SocraticGadfly: Analysis: US spin-doctor triumphalism on the MUTINY that failed

June 25, 2023

Analysis: US spin-doctor triumphalism on the MUTINY that failed

I eventually was making so many additions to my post yesterday about Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prizoghin's would-be apparent coup, eventually defused by Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, that I decided I needed a second post, especially as most the updates were based on the theme of this post. And, per Mark Ames, I changed "coup" to "mutiny" and decided to go all-caps to make it clear. (Some MSM is doing the same.) And, Prigozhin has never claimed this was a coup, and it's highly unlikely it was.

Speaking of Ames, go to Updates below, starting with the Radio War Nerd interview with Anatol Lieven. Then note the note about Johnny-come-lately Eric Draitser of Counterpunch Radio after that. Then the butt-hurt silliness of Seymour Hersh after that.

BlueAnon Tweets by the likes of the ever-more-odious Laurence Tribe, citing one of several WaPost op-ed pieces, have now all spun to variations on a theme that was part of the header of the WaPost piece that Tribe Tweeted: "Putin blinked." And, no, I choose not to even bother linking to it.

A. Bullshit. He made a reasonable decision, through Lukashenko, on what to do. He did NOT flee Moscow or anything close to actual "blinking."

Did Russia take serious precautions to stop a coup or coup light, while also working to arrest him before that can happen? Absolutely. Contra Nat-Sec Nutsacks™ leading light Kevin Rothrock, whom I mocked last night both seriously:

and sarcastically:

I didn't think Putin was seriously" panicked, but he was "reasonably" so, and more so with this developing more since last night. Once again, he did not "blink."

As for the details of the agreement? Prigozhin goes into exile in Belarus; troops off hook, can still sign new contracts with Russia. Per Lukashenko, no blood shed in Russia. No matter whether Prigozhin got Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov sacked or not, it's a reasonable deal under the circumstances.

B. Ergo, this is US-NATO Nat-Sec Nutsack triumphalism, which, since it can't tout a successful coup, can instead spin this to variations on "the end is nigh" for Vladimir V. Putin. I remind these people that James K. Galbraith told them just two months ago that sanctions haven't really hurt Russia.

And, as I said to Tribe, this is the same WaPost that remains unapologetic for its triumphalism of 20 years ago on the op-ed page, when it was one of the top cheerleaders for Shrub Bush's invasion of Iraq. The same holds true for the New York Slimes, which probably has similar on its op-ed page today.

Meanwhile, this Ukraine flag-flyer who I tagged along with Tribe as one of the top respondents to his original tweet hoist themselves by their own petard:

As I responded:

BOOM. 

And, "Harvards" like Kimberly St. John and non-prophets not honored in their homelands like Mikhail Gorbachev can lie, and did lie, about what Baker told Gorbachev nearly 25 years ago. Per various past posts, Brookings, Harvard prof Kimberly St. Julian-Varnon (indirectly and more on Twitter) and Anne Applebaum, and Gorbachev himself, among others, lied directly about what Baker actually said.

Said person compounded their wrongs by claiming Gorbachev was not head of the USSR 24 years ago and apparently believing it had already dissolved then, and framing NATO as a "defensive alliance," which might not be totally false, but in the wake of the Balkans wars of the 1990s is not totally true, and is even less true if one looks at the US/quasi-NATO bombing of Libya.

As I also told Ms. Ukraine Congeniality 2023, one can indeed question Putin's competence, both personally and the dynamic duo above, about why they didn't expect this possibility and take better advance preparations. Mark Ames said the other day that, assuming Russia did it, the Dneipro dam destruction was probably the dumbest decision besides Russia entering the war. But, he's just a "tankie," like me, to someone like Adams — and many others, despite Ames making clear that's not the case.

Beyond that, claiming that people like me are victims of propaganda when you probably believe every word uttered in the service of Russiagate is laughable.

I get it. You folks had a wet dream, or more a would-be wet dream that was interrupted by dreamtime coitus interruptus, and now you're spinning.

Also, for the MSM and the Nat-sec Nutsacks? Beyond the spoiled wet dream, think again and offer substance to back up your claims that Putin's edifice has permanently crumbled. Lukashenko was an active intervenor to defuse this. Chinese and Russian foreign policy leaders are still scheduled to meet this week. Ukraine made no major breakthroughs during the brief mutiny time. Per my Galbraith link above, people were claiming sanctions would crush Russia. And they haven't.

As for Prigozhin's future? Yes, it's possible Putin still wants vengeance, and as with Alexander Litvinenko, has a Polonium 210 pellet queued up.

Meanwhile, one of the Nat-sec Nutsacks told on himself and his peers about how crappy the Ukrainian-Zelensky vaunted offensive really is, without thinking about it:

“I honestly think that Wagner probably did more damage to Russian aerospace forces in the past day than the Ukrainian offensive has done in the past three weeks,” Michael Kofman, director of Russia Studies at the CAN research group, said in a podcast.

There you go.

==

Update one: An unlocked Radio War Nerd interview with Anatol Lieven has him calling more bullshit on the idea that Putin's Russia is about to collapse. Lieven also notes that Prigozhin seemed frustrated that all his previous videos were just not getting Putin's attention. At the same time, as also discussed in his second-latest piece at Quincy, at the end of May, Lieven notes that a proto-succession crisis may be starting to creep over the horizon. From there, on the podcast, Lieven says, siting the Kursk disaster, that Putin doesn't like to appear to be doing things under pressure. So, if that's the case, how long until Shoigu and Gerasimov get sacked? On the war itself, in April, he said the battlefield was already "frozen," due to a mixture of mines and artillery. He adds that the rich in Kiev act as unaffected by the war as the rich in Moscow. Finally, in his latest piece, contra #BlueAnon in the US, and neocons as well, and their equivalents in other NATO countries, he shows that this war shows the power of draftee infantry — and the need for it — and that NATO countries ignore this at their peril. Lieven concludes with the pressure on Zelensky's political future to not give up one inch. RWN host Mark Ames joked sardonically about a Jewish president and a stab in the back.

Joe Costello also briefly riffs on the mutiny, noting an exchange he had with Ames. He, like me, picks up on the parallels with America and Blackwater, while noting, indirectly, that we never had Blackwater patrolling the border with Mexico or making an excursion against "narco-terrorists" there. Indeed, this was playing with fire to use Wagner semi-domestically, but, that's part of how Putin was able to launch this as a "special military operation." 

Update two: James Dorsey, a must-read on Middle East issues, offers some good insights on how the mutiny attempt is playing out more broadly, especially vis-a-vis Chinese plans in Central Asia and worries this might have upset various applecarts, especially dependent on Wagner's post-Prigozhin future outside Russian borders.

Update three: At Counterpunch Radio, Eric Draitser finally weighs in on June 29, kind of an eternity in this world. Judging by the list of topics, he doesn't sound like he has any new insight, for the wait, and that his old insight probably isn't as good as Radio War Nerd. I mean, a week on, his rhetorical question second bullet point, and the expansion of that in his first 30 seconds, without mentioning the word "mutiny"? Indeed, that word is never used in the entire podcast. Halfway in, about "why it ended so soon," Draitser halfway peddles backdoor bank-shotted Nat-sec Nutsack rumors. He is better with rhetorical-question analysis about what could mean for Wagner in specific and Russia in general in Africa.

Update four: Sy Hersh weighs in with something that has even less new analysis of Russia than Draitser, but with plenty of ax-grinding against Warmonger Joe. You know it's bad because it lacks fake-breathless leaks and is totally unpaywalled.

Sadly, none of these three updates answers my big "why" question, and that is, really a two parter: Why didn't Putin see this in advance and thus, why didn't he nip it in the bud earlier? For that, we go to ...

Update five: John Helmer expects Prigozhin's fate will be similar to former Yukos boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Unlike Alexander Litvinenko, he did not take a Polonium 210 bullet in the ass, but was stripped of most of his assets before being pushed into exile. If Prig in Belarus is in house arrest, Helmer insinuates that the only way he gets out of that is by accepting similar punishment willingly.

The other biggie is that Helmer insinuates Shoigu and Gerasimov may stick. He also notes that, contra western triumphalism, Shoigu reportedly was IN Rostov, and knew of Prigozhin's plans in advance, at least the broad outline. So, while not fully a "rope enough to hang himself" scenario, it's something to that effect. It sounds conspiratorial, though; why wouldn't Prig be arrested before causing as much trouble as he did? Or, get the Litvinenko treatment?

Since Helmer's claims are based on state and semi-state media, this comes off as possibly being a case of Putin writing himself into the scene, even if he didn't actually know so much in advance, as in, in the wonderful book "The Commissar Vanishes," Stalin's photo retouchers often wrote him into the scene in pictures from 1917-18. Moon of Alabama goes down the same path, claiming that "orders were obviously given for everyone to stand down." Cuing Jeff St. Clair and his "more credulous precincts of the left" bon mot.

That said, since Helmer has a background of conspiratorial thinking, let's turn it on its head. Both Khodorkovsky and Prigozhin are half-Jewish. And, Chris Cook of Gorilla Radio, going by his Twitter, with as of the time of typing this, his 10th tweet being a retweet of a claim that Universal Basic Income is going to be enacted by a fake banking crash, engineered by banksters, using "Central Banking Digital Coupons"? Oy. Half a dozen tweets below that is a retweet of RFK Jr at his antivaxxer worst, claiming the CIA conducted vaccine-based medical torture.

I have now edited and rewritten these updates into a new piece about, thanks again Jeff St Clair, Prigozhin and the more credulous precincts of the left.

Update five: At Unherd, Aris Rousinnos notes that Shiogu and Gerasimov have yet to be visible again. Also there, Edward Luttwak blames Putin for being dumb enough and bureaucratic enough to accept the duo's original war plan.

Meanwhile,  hypocritical chuds at Reddit's r/politics leave up this MSM/Nat-sec Nutsack fellating post even though it clearly violates rules about not clearly being about US politics. (The moderator chuds hauled down a post of mine two weeks ago about Ellsberg's death, claiming it was in violation even though I tied it to weaponization of the Espionage Act.) The great majority of posters and commenters there are in the same vein: #BlueAnon chuds. Also, none of my comments there show up on my personal feed, which makes me wonder if I'm being shadow-banned.

Labels: , , ,
at Sunday, June 25, 2023 Posted by Gadfly

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)