SocraticGadfly: If you thought Bush was an idiot on Katrina ...

August 24, 2020

If you thought Bush was an idiot on Katrina ...



It's possible you ain't seen nothing yet.

We know Trump was an even bigger idiot, and racist, over Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

And, it's possible you ain't seen nothing yet.

Riffing on Katrina, it's possible that Louisiana, later this week, will get hit back-to-back, within 72 hours or less, by two separate hurricanes. Marco is already a hurricane, and Laura is expected to move up there from its current tropical storm status.

Yale Climate Connections, in its Sunday prognostications, first raised the possibility of both hitting Louisiana. That's Marco at upper left and Laura at lower right.

Weather Underground is still saying it expects Marco to come further west and hit Texas. We'll see. But, even its predictions allow for the possibility of heavy rain and surf on the Louisiana coast. Basically, it's expecting a Harvey in reverse, scraping the Gulf coast from east to west and starting further east.

Whatever the track of the two storms, as with coronavirus, you can expect Trump to hugely mishandle this. Meanwhile, if Weather Underground is right on Marco? That's bad news for a Houston that has many poorer neighborhoods still not fully recovered from Harvey.

Yale Climate is leaning more on UKMET's forecast track, while Weather Underground is following more on NHC. And this raises a sidebar issue about Weather Underground.

A month or two ago, I complained about the "shadow" text on its map graphics. Didn't realize, or think, until yesterday, that that is probably part of something bigger.

And, that "bigger" is its parent, IBM, shuttering the "Category 6" weather blog, whose top two staff ... are now at Yale Climate. The related maps issue is that Weather Underground used to show ALL of the top five-six different world meteorological forecasting agencies tracking projections. Yale Climate still often does this, and has them for Marco on the link above, and also, on a previous post, as a look at overall accuracy, when it said that the NHC is generally better but UKMET has consistently been tops on Marco. That "migration" is part why I added Yale Climate to my blogroll.

Anyway, the "dance" starts today. And, in case you're wondering, yes, NOLA is supposed to flood. Beyond the possibility of Marco doing a reverse Harvey, I wonder if it could, not with a Fujiwara effect, but in some other way cause Laura to stall out after landfall, adding to South Louisiana flooding. And, adding further to the shitstorm, the big levee at Grand Isle was damaged two months ago, and the Corps of Engineers and the state have been wrangling on who should pay to fix it and other things. More here on video of the state taking over work, which will only be Band-aided.

(Update: Louisiana and Trump's idiocy both got lucky, per Yale CC. Marco is now a TS as of Tuesday afternoon and may only be a TD at landfall. Laura is still looking to intensify, but the Bermuda high now has it hitting Texas, most likely somewhere not really far from Houston.)

But ... "climate change is just a myth," or "climate change is a socialist plot," right, Rethuglicans?

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