Peak Permian is still likely to be here sooner rather than later

Per DeSmog Blog (and others I have noted in the past, like Ari Berman), we may well be getting closer and closer to a new peak of production in the Permian Basin, despite all the breathless gushing by American wingnuts about energy independence — along with less than the most critical reporting on this issue by Texas' largest newspaper.

Horizontally-drilled fracking wells dropped in tight clusters have a tendency to cannibalize each other's oil. DeSmog Blog itself wrote about this 18 months ago. Per that DeSmog Blog link, I have also blogged about this issue six months before that second link, and looked beyond just the Permian.

As for 2020 being a possible peak? In my blog post, one of the links, in February 2018, said the peak, and for all big fields, not just the Permian, might come in just four years from then. That would be the start of 2022, a year later than DeSmog Blog, but certainly in the same neighborhood. It's also of importance in that it covers all the major fields, not just the Permian, which means ... Peak Oil, period, if you will.

DeSmog Blog also looks at the fiscal side of what's behind all the drilling, as I have done before, too. Basically, oil frackers are largely in the middle of a Ponzi scheme no different than that of Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake with natural gas a decade ago — which still hasn't fully dissipated either. It's not so confined to one company, which is both good and bad. It means we won't have one major player go kablooey, but it means its even more widespread, if not so sharply deep. That said, gas fracking Ponziness wasn't totally just McClendon, either.

 I have blogged and tweeted before about how half of the "boom" of modern fracked wells is faster well flow and only half is increased overall production. If not Toyota, which hasn't improved overall fuel economy in a decade, Honda and others are lying in wait for SUV-addicted American car companies to hit another crunch.


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Per another, newer piece by DeSmog Blog, maybe Peak Permian is ALREADY here. "Oil" from new fracking is looking more and more gassy. No, really; much of it is just about light enough to qualify for what the Railroad Commission considers condensate. Also contra Trump and others on "energy independence," this ultralight stuff HAS TO be blended with heavier grades from elsewhere — as in, imported — for the best refining.

DeSmog Blog notes other thing yours truly has said for some time — fracking produces somewhat more oil, but even more, it produces the oil it does at a much faster flow rate, making it look like a big boom just before the big bust.

And this is not just the Permian — it's fracking. That same piece notes that wells in the Bakken decline just as fast, and decline faster yet in the Eagle Ford.

For that matter, per a recent blog post, per why and how King Hubbert calculated it, Peak Oil itself was actually true. 

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Update, March 14: And now, coronavirus plus the collapse of OPEC+ are further cratering prices.