Nothing different between 2005 and 2009 Iran elections?

That’s the bottom line of Flynt Leverett.

Leverett isn’t some crazy neocon with axes to grind, and he also has points. Ahmedinejad’s margin of victory? Almost exactly the same. Mousavi’s ethnicity? Ahmadinejad speaks Azeri fluently. And, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei is Azeri.

That said, Leverett overlooks the key point of evidence against him — how could the Council of Guardians call the election so quickly when the country still uses paper ballots. On the other hand, pro-Mousavi pundits in the West generally overlook him claiming victory before the election was even done.

On the third hand, he’s right about multiple power centers, and his mention of Mousavi’s association with Ayatollah Rafsanjani reinforces my belief about who has the most to win from all this.

And, finally, Leverett is right about how much American liberal pundits are overreading how much different Mousavi would be as president vs. Ahmadinejad.