SocraticGadfly: Joe Straus vs Greg Abbott: Who you like?

July 19, 2019

Joe Straus vs Greg Abbott: Who you like?

As reported in brief in a Texas Progressives' roundup of a few weeks back, former Speaker Joe Straus has started a PAC. Supposedly, he might run for higher office in 2022. That would mean Greg Abbott, assuming Straus doesn't settle for a fight against Danny Goeb, as there's no U.S. Senate race in 2022, unless he's looking at a U.S. House run.

So, realistically, what are Straus' odds?

First take? No more than 25 percent, in my book. Strangeabbott has avoided being too closely tied to Goeb, let alone TP wingnuts like Former Fetus Forever Fuckwad Jonathan Stickland. He'll have a huge war chest, plus to the degree such things still exist, patronage, and as we know it still exists, intimidation.

Now, if Straus went against Goeb for Lite Guv? I'll give him a solid 35 percent shot, at a minimum. Plus, given their differing stances on the bathroom bill and Straus' comments about that, wouldn't you rather see this showdown anyway? Goeb is more hamhanded, first, and second, doesn't have the political capital that Abbott does.

Maybe Straus' target is Goeb. But, having been Speaker, I can't see him settling for less than the top job.

If he were — unlikely, to me — looking at the House, that means Joaquin Castro's 20th, Chip Roy's 21st in an interesting primary, or Will Hurd's 23rd, which I doubt he would do, ConservaDem Henry Cuellar's 28th (very interesting) or Lloyd Doggett's gerrymandered 35th, if Straus wants something San Antonio-related, whether or not his current home is in one of those districts.

That doesn't make a lot of sense, though, as he could be running now, unless he wanted that much politics downtime but still wants back in the game. That wouldn't make sense either.

Beyond that, per the Trib link up top, Straus doesn't indicate any interest in federal level politics.

So, it's Straus vs either Strangeabbott or Goeb unless he backs out. Getcha popcorn!


Update, Aug. 7: Straus, interestingly, hasn't called out Abbott on gun control issues in the wake of Patrick Crusius' racist shoot-up in El Paso. That said, the ardently pro-life "moderate conservative" Straus has a 93 percent rating from NRA, so, we probably won't hear any such callouts.

And hence, for this, and other reasons, given that the left hand of the duopoly has added enough state House seats, and may add more 15 months from now, per the caption on the picture?

Nope, Joe, not a lot. That said, let's see if the Democritters do add that many more seats, and, if they remain short of a majority, how much Bonnen accommodates them in the next Lege.

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