be obvious by now to regular readers that this is going to be a semi-regular series. It's like shooting fish in a barrel, only in the case, the fish are generally too dumb to recognize they're dead.

Waco discusses jail marketing — why?

First, it's kind of a sad state of affairs on Texas' economy (yes, Rick Perry, it is), when not just small towns, but a metropolitan area like Waco talks about jail marketing, specifically as part of rehabbing an old downtown jail out of use for a few years.

Why? Hoping for federal jail contracts plus overflow from elsewhere, even though, among state-level inmates, the trend finally seems to be toward a drop, or at least, no more rises. The talk of a warm-weather increase in inmates doesn't wash here.

And, as Texas Prison Bidness notes, this is a road that both McClennan County and LaSalle have already been down before. Add in a "tough on crime" and "hang em high" district attorney, Abel Reyna, at the county level, and, if a federal contract or two doesn't materialize, I'm sure the old DA will get tougher yet on crime.

And, LaSalle doesn't have a stellar track record elsewhere, either. (I was in Burnet County when this went down.)

The bottom-line fact is that the Harwell Center itself was a spec-built project, its size being in part a gamble on getting contracts to house prisoners from elsewhere. Well, as I just noted, those days, if not coming to an end, are likely at least on the decline.

Related to that? Let's get back to that word "economy."

Even in Texas' metropolitan areas, if you're not a really big metro, or not in the oil patch, the recovery hasn't fully been happening yet.

Waco's unemployment rate is about at state average, so, it's ahead of small towns but trails some other areas. And, not a lot of the recovery has involved a lot of higher-pay jobs.

And, after the oil patch, prison expansion arguably was a part of Rick Perry's "Texas miracle" in the first place.

#TexasMiracle? Oil and gas, illegals, and smoke and mirrors

Most of us who live in Texas and don't have our heads buried up Rick Perry's tuchis already knew the truth about Tricky Ricky's "Texas Miracle," but a good long-form piece from Washington Monthly spells out the details as a friendly reminder.

That photo is a good starting point, noting all the gas flares from the Eagle Ford. But, it's not just the Eagle Ford. If you've been in Texas a while, you can quickly spot, as I did, even more flaring light coming from the Permian Basin. (And, let's not forget all the climate change being induced in those spots.)

Here's a few other takeaways of note:

Perry's franchise tax isn't helping businesses get the best bang for education bucks:

For example, under the assumption that spending on education benefits only households and not businesses, California businesses pay $2.30 in taxes for every dollar they get in benefits, while Texas businesses pay $5. By this measure, Texas is the ninth-worst state in the country in the cost/benefit ratio it offers businesses on their taxes. 

Not even close.

As for the "Texas exceptionalism" of "I wasn't born here but I moved here as quickly as I could," espoused by too many Democrats in the Pointy Abandoned Object State, like Wendy Davis, as well as Tricky Ricky? Wrong:

For example, according to Census Bureau data, 441,682 native-born Americans moved to Texas from other states between 2010 and 2011. Sounds like a lot. But moving (fleeing?) in the opposite direction were 358,048 other native-born Americans leaving Texas behind. That means that the net domestic migration of native-born Americans to Texas came to just 83,634, which in a nation of 315 million isn’t even background noise. It’s the demographic equivalent of, say, the town of Lawrence, Kansas, or Germantown, Maryland, “voting with its feet” and moving to Texas while the rest of America stays put.

Yep. As I blogged already a few years ago. the real "demographic miracle" in Texas, or Tejas, which neither Tricky Ricky nor all-around nutter Kinky Friedman nor hardcore wingnut Ted Cruz nor Greg "Hey, I Have a Mexican Wife" (But Didn't Know I Had for 25 Years) Abbott want to admit, is that Texas' population growth is due to Mezcans. Not Mexican-Americans, not nearly as much as Mezcans, fleeing the homeland for the onion-picking that Americans won't do, and also the roofing and framing at housing projects of Friend of Ricky's, Bob Perry, because in this case, they're used to deliberately drive down labor costs.

But, the folks that move here, or were "lucky" enough to be born here, are all going to be entrepreneurs, right?

Wrong. Not even the slush of Tricky Ricky's Texas Enterprise Fund can change this:

In the San Francisco Bay Area, for example, children who grew up in families in the bottom fifth of the income distribution had only a 12.2 percent chance of rising to the top fifth as adults. Those who grew up in or near San Diego or Los Angeles had even lesser odds—only 10.4 and 9.6 percent, respectively. It’s depressing that for so many Californian children, the chances of realizing the American Dream are so slim. But California looks like the land of opportunity compared to Texas.

In the greater Austin area, children who grew up in families of modest means had only a 6.9 percent chance of joining the top fifth of earners when they became adults; in Dallas, only 7.1 percent; in San Antonio, just 6.4 percent. Yes, Texas offers more chances for upward mobility than places like Detroit and some Deep South cities like Atlanta. Yet the claim that Texas triumphs over the rest of America as the land of opportunity is all hat and no cattle. 

Period and end of story.

You want real embarassing? Look left. Vermonters make more money than Texans. Gee, Rick, why aren't you asking Vermont businesses to move here?

And, note to Wendy Davis. Don't pretend we do so much right in Texas. That "behind Vermont" is nearly 30 years old now, except for the brief late-90s bump. And, the decline started while, yes, while Reagan was president, but while Democrats had control of most of the levers of power in Austin, sometimes all of them.

Until we get more Democrats in Texas being more honest about just how much the state has slipped, and for how long, Democratic economic campaign proposals will likely come off sounding like Band-Aids.

Don't hold your breath.

Is there really an economic recovery in Waco?

Allegedly, unemployment is down and jobs are growing in the Queen City of the Brazos.

But, the world of advertising leads me to question this.

The Waco Tribune-Herald, which continues to show to me, an ink-stained wretch, what many a layperson reader know -- it kind of sucks, surely doesn't give indications of a lively economy.

Yes, I know that early August is a slow time of year. But, just 20 pages in the Saturday paper?

When I was in Odessa, we had 24 for sure, even in late July and early August. And, greater Waco is Odessa plus Midland combined in population. Sure, there's no oil there, and its bounded by Temple to the south and Killeen to the west, but, still, 20 pages is weak.

Of course, it didn't have advertising to justify more than that.

Counting classifieds, but setting aside the almost two pages of obits, which are paid, but not advertising in the narrow sense, the remaining 18 pages would have been lucky to be 25 percent ads.

At the same time, when a lot of smaller seven-day dailies don't have an official editorial page editor anymore, instead having either the editor or the ME oversee that, the Trib has not only an editorial page editor but an assistant!

So, aside from the economics issues, I can understand why laypeople complain about the paper.

That said, it's not just the Trib, bad as it may be in general.

I've seen multiple billboards that have "house" ads from Lamar Outdoor on them. Outside the DFW/Houston/San Antone triangle plus Austin, a lot of east, central and south Texas' urban areas are kind of like Waco .... Beaumont, Longview, Tyler, Corpus, etc.

If Rick Perry's got a Texas economic miracle cooking, the pot's not getting even heat.

Update, Oct. 15: Last Saturday's Waco Trib had more pages than that August one, but boy, it was poor on advertising. My quick-scanned guesstimate? About 20 percent ads, 80 percent copy. If Warren Buffett thinks newspapers are such a good investment, he's apparently not always picking the right ones.

He also hasn't gotten the Trib, in a year-plus of Berkshire Hathaway ownership, to put up a paywall, despite his own admonitions about this. Nor has BH apparently done anything to promote regional clustering with the Bryan-College Station Eagle, which it also owns.

Rick Perry calls to keep Texas schools underfunded

That’s Truth No. 1 behind lies and misstatements in this press release cosigned with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and State Sen. Dan Patrick:

HOUSTON – Gov. Rick Perry today renewed his call for a stricter Constitutional spending limit for Texas’ state budget ahead of the upcoming legislative session. The governor was joined by Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Sen. Dan Patrick to reiterate their commitment to the sound conservative policies that have made our state prosperous.

“Government growth, if any, should be kept to the bare minimum and should be limited by constitutional amendment to the rate of our population growth combined with the rate of inflation,” Gov. Perry said. “An amendment to the Texas Constitution would cast a spending limit in clear terms, ensuring we never get in a situation where state spending spirals out of control the way it has in Washington, D.C.”

“Texas is the national model when it comes to keeping state spending to a minimum,” Lt. Gov. Dewhurst said. “We take pride in the fact that Texas ranks 47th out of 50th per capita in state spending. A constitutional spending limit based on population and inflation growth will provide Texas greater stability when it comes to budgeting, ensure that the Lone Star State is prosperous for future generations and provide an example for Washington and the rest of the nation on how to govern responsibly.

“I have long believed that state government must live within its means, just like all Texans do every day,” Sen. Patrick said. “Fiscal conservatism will continue to be a top priority for me this coming session.”

In order to protect against excessive government growth and over-taxation in the future, the Texas Budget Compact proposes replacing the current Constitutional spending limit, which is based on personal income, with a firmer cap based on the combined rate of inflation and Texas population growth.

Gov. Perry has called on lawmakers to commit to the five key principles of the Texas Budget Compact to ensure Texas remains strong and competitive in the future. He also urged the ongoing need for careful stewardship of Texas taxpayer dollars, especially as Medicaid puts increasing pressure on our state budget. The principles of the compact are:

•Practice Truth in Budgeting

•Support a Constitutional limit of spending to the growth of population and inflation

•Oppose any new taxes or tax increases, and make the small business tax exemption permanent

•Preserve a strong Rainy Day Fund

•Cut unnecessary and duplicative government programs and agencies.

In reality, this means that the out-of-whack business/franchise tax, which was and is a key component to school funding, will remain out of whack unless the various school districts suing the state win. That said, remember that the business/franchise tax in its current form was created in response to the last such suit. The Three Stooges and other wingnuts could make things even worse if the state loses another suit.

Also unmentioned is the state’s continuing hikes in various fees, including courtesy fees to pay such fees online. The GOP will never call these things taxes, but they are, whether at the state level, or the county level for such things like driver’s license and car registration renewals.

The only reason Texas has four new U.S. Representatives, and half the reason or more that Tricky Ricky can boast about “Rick Perry’s economic miracle,” is Hispanic growth in the state.

The Three Stooges want to shoot Texas in the foot for the future by insuring underfunded schools, which are likely to hurt bilingual Hispanic children a lot, and by rejecting Obamacare’s expansion of Medicaid, which could leave them and their parents hurt a lot, literally.

Beyond that, look at the other bullet points.

A Constitutional limit on spending? Why is it that it’s always Republicans who clamor for this horseshit, after accusing Democrats of “spend, spend, spend”? The GOP, again, wants to be rescued from its own rhetoric.

The small business exemption? Touched above under business/franchise tax.

Rainy Day fund? There’s a difference between prudence and hoarding.

Cut “unnecessary” government programs? The same type of GOP horseshit as in the first bullet point. The Three Stooges have controlled the governor’s mansion and both houses of the Legislature for approaching a decade now. And they still claim there’s “unnecessary” programs and agencies to be cut? This also ignores that most such agencies face mandatory sunset review on a regular basis.

The #47percent, taxes and "fees" - and #RickPerrysTexasMiracle

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Ezra Klein does a generally good job of breaking down this “47 percent who pay no income taxes” as to what they actually do pay.

Klein, as the first graphic from his blog shows, points out that those “47 percenters” pay plenty of state and local taxes.

Sales taxes at the state/county/local level, especially if food is taxable, are definitely regressive. I mean, we all have to eat, and there’s only so much pricey caviar or paté that Mitt Romney and his ilk can swallow. State income taxes, too, can have more loopholes for the well-off than federal ones.

That said, I don’t know how Klein exactly figures in property taxes. But, even if you’re a renter, you pay them indirectly as part of your monthly rent.

But, Klein doesn’t go far enough, even then.

Don't forget all the state “fees” that we all pay. Rick Perry with his “Texas miracle” ignores that Texas has consistently jacked up “fees” during his governorship -— driver's license, car registration, etc. He also ignores that Texas does things like charging fees on guns and ammunition, theoretically to support state parks and wildlife, but that the amount of those fees that actually goes to the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department is capped, while the rest goes to the state’s general fund.

I also don’t know how Klein counts excise fees … if they’re considered taxes or not. Let’s not forget that the feds have plenty of excise fees, on things like phone service, as do states and municipalities. (It does seem that Citizens for Tax Justice does, though exactly what it includes, I don't know. That said, I don't doubt that, in the Great Recession, many states hiked a lot of these fees a lot, afraid to raise top income tax rates on rich individuals or corporations.)

Let’s add to this other “fun.” Here in Texas … the Internet is supposed to be convenient, right? So “convenient” that you have to pay a convenience fee to renew your car registration online.

In other words, Tricky Ricky’s claim to have not raised taxes is a big fat lie, beyond semantics.

I’m sure other states have similar issues. And, I’ve probably only scratched the edges in Texas, even as big-biz lobbying groups are trying to scrap the minuscule business and franchise tax we currently have here.

A second graphic has combined the information and shows that total taxation is moderately progressive from the bottom of the income stack to the 80th percentile, only mildly progressive from there to the 99th percentile, and regressive for the top 1 percent. Had Klein broken out that top 1 percent, he probably would have fond it even more regressive.

Finally, Mittens and his like pay much of their taxes at a capital gains rate far below income tax rates. This encourages the rampant short-term churning of stocks. If we taxed capital gains as income while, per the clamor of some financier types, allowing an inflationary depreciation, we’d force investors to be real investors for the long term, while stopping the short-term churning.

Oh, and on Fresh Air with Terri Gross today, Donald Kay Johnston reminds us that corporate taxes, especially at the state level, are about as regressive as sales taxes. Maybe worse.

Rick Perry lies about Texas jobs

Got a long email from Perry's office boasting about Texas jobs. (Apologies for the partial post earlier.) Here's what's at the core of the email:

Here in Texas, we are fiscally sound and conservative.  Texas has no state-income tax.  And to help create jobs, we recently exempted thousands of small and start-up businesses from paying taxes.

I know what Washington can’t seem to grasp balanced budgets and a relatively low tax burden encourage private sector job creation.

Texas led the nation in job growth over the past 10 years.  Between March 2002 and March 2012, the Lone Star State added 1.318 million new nonfarm jobs.

We added 225,800 jobs over the past year along, with Forbes magazine recently ranking Texas cities 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th of top 25 best job climates in America.

A strong job climate is no accident.  It takes an entrepreneurial spirit, which we have in our people.  It takes common-sense tax and regulatory policies.  And it takes disciplined lawmakers, who can say no to special interest excess.

The Texas Legislature have been conservative and fiscally responsibly in recent years, but there is no guarantee that will continue.

That’s why I recently introduced the Texas Budget Compact - Principles for a Stronger Texas.

We all have a vested interest in the future of Texas, we need to do everything we can to help our state become a stronger, more prosperous state, better prepared to deal with the unexpected and better positioned to care for our own. That's what the Budget Compact is all about, a unique opportunity to do right by Texans. 

"The Texas Budget Compact," comprised of five simple yet effective principles that will lead to a stronger Texas:

• Practice truth in budgeting.
• Support a Constitutional limit of spending to the growth of population and inflation.
• Oppose any new taxes or tax increases, and make the small business tax exemption permanent.
• Preserve a strong Rainy Day Fund.
• Cut unnecessary and duplicative government programs and agencies.
  

To be honest, these are pretty simple prescriptions for budget health in Texas.

Reality? Perry refused to do more for education, whether taxes or Rainy Day Fund, and therefore has costs thousands, if not tens of thousands, of local jobs.

Reality? As I blogged last year, the "Texas Miracle" is a largely an illusion; and the illusion of it is largely based on immigration, including illegal immigration.

Reality? Many of the jobs that have been created are low-income jobs, usually without healthcare benefits.

Reality? That reflects larger "quality of living" issues in Texas.

Reality? The "no new taxes" has been an excuse to mask rising "fees" in a variety of areas, including things such as car registrations and titles that impact people regularly.


Worst of all? Tricky Ricky sent this out as a solicitation email.

Speaking of "no debt," it sounds like he's got plenty from his ill-fated presidential campaign.

If he were president, we'd see the income gap get even wider, more colonias, increases in all sorts of federal user fees (and the money not dedicated to specific budgets), slashed public health care programs and worse.

#RickPerrysTexasMiracle: Texas regressive taxes

Turns out Texas is one of the most regressive states in the nation on the burden of its various state taxes. Surprised?

#RickPerrysTexasMiracle is DEAD

Not just Tricky Ricky's Texas miracle, but the "Texas miracle" in general, the one fueled by migration from the north along with legal and illegal immigration.

First, the National Weather Service is confirming drought is likely well into 2012. And conditions favorable to drought will last until 2020.

This isn't Texas of the 1950s, where such drought hurts just farming. East Texas' metropolitan areas have triple the population of then, Northerners expecting water amenities such as suburban lawns, etc. Business/industrial water users at East Texas manufacturing sites will also be crimped. So, this affects legal immigrations and U.S. citizens; they, too, not just illegals, won't be coming here so much.

The AP story still doesn't directly discuss global warming issues under the "favorable to drought" portion, but, folks, that's there, and neither Rick Perry's prayers nor his science denialism can obscure that.

Second issue? Migration from the Rustbelt to the Sunbelt in general has come almost to a halt. And probably won't recover any time soon. That migration, not so much in Texas as in Arizona, Florida and Nevada, but still somewhat here, fueled a housing boom, a retail boom, a restaurant chain boom and more. Well, now, Texas is going to have to live within its means more. And Tricky Ricky's going to have to fix the franchise tax and other things to pay for teachers, or eventually, his small town supporters are eventually going to wisen up enough to rebel.

Back to the bottom line, though. It's not just Rick Perry's Texas miracle that's dead. The whole GOP (and conservative Democrat) idea of poaching Northern union-heavier states for companies to move to right-to-work Texas is going to be on life support for a while. So, too will be the "multiplier effects" of new stores and restaurants.