Intrade Gadfly-style for the week of Sept. 27

Both FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote give Obama a majority in the electoral vote, with FiveThirtyEight.com giving him an outright majority in the popular vote, too.

That said, Electoral-Vote now projects the Senate breakout for the 111th Congress as 58-42. That’s 52 strong, 3 week and 3 barely. The GOP’s projected 42 has 1 barely and 2 weak, so, it is possible.

So, I’ll bump odds of 60 Senate Dems counting Lieberman to 15 percent. And, I’ll put 60 without him on the radar screen at 3 percent.

That’s still as high as I rank Rick Noriega’s chances here in Texas. National Guard down time for Ike, lack of money, and a less-than-dynamic campaign style mean sure defeat unless Cornyn has a huge gaffe in debates or Obama parachutes into Texas for more than just big-donor checks.

My odds on Obama-McCain are 56-44; as for the first debate, I give Obama a slight edge while saying neither one did that well. McCain had five or so clear lies of his own alone, to Obama’s one.

We had three bipartisan lies, on who started the Georgia-Russia war, on mistranslating Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and on throwing around tax breaks we can’t afford.