Wainwright out for year; Pedro as replacement?

It's official. St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, it turns out, will need the dreaded Tommy John surgery.

Replacements? John Mozeliak, beyond mentioning spring training promotions from the minors, is talking Pedro Martinez and Kevin Millwood.

Ugh. Pedro hasn't had a 30-start season in six years. Millwood? 2009 was his only decent, and even then, not that good, season in the last six years.

Promotions from the minors? The Cardinal prospect list in general is thin, and no minor-league starters have been touted.

One NL scout, going beyond the sabermetric WAR, calls this a 10-win dropoff, in talking to ESPN.

That said, now that the worst is true? Beyond Wainwright, what does this mean for Albert Pujols?

Wainwright might not be back until the middle of 2012 and not be back to 100 percent effectiveness until 2013. That would mean the first year of a new Pujols contract is unlikely to show dividends in the postseason. So, management might engage in loss-cutting and rebuilding mode. Trades made during the year this year could be one sign of that.

Supporting that? That same NL scout:

"The Cardinals have very few of what I'd call 'B' players," the same scout said. "They have 'A' players -- and then they have 'guys.' Now Yadier Molina has to be the best catcher in the league. Pujols has to be the best first baseman in the league. They need big improvement from their center fielder (Colby Rasmus). Those are the things that have to happen. They have to be an offensive team now."

Also per that same ESPN link — will this affect whether or not the Cards' pick up Chris Carpenter's option at the end of this year? I already leaned no, thinking of a two-year new contract at lower value. This only reinforces that.

On the other hand, a team without both Wainwright AND Pujols might not be close to contention for the postseason. In fact, it might be far enough "out" to have impact at the turnstiles.

So, stay tuned. But, yes, Wainwright's injury can't be viewed in the light of him alone.

And, it turns out Ken Rosenthal agrees. He even wonders if this will change Pujols' mind on being traded this year.

Also, a third player may be affected by all of this.

Chris Carpenter knows he could be traded if the team doesn't compete.

Meanwhile, Gene Wojciechowski of ESPN says "pony up" for would-be Albert Pujols suitors not named (or maybe including) the St. Louis Cardinals.