Cards’ Carpenter looking at the knife — don’t hold your breath

I know it’s “only” for a compressed nerve in his shoulder, but, anytime I read about a pitcher undergoing shoulder surgery, as opposed to elbow surgery, I’m skeptical of a full return. (See Mulder, Mark.)

Carpenter’s closer to 35 than to 30, and while the Cards’ brain trust says he is likely to be back for opening day, we heard good initial words about Mulder, too.

Add to that fact that this surgery is related to his 2004 nerve damage. Carpenter insists it’s no big deal:

“This nerve issue is old and obviously I’ve pitched well with this before, so we just need to correct what’s going on now,” Carpenter said. “I believe I’ll be back and I’ll be fine.”

I’m not so optimistic.

I put the early 2009 over/under on Carpenter wins at 12.5. I’d certainly take a lucky 13.