Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani: A profile and his angle

The place to start is Rafsanjani’s Wiki page, which show a long-term political insider — former President; before that, former Majlis chairman during Reagan’s nutbar “arms for hostages” idea, and current chairman of the Assembly of Experts, which appoints people to the Council of Guardians. The Wiki page also reveals a variety of quotes, that bring under further question just how much of a reformer, a pragmatist, or a non-confrontationist vis-à-vis the US he actually is. Here’s one:

f one day, the Islamic world is also equipped with weapons like those that Israel possesses now, then the imperialists' strategy will reach a standstill because the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality. Of course, you can see that the Americans have kept their eyes peeled and they are carefully looking for even the slightest hint that technological advances are being made by an independent Islamic country. If an independent Islamic country is thinking about acquiring other kinds of weaponry, then they will do their utmost to prevent it from acquiring them. Well, that is something that almost the entire world is discussing right now. (December 2001

While that occurred after George W. Bush became President of the U.S., it was before Iran was labeled part of an “axis of evil,” while Iran was cooperating with the U.S. in Afghanistan, and long before the invasion of Iraq.

Second as the Guardian notes, his 1989-97 presidency was NOT seen as close to a model of toleration by many Iranians. With nicknames like “kingmaker,” “shark” and “Machiavellian,” it’s clear his various electoral positions reflect his skill as an infighter.

Yesterday, I blogged about four endgames for the Iranian post-election turmoil, as listed by The Guardian The fourth of these, as you can see:

3 - Confrontation
The Guardian Council's partial vote recount and investigation into electoral fraud are rejected by the opposition. Demonstrations spread and intensify. Security forces respond with increasing force, … Purge of reformist leaders, intellectuals, students and journalists continues. Leaderless demos gradually peter out. Ahmadinejad steps up anti-western rhetoric. Resumed protests at a later date considered highly likely.

4 - A second revolution
An insider cabal of senior clerical and establishment conservatives challenges Khamenei and forces his resignation after a vote in the Assembly of Experts. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani is elected in his stead and orders an investigation into the actions of Ahmadinejad and other senior members of the regime. Hardliners rally round the president while reformists demand new elections. Amid growing instability, Iran's unique Islamic/secular system of governance appears in danger of collapse.

Is Rafsanjani replacing Khamenei, even while Ahmadinejad remains president.

I’ve said before that I see a Rafsanjani-Ahmadinejad deal as a possibility, even though Ahmadinejad leveled corruption charged at Rafsanjani during the election. Given the fluidity of definition of “moderate” (and the Sully-Cole grouping here in America sounding more and more like Ronald Reagan, circa 1985-86), deals are possible all across the Iranian spectrum.

Here, Iran strikes me as being kind of like Nazi Germany minus Hitler at the top. Many competing power centers, with the Council of Guardians the highest, but by no means having a power stranglehold. (While the Council, and the Supreme Leader, are the highest, they’re by no means the sole lever of power.)

That’s another reason why power deals seem possible across a variety of political orientations.

Here’s another: Rather than booting Khamenei upstairs to Supreme Leader Emeritus, maybe Rafsanjani offers him the face-saver of swapping jobs, by him taking Rafsanjani’s spot on the Assembly of Experts.