Texas Progressives talk Beryl

Off the Kuff wrote lots of things about Beryl. 

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project said hurricanes are political.

Space City Weather argues that Houston deserves a much better electricity distribution system.  

CultureMap showed how to help wildlife post-Beryl.

The Press gave its props to the Whataburger outage map.

Strangeabbott got back from his Korean junket and did some faux outrage about CenterPoint. Whatever investigation he wants will be a sham. Ditto in spades for Lite Guv Danny Goeb. We remember Uri.

In his latest Chron column, friend Chris Tomlinson did some real outrage, with a callout of Goeb, and of Kenny Boy Paxton for play-acting at AG, but even more, looks at CenterPoint as a big lying capitalist deregulated utility.

And legal shark Tony Buzbee has filed a class-action lawsuit against CenterPoint.

Tex-ass could have been on the national power grid in the 1970s. If only ...

Vox talks more on how this happened, and how this likely isn't the last time. (I personally continue to troll former Helltown mayor Annise Parker on Twitter about her mayoral-years statement about wanting Houston to get bigger than Chicago.)

Early hurricanes coming? Definitely strong ones and many

Per this Yale Climate Connections piece, which is where the graphic is coming from, don't be surprised! That's like a five-alarm fire!

Within that, there's this takeout:

The Caribbean is home to some of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded. Half of the 39 Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes since 1851 formed in the Caribbean, including Hurricane Wilma in October 2005, the most intense Atlantic hurricane ever observed.

So, if not by the end of this month, by mid-June, I think we've got a good shot at seeing at least one named tropical storm, even if it doesn't get all the way to hurricane status.

==

And, for that, yesterday's NOAA initial forecast. And, it's as bad or worse than Colorado State's initial forecast released last month, allowing for NOAA fudging by doing ranges.

Here's the basics:

NOAA expects this hurricane season to have an 85 percent chance of being above normal. I assume "normal" is on the 30-year cycle, per CSU's predictions.

NOAA doesn't get more finely granular on that. But, CSU does, geographically. So, note this:

Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida)
westward to Brownsville – 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%.

If you thought Bush was an idiot on Katrina ...

It's possible you ain't seen nothing yet.

We know Trump was an even bigger idiot, and racist, over Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

And, it's possible you ain't seen nothing yet.

Riffing on Katrina, it's possible that Louisiana, later this week, will get hit back-to-back, within 72 hours or less, by two separate hurricanes. Marco is already a hurricane, and Laura is expected to move up there from its current tropical storm status.

Yale Climate Connections, in its Sunday prognostications, first raised the possibility of both hitting Louisiana. That's Marco at upper left and Laura at lower right.

Weather Underground is still saying it expects Marco to come further west and hit Texas. We'll see. But, even its predictions allow for the possibility of heavy rain and surf on the Louisiana coast. Basically, it's expecting a Harvey in reverse, scraping the Gulf coast from east to west and starting further east.

Whatever the track of the two storms, as with coronavirus, you can expect Trump to hugely mishandle this. Meanwhile, if Weather Underground is right on Marco? That's bad news for a Houston that has many poorer neighborhoods still not fully recovered from Harvey.

Yale Climate is leaning more on UKMET's forecast track, while Weather Underground is following more on NHC. And this raises a sidebar issue about Weather Underground.

A month or two ago, I complained about the "shadow" text on its map graphics. Didn't realize, or think, until yesterday, that that is probably part of something bigger.

And, that "bigger" is its parent, IBM, shuttering the "Category 6" weather blog, whose top two staff ... are now at Yale Climate. The related maps issue is that Weather Underground used to show ALL of the top five-six different world meteorological forecasting agencies tracking projections. Yale Climate still often does this, and has them for Marco on the link above, and also, on a previous post, as a look at overall accuracy, when it said that the NHC is generally better but UKMET has consistently been tops on Marco. That "migration" is part why I added Yale Climate to my blogroll.

Anyway, the "dance" starts today. And, in case you're wondering, yes, NOLA is supposed to flood. Beyond the possibility of Marco doing a reverse Harvey, I wonder if it could, not with a Fujiwara effect, but in some other way cause Laura to stall out after landfall, adding to South Louisiana flooding. And, adding further to the shitstorm, the big levee at Grand Isle was damaged two months ago, and the Corps of Engineers and the state have been wrangling on who should pay to fix it and other things. More here on video of the state taking over work, which will only be Band-aided.

(Update: Louisiana and Trump's idiocy both got lucky, per Yale CC. Marco is now a TS as of Tuesday afternoon and may only be a TD at landfall. Laura is still looking to intensify, but the Bermuda high now has it hitting Texas, most likely somewhere not really far from Houston.)

But ... "climate change is just a myth," or "climate change is a socialist plot," right, Rethuglicans?

TX Progressives talk Memorial Day, runoffs, hurricanes

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds you that Memorial Day started as a day to honor Union dead from the Civil War, not as the day for Southern Republican whites to think Bobby Lee died for their sins as it offers this week’s roundup.

Off the Kuff offered his Democratic post-runoff thoughts.

In additional political blogging, at the Texas Monthly, R.G. Ratcliffe notes Empower Texas and Mucus, aka M.Q. Sullivan, took heavy hits in state lege races. At the Texas Observer, C.D. Hooks thinks little of state Democrats’ fall chances.

At the Statesman, Jonathan Tilove looks further at the upcoming governor’s race, and at the News, James Barrigan asks  if Lupe Valdez can drive general election Latin@ turnout, both writing before Lupe Valdez’ latest kerfuffle, over unpaid property taxes.

In a hot regional race, David Bruce Collins analyzes Lizzie Fletcher’s margin of win in the Democratic CD7 runoff.

Brains and Eggs takes a first look at the Harris County judge general election showdown.

In Dallas, at the Dallas Observer, Jim Schutze says black Dallas has an old guard problem as bad as white Dallas.

Jim Schutze pops up again to note the lawyers for the State Fair billed $1,200 for reading one of his stories, at an hourly rate of $795. Not sure whether the grifting itself or the ridiculous rate is worse.

SocraticGadfly reviews Amy Chozick's "Chasing Hillary" and one-stars it for several reasons to save you the trouble.

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In other Texas blogging news, Alberto reminds us hurricane season has an early start.

 Space City Weather heralds the start of the hurricane season.

The U.S. Chemical Safety Board reports Arkema knew well in advance of Hurricane Harvey about flood risks, according to Texas Vox. I noted at that time how self-proclaimed skeptics bashed the media over early Arkema reporting, while turning out to be  pseudoskeptics with a vested interest in the bashing, and tribalism.

Fort Bend County is suing the Corps of Engineers over Harvey-related flooding. Good luck, but you won’t win.

Grits for Breakfast deplores the state scaring people away from calling 911 on drug overdoses.

Colin Strother tries to wrap his mind around the Korean Summit debacle.

Bay Area Houston channels the Congressmen who nominated Trump for a Nobel Prize.

Juanita checks in on Blake Farenthold.

Monica Faulkner analyzes a recent report about youths in Texas foster care who are pregnant or already parents.

The TSTA Blog is not impressed by Greg Abbott's roundtable on gun violence.

Houston Press says thank the European Union for the privacy notices in your email.

Would an #IkeDike help Houston? Or be a big ripoff? Say #carbontax (updated)

Update, Oct. 31: In a "trick or treat," Gov. Abbott now wants $12 billion for an Ike Dike as part of a $61 billion federal bailout. Yeah, that word's about right, especially if Texas Congresscritters refuse to support a Manhattan Dike, since NYC is a lot more vulnerable to oceanic-related global warming effects than Houston is.

With a storm like the current Harvey, or the old Tropical Storm Allison, the answer is simply no, an "Ike Dike," first proposed after Hurricane Ike, would be of no help. Simply wouldn't. That's not only due to a Harvey primarily being a problem due to inland rain-induced flooding, not a storm surge, but that the surge that Harvey wound up generating on its final run was partially from within Galveston Bay, not being brought from the larger Gulf of Mexico INTO the bay. And, that will be true of other storms that run up the coast rather than coming in from offshore.

Yes, per one of the links that friend Brains posted on Twitter, A&M-Galveston is touting it. Of course they are — it's A&M, a fricking engineering school. And, with the Corps of Cadets centered on the main branch in College Station, it's the state's military school, too. That will tie in here in a minute.

Besides, contra AM-Galveston, there simply is no such newfangled post-Katrina item in New Orleans called the "Greater New Orleans Barrier." There is NO Wiki page for it and less than 200 Google hits. (Actually, less than 40 if you eliminate near-duplicates.) This is a fraudulent attempt to put a label on a nonexistent item, which is actually a group of post-Katrina cobbled-together upgrades, expansions and improvements to existing storm surge barriers.

It's also fraudulent to say that the Netherlands' work, designed to face North Sea gales with normal max 60 mph winds, and almost never above 75-80 mph, is the same as trying to block out a Category 5 hurricane. (The same is true for Venice's tidal gate system.)

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

It's also like the Army Corps of Engineers saying yet-higher levees is always the answer for Mississippi River floods, or some newer, higher dam, is always the answer for floods out west.

Per ProPublica, in Houston, city and Harris County officials need to focus on inland solutions — green spaces, permeable ground, and zoning — that are cheaper than dikes that will likely cost $10 billion, not $3 billion, that are hubristic, and that won't help inland flooding, either. And, it's no wonder that a leading private contractor (especially on military stuff) is also touting the so-called Ike Dike. This is the military-industrial complex gravy train at work. And, that same military-industrial complex was at work getting at least one Houston suburb to push for it. (On the "less than 200 Google hits," there's a number of Houston suburbs with city ordinances or similar city council agenda items like that.) Speaking of, the Corps' New Orleans-area work, per Wiki, has long been known to be laden with pork. And, the Corps' post-Katrina levees work, when Isaac came, moved flooding around more than anything else.

And, the Seabrook Floodgate, if that's what's meant, is nothing like a "Greater New Orleans Barrier."

And, again, an Ike Dike would be of ZERO effectiveness against inland, rain-induced flooding.

Something else that would be cheaper? Fixing, or even reversing if possible, ground subsidence.

And, leaders of Sun Belt megalopolises also need to read Ed Abbey (that's YOU, former mayor Annise Parker) and remember: "Growth for growth's sake is the theology of the cancer cell."

But, per my Houston vs Harvey blog post, Houstonians and Harris County voters keep electing "open for business" growth-only mayors, city councilmen, county judges and county commissioners. Your local answer needs to start with "vote the rascals out." And get the new people to fire city and county flood staff.

When President Obama took office, I said he should have used some of the Great Recession stimulus money to make new moves to Phoenix and Vegas go back to Cleveland, St. Louis or wherever as part of buying out underwater mortgages, before climate change made those cities essentially unlivable. To be honest, the same probably needs to happen in Houston, and New Orleans. Beyond all the problems mentioned above, both cities also face land subsidence from groundwater pumping that has turned them into giant bowls.

An Ike Dike as the semi-magic solution to these problems? It's what Evgeny Morozov calls "solutionism." It's what I've called here "salvific technologism." It's the stuff that makes Silicon Valley tech-neoliberals (as well as the military-industrial complex) salivate.

Folks in other places — Baton Rouge and parts of South Florida come to mind — are already at work on inland mitigation effects, including permeability, smart building, etc. Why won't greater Houston, and why shouldn't it?

==

As for cost? Kuff has numbers with higher estimates, depending on the project, than does Brains. And state Land Commish Pee Bush, per Vox, says $15M. They're still surely underestimates, once the military-industrial complex gets its hands on this. But, at least we are getting somewhat more serious.

Something else that would be cheaper and would help with flooding, though not a storm surge, is an underground conduit draining Addicks and Barker reservoirs straight to the Houston Ship Channel. It was first discussed 20 years ago. Even that would be less pricey than an Ike Dike, though it would still have the Corps involved.

And, neither Brains nor Kuff talk about the other costs, like environmental. How would this affect marine life? At the intersection of environment and business, how would this affect fishing and shrimping? Or simply business — how would this affect offshore oil exploration? (The channel would also have some environmental effect, though surely less than an Ike Dike.)

I mean, this IS the Corps of Engineers we're talking about, that is generally in neck-and-neck running with the Bureau of Recreation for among the most environmentally UNfriendly federal government agencies.

Even that reservoir conduit? It would be like the Mississippi River levees or moving around the New Orleans ones. A blast from it like Harvey's would probably tear up portions of the Houston Ship Channel unless IT was re-engineered. And, for how much?

An Ike Dike is a nice dream. No more than that. Per the above, probably not tremendously more realistic than an air-conditioned dome above all of Phoenix, or geoengineering the atmosphere with soot to try to reduce climate change.

And, if the real cost is $20 billion? Or even close? The only way I would consider paying for that is a national carbon tax, which the wingnuts who run Harris County, and the accommodators who run Houston, would never back.

And, per Ed Abbey and other things, were I the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., I'd refuse to fund an Ike Dike without a carbon tax. AND, I wouldn't sign off without Emmett, Turner et al agreeing to ALSO do mainland mitigation work.

In other words, if I were president, Houston and Harris County would have to pass zoning ordinances before getting money.

This is no different than my supporting single-payer national health care only if cost controls are attached. (And that is why I want the US to adopt at least elements of a British-style NHS.)

==

This is nothing against Perry, nor against other bloggers on the Texas Progressives list. Per what he said about another blogger, he's in many ways like a brother from another mother, or at least a cousin from another aunt. And, I have other friends, including two college classmates, who also live in Houston.

But, this is also about what's right for the country, what's right for the environment and what's realistic. I mean, we already have a country with unmet infrastructure repairs, improvements and upgrades so crappy in some places, along with income inequality, that an MIT economist recently labeled the US a "developing country."

And, on "realistic" and environmentalism, the Corps of Engineers usually runs neck and neck with the Bureau of Reclamation for lack of environmental concern among federal construction-type agencies.

And finally, no, it's not "too soon" to write this.

Houston vs #Harvey (blasting Beaumont)

Harvey's projected longer-term path is firming up.
Weather Underground storm tracking map is linked to its updates, is live, not static.

A nightmare scenario first broached by the National Weather Service late Friday seems to be taking firmer shape, per midday Saturday forecasts and projections.

And, per the various sets of updates, the nightmare on rain has already happened and hasn't finished. It now looks like Harvey will ride the Gulf coastline until early Wednesday, eventually making its second landfall somewhere near Port Arthur, and pumping yet more rain into southeast Texas until then, perhaps another 15 inches northeast of Houston, and half that much, at least, closer into the city.

Parts of Harris County were STILL getting half an inch an hour of rain Tuesday morning. An inch an hour was falling to the east and north.

Update 3 p.m. Tuesday
6 p.m. Tuesday  — offshore 60 miles SSE of Galveston
6 a.m. Wednesday — landfall due south of Lake Charles
6 p.m. Wednesday — SSW of Alexandria, Louisiana
6 a.m. Thursday —  Due south of Monroe, Louisiana
6 a.m. Friday —  Oxford, Mississippi

Update 7 a.m. Tuesday — trajectory shifted yet eastward
Noon Wednesday — landfall SW of Lake Charles, Louisiana
Midnight, Wednesday/Thursday — Alexandria, Louisiana
Midnight, Thursday/Friday — above Greenville, Mississippi

Update 10 p.m. Monday — trajectory shifting eastward
6 a.m. Tuesday — Offshore due south of Houston

6 p.m. Tuesday — Closer offshore, due south of Galveston
6 a.m Wednesday — Just offshore of Port Arthur

6 p.m. Wednesday — North of Lake Charles, Louisiana
6 p.m. Thursday — SE Arkansas

Update, 10 a.m. Monday —  There has been a bit of a shift eastward, with the general paths remaining the same. Whether this will make thing better or worse for Houston? It could move rain bands away from Houston, but it could shove some sort of storm surge right up the Houston Ship Channel. In short, Houston is now in a situation similar to that with Ike nine years ago.
6 a.m. Tuesday — Offshore due south of Houston
6 p.m. Tuesday — Closer offshore, due south of Galveston
6 a.m. Wednesday — Near landfall on Bolivar Peninsula
6 a.m. Thursday — On the Toledo Bend Reservoir
6 a.m. Friday — Southern Arkansas

The latest models continue to show an accelerating clear-out after Harvey's second landfall.

And, speaking of "similar to Ike," no, it's not too soon to raise planning issues and the politics related to them.

Update, 10 p.m. Sunday (confirmed on 1 a.m. Monday update) — A bit of saving grace, perhaps. Harvey is expected to gain movement speed after making landfall again. That may mean a little less rain for Houston later in the week, but more before then, and longer over water.
Latest predictions:
Monday, noon — Matagorda or east
Monday/Tuesday midnight — Matagorda Bay
Tuesday, noon — Lake Jackson offshore
Tuesday/Wednesday, midnight — Freeport offshore, making landfall again
Wednesday/Thursday, midnight — East of Huntsville near Livingston
Thursday/Friday, midnight — near Ruston, Louisiana, southeast of Shreveport
Friday/Saturday, midnight — south-central Arkansas

Update, 4 p.m. Sunday — Latest NWS forecast is continuing to firm up and tighten.

By cities of larger size, here are approximates for storm center location through Friday:
Monday, 6 p.m. — Port O'Connor
Tuesday 6 p.m. — Offshore just off Lake Jackson
Wednesday 6 p.m. — Houston dead center
Thursday, 6 p.m. — Nacogdoches
Friday, 6 p.m. — Texarkana

Parts of Houston could get ANOTHER 15-25 inches of rain on top of what has already fallen. Petrochemical Alley could take a big hit.

(Contra a post from Space City Weather, I personally have not seen anybody claiming this will re-intensify to hurricane strength.)

Update, 11 a.m. Sunday: Per the NWS' 10 a.m. Sunday update, it's saying that its predictions from late last night are firming up, BUT, with part of the initial prediction coming back into play.

First, will come the semi-backup, or loop, out to Matagorda Bay. Then, moving inland NNE to NE. In fact, the backup has already started. Current movement is SSE.

Gasoline may become a factor as well. eXXXon is shutting its Baytown refinery. Houston Hobby airport closed. HISD closed all week. Some people are evacuating already.

Update, midnight Saturday/Sunday: now the NWS is saying it will head north-northeast by Wednesday, not due north. Houston not yet totally out of the woods, relatively speaking. NWS latitude and longitude put the eye, tentatively, over Franklin late Thursday night. And, I know where that is (due north of College Station) because I've been there before.

Update, 8 p.m. Saturday: The most recent forecasts, per the updated map, call for it to NOT back out, but slowly head northward.

Otherwise, this appears to be back to worst-case scenario for Houston. Houston ISD is already closing all week.

As of early Sunday afternoon, predictions look like they're starting to firm up for a longer-term path. Harvey should come JUST BARELY west of Houston on a NNE-to-NE path, then track about dead center over Huntsville, then head to Tyler.

Predictions still call for at least 20 inches of rain in the core area and now, as much as 40 inches in spots.

Gov. Greg Abbott was wrong last Friday about thinking Houstonians should evacuate already then. But, looking ahead to Wednesday night at the earliest, Friday morning at the latest, I think he's now shaping up to be right.

Indeed. Some of Houston's major freeways and parkways were reporting high-water closures already on Saturday. Pearland had 10 inches in 90 minutes late Saturday night. And we're a long ways away from next Wednesday.

Especially if you look at this ProPublica/Texas Tribune piece from a year ago, capped by this shorter follow-up specific to Harvey, about how Houston has become engineered by willful stubbornness to be a laboratory for human-induced floods, with elected officials from both Houston and Harris County spineless, and climate deniers running the county's flood control program, 20-plus inches of rain, continuing longer than those from named and unnamed storms of the past few years?

(Stephen Costello, Mayor Sylvester Turner's flood control czar for Houston, also appears to be a climate change denier.)

Not a chance.

Plus, per Weather Underground, if part of Harvey is hanging out over the Gulf for that full trip up to Houston, you'll have a continuous storm surge preventing rivers, creeks and bayous from fully and quickly draining. It's going to be a giant water backup.

Add in that parts of Houston are at, maybe slightly below, sea level to land subsidence from groundwater pumping?

I laugh sardonically now more than ever at former Houston Mayor Annise Parker's claim, while still in office, that Houston would pass Chicago in size in the not-too-distant future.

Wrong!

Chicago doesn't flood and it does have zoning. Something like Harvey, mixed with sluggishness in the energy petrochemicals, oil and gas, sector (ignoring possible damages from Harvey to boot) lack of green energy development in Houston, and Greg Abbott's Texas miracle turning as much to sand as Rick Perry's did, and Houston could get kind of unattractive.

Houston mayors haven't been kleptocratic thugs, unlike Rahm Emanuel. That's about the only thing going for them. And Harris County is simply a hotbed of hackery.

And, I haven't yet even discussed (h/t Brains and Eggs) the fictitious "Hurricane Isaiah" modeled in a New York Times Sunday Review piece a year ago.

Harvey will certainly not be THAT bad. But, it almost surely is going to be far worse than Ike. Ike was nearly a decade ago. Houston, Harris County, and the state of Texas have all had plenty of time to prepare.

And have failed.

No, we're scratching that.

And have refused.

At all levels of government, it's been "open for business" business as usual. Plus climate change denialism, tinged with touches of Agenda 21 conspiracies and more.

Speaking of, the "Isaiah" story gets some things wrong. It doesn't even mention the "carbon tax + carbon tariff" idea that would, contra its claims near the end, force the whole world on one page on climate change. And, rather than mention Houston and Harris County adding permeability and reducing concrete, it touts two different options on Venice Lagoon type dikes or gates.

Wrong.

They might stop an Isaiah, but as the main Pro Publica story shows, they wouldn't do a damn thing to fix rain-induced flooding.

For more on the issues faced by Houston, and how both recent and older politics have contributed, read this collection of articles by the Chronicle.

==

Related on disorganization/update: Brains says "no," the gov is wrong on the evacuation issue, and links to his personal experience evacuating from Rita. That said, Brains notes that Houston was unprepared for evacuation then. Theoretically, on things like lane counterflow, city, state and county are better set this time. After all, there were evacuations from Ike, which, per Wiki, went reasonably well other than those who refused to evacuate because of the Rita clusterfuck.

And, if you REALLY can't get that many people evacuated? Per Ed Abbey's "growth for growth's sake is the theology of the cancer cell," you got too damned many people there.

And, new FEMA head Brock Long (maybe he's also a climate change denier) is also among the politically connected useless idiots:

“You could not draw this forecast up. You could not dream this forecast up.”

Bullshit. Not only do we have ProPublica/Texas Tribune document Houston and Harris County exacerbating flooding, we have, from a year ago, the New York Times Sunday Review with a fictional-for-now essay modeling a Hurricane Isaiah far stronger than this. 

Atlantic signs of global warming

More global warming, more hurricanes this year?

Everybody's talking about NOAA's prediction of about 18 Atlantic named storms this year, with at least eight of them hurricanes. But, lost in the news, perhaps, is the why:

In April the average temperature in the tropical North Atlantic was 1.38 Celsius degrees above average, or about 2.5 Fahrenheit degrees, by far the largest anomaly ever recorded.

That is significant, said Fred Schmude, a forecaster with the Houston-based private weather company ImpactWeather, because scientists have tracked these waters for 62 years.

In those 744 months, the recorded value has exceeded the long-term average by 1 or more Celsius degrees just five times. Three of those five times have occurred in February, March and April of this year.

“Not only are we breaking records, but we are shattering them,” Schmude said.

So much for Faux News' now-disproven global cooling claims during this winter's big East Coast snowstorms.

Yes, part of this is cyclical. But, the highs are hitting new high spots. That's not just a cycle.

BP oil in NC?

Y ep, if enough oil from the Deepwater Horizon gets into the Loop Current, then gets driven in the right way by hurricanes, it could make it all the way to Cape Hatteras, N.C.

Here's the latest skinny:
This year's hurricane season, June 1 to Nov. 30, is expected to be above average with 15 tropical storms of which eight could be hurricanes, according to experts at Colorado State University, the nation's oldest hurricane forecasting team.

Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist at forecaster Weather Underground, says the oil spill adds "an exclamation mark" to the "sense of foreboding" he has over the hurricane season. Storms tend to break up and dilute large spills, but they also spread them over a greater area, he says. ...

The federal Climate Prediction Center will issue its hurricane outlook May 27. Masters and AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi say record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and cooling in the Pacific Ocean resemble conditions in 2004, 2005 and 2008, when multiple storms battered the USA.
But, you say, surely this is a real, real worst-case scenario.

Ahh, but isn't that what BP said about the possibility of a deep-sea blowout as bad as this, as an excuse for not acting?

And, given the Obama Administration's somewhat laggard, somewhat defensive response so far, will that be the attitude it takes?

BP will face a real storm this summer ... a Katrina-like one?

Oops, oops, oops.

Forecasters are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. Eastern Atlantic temperatures are already pushing record highs for this time of year, and there's little to no El Nino to shear off upper-level circulatory winds.

What might a few big storms do to that oil?

Storms may scuttle clean-up efforts, force containment vessels to retreat, or propel spilled crude and tar balls over vast expanses of sea and beach, scientists said.

Meteorologists say that climate conditions are ripe for an unusually destructive hurricane season, the storm-prone period that runs from June 1 to the end of November in the Gulf. Oceanographers say that could hurt the clean-up.

Storms? In the plural? It may only take one, right? Yep.

"It only takes one storm to wreak havoc," said Chris Shabbot, a meteorologist at Sempra in Connecticut. "The consensus forecast is for above average storm activity as the El Nino (event) decays and the Atlantic is as warm or warmer than 2005."

Let me see ... didn't the Gulf have another disaster in 2005? Oh, yeah, Katrina. And not just Katrina. 2005 was chock-full of monster hurricanes pounding the Gulf.

Meanwhile, since we don't even know right now where that spewing oil will settle, we have no idea where or how a hurricane will disperse it.

Bet that wasn't in BP's disaster planning either.

Global warming powers up second El Niño

What does that mean? Well, more years like 2005 — droughts in southeast Asia, more and stronger Atlantic hurricanes.

Hurricanes highest since last global warming

The BBC reports that hurricane frequency is at its highest in 1,000 years, the time of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, also known as the Medieval Warm Period.

Of course, there was no human influence on that warming.

Yes, hurricanes are ramping up

At least, the strongest of them are. Will we have to add a “6” to the Saffir-Simpson scale someday?

Look out Florida – and elsewhere – for more hurricanes

Tropical Storm Hanna could graze your east coast as a Cat 1 hurricane tomorrow, followed by Tropical Depression 9 hitting hurricane status east of the Bahamas by early Thursday.

Hurricane experts agree that the hurricane pot is ripe for boiling:

“Normally in an active season, there are bunches of hurricanes and lulls. It just doesn't seem like there's been bunches of lulls. I sure hope we’re not talking (hurricanes) Christmas Eve,” said meteorology professor Hugh Willoughby at Florida International University.

Experts expect five named storms, four of them hurricanes, for September

Most serious hurricane season since 2005?

Take a look at the picture at Weather Underground.

Hanna’s projected track has been revised westward. First, it will cover more of Florida, still largely soggy from TS Fay. Then, it’s going to go up the whole East Coast, something we’ve not had in a few years.

Ike will hit at least Category 2 hurricane status, and somewhat follow Gustav’s mid-life course, except going north of Hispaniola and Cuba, rather than south.

And, another depression has now been named, as Tropical Storm Josephine. Too early to say much about it.

Look out Florida!

Tropical Storm Hanna could graze your east coast as a Cat 1 hurricane tomorrow, followed by Tropical Depression 9 hitting hurricane status east of the Bahamas by early Thursday.

New Orleans is effed, just effed, it seems — DON’T rebuild

Here’s the Gustav potential storm surge and here’s how vulnerable a worst-case scenario is. (Via Wired.)

And, with the latest projections being that Gustav will still be Category 4 at landfall, and will hit just west enough of the Crescent City itself to give New Orleans the full-on brunt of its more dangerous east-side winds, this is all likely to happen.

And, with us about at new moon, rather than first or last quarter, high tide will probably run pretty strong, to boot.

Soo… this is not a black/white, liberal/conservative, rich/poor or Bush FEMA/Clinton FEMA issue, at all, but…

We should NOT rebuild New Orleans.

PERIOD.

Especially if global warming and climate change presages longer-lasting hurricanes and a longer-lasting season, we should not rebuild New Orleans. Because, at the same time it faces these climate-change waters, the city itself continues to sink from groundwater pumping, and continues to lose wetland space in large part due to loss of siltation from the channelization of the Mississippi.

It’s time to move, and time to move on.

Beyond that, to riff on the other geographically-focused national disaster to which parts of America are prone, we don’t have federal earthquake insurance. It’s high time for Washington to get out of flood insurance, IMO, for both fiscal and environmental reasons.

At the least, require all rebuilding in NOLA, as part of federal flood insurance checks, to be done above sea level. If that means much of NOLA becomes a giant cow pasture, so be it.

Bertha a sign of global warming

Nearly two weeks after forming, Bertha is STILL a tropical storm – AND, could STILL be at tropical storm strength when it hits Iceland.

Has Iceland ever been hit by an officially designated tropical storm before?

Bertha has already set a record as the longest-lived July hurricane on record, as well as the longest-lived July tropical storm and the farthest-east forming one.

Meanwhile, even though the eastern equatorial Atlantic isn’t quite as warm this year as it was in 2005, tropical storm activity is keeping up a steady clip there already.

Heads up weather alert to south Texas

We are officially in hurricane season, and an “invest,” similar to a tropical depression, is in the southwest Caribbean and could be headed your way.

Hurricane season getting longer

And, although it’s not officially been linked to global warming yet, that seems likely.

The warm pool east of the Caribbean is forming earlier in the year, and reaching farther east, both of which are nurturing tropical storms at the start and end of the season.

Read the full story for more on the issue.

Hurricane expert backs off on global warming link

MIT scientist Kerry Emanuel said in a 2005 paper that there seemed to be a statistical link between hurricane intensity and global warming. Well, the paper was controversial indeed at the time, what with Katrina and other major hurricanes of that year.

Well, now, in something sure to be played up by global warming deniers, Emanuel is backing off that earlier claim:

Emanuel stresses that the new work does not disprove a connection between hurricanes and global warming — it just means that the relationship is complicated.

“The idea that there is no connection between hurricanes and global warming, that’s not supported,” he says.

Rather than this being fodder for global warming denialists, instead, it illustrates something they reject — the proper process of how science works.