Afghan victory is just around the corner!

Stop me if you're hear this one before. Military vets Nathaniel Fick and John Nagl of Center for a New American Security claim that this time victory really is near.

First, per Source Watch, CNAS is a "neocentrist" site — the foreign policy equivalent of a neolib site. (Note John Podesta's presence on its board, as well as neocentrist flaks now part of Team Obama.)
First, it's almost neocon, IMO. If warmonger Tom Ricks is a "senior fellow," it earns that description. And, Mark Lynch may give it a veneer of realism, but at some point, the way the Middle East is right now, he, and others, will have to stand and be counted more on things like ... well, Palestine.

OK, deconstructing a couple of Fick/Nagl claims:

Half of the violence in Afghanistan takes place in only 9 of its nearly 400 districts.

Yeah, and that means the Taliban can move around to new districts.

Next, while decrying kill counts, the duo touts "capture counts" — with the minor problem of not supplying specific figures.

Then:

Afghan Army troop strength has increased remarkably.

What about troop quality? Overall, not just one anecdote.

And, looking ahead at future concerns:

The first is uncertainty about how long America and its allies will remain committed to the fight. The question is still open, but President Obama and the NATO secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, have effectively moved the planned troop withdrawal date from July 2011 to at least 2014, with surprisingly little objection.

I guess more and more of the American public wanting to leave doesn't sway the claim of "surprisingly little objection." Especially as a new Gallup poll shows a full one-third of Americans want us to take a minimal role in foreign affairs. But, when your friends populate the Administration...

And, re Karzai, Pakistan and corruption, they claim:

We are establishing a task force to investigate and expose corruption in the Afghan government, under the leadership of Brig. Gen. H. R. McMaster. We are also shoring up the parts of the border that the Taliban uses by thickening the line with Afghan forces, putting up more drones and coordinating more closely with Pakistani border guards.

"Investigate and expose" is different than "enforce." The February National Geographic had a great story on opium poppies in Afghanistan. Even people seemingly upright turn a blind eye on more than the occasional occasion.

Shoring up the border with Pakistan, etc? The apparent murders committed in Lahore by purported CIA agent Raymond Davis have probably put a damper in that.