Iran coup by Ahmadinejad against Khamenei?

In posting yesterday, I discounted what other commentators were citing as “proof” of elections rigged by Iran’s clerical Council of Guardians to get President Mahmound Ahmadinejad re-elected against former Parliament Speaker Mir Mousavi.

I referenced the Guardian’s Abbas Barzegar, who said Western pundits engaged in wishful thinking to the degree the Western press largely didn’t even report on the size of Ahmedinejad’s biggest rallies, including one that may have hit 1 million people.

Other analysts noted that, while Iran’s clerics have, in the past, simply refused to allow reformers to run in the first place, they normally haven’t rigged elections.

So, what about possibility No. 3 — a coup by Ahmadinejad against the Council and Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

Steve Clemons gives it serious discussion.

The Nation, as linked by MideastAnalysis, has an in-depth report.

Actions such as concrete street barricades, the actions of the Revolutionary Guards and more, as well as Ahmadinejad’s tenuous-at-times relationship to the high clerics, this seems at least as likely as Khamenei rigging the election. Now, the coup would have been getting prepared in advance, of course, but how much? How much depth of support would a coup have?

And, per Clemons, is a counter-coup possible?

I would say as an attempt, it’s possible; as a success, not likely.