Carpenter gone from Cardinals?

Adam Wainwright's need for Tommy John surgery has already been projected to affect how likely the Cardinals are to shell out money to resign Albert Pujols.

Wainwright might not be back until the middle of 2012 and not be back to 100 percent effectiveness until 2013. That would mean the first year of a new Pujols contract is unlikely to show dividends in the postseason. So, management might engage in loss-cutting and rebuilding mode. Trades made during the year this year could be one sign of that.

But, a third player also may be affected by all of this.

Chris Carpenter knows he could be traded if the team doesn't compete.

I've already expressed my guess before, that the Cards will NOT pick up Carp's $15M option for 2012. I could see the team making a two-year offer of about $11-12M a year, with a third-year team option of about $10M. Nothing more than that, though.

But, unless the injury bug hits elsewhere in the division, on paper at this point, the Cards are No. 3 behind Reds and Brewers. If that plays out in reality, it's all a matter of how soon the Cards fall off the pace, and how much, before they look at roster moves.

On the other hand, if the Cards could ink him to an extension of the sort I just mentioned, and he seems healthy enough, they'll certainly hold on to him, I think.