Prigozhin: Will this commissar also vanish? The more credulous precincts of the left never will

This is a reworking plus an expansion to a series of updates on my post a week ago analyzing Western mainstream media and Nat-sec Nutsacks' PR spinning after their would-be triumphalism over Yevgeny Prigozhin was dashed when his mutiny failed. It is also a crystallization of my thoughts about some leftist writers takes on the Russia-Ukraine war, and albeit not cited, even more of such takes scattered about Twitter.

A fair part of it is looking at, per Jeff St. Clair's bon mot of years ago over Julian Assange, "the more credulous precincts of the left." My one addition is that, per motivated reasoning, they're usually willingly credulous.

With that, we start with this old book:

 
The Commissar Vanishes: The Falsification of Photographs and Art in Stalin's Russia by David King
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

Excellent book.

After Stalin muscled his way to the to of the Soviet hierarchy, he of course then started muscling Trotsky and his allies aside. Later, he threw away people he had once used, of course.

As part of this, Soviet PR flunkies began "disappearing" people from official photographs. People like commissars of people's affairs, etc.

Hence, the title of the book.

On the flip side, a subtitle could be "Stalin appears."

For various reasons, he was not at a lot of early Revolutionary events in 1917-18. So, same flunkies started cutting him in.

King has "before" and "after" documentary evidence in both cases.

In some cases, this pre-Photoshop photoshopping was easy. In some semi-hard cases, it was done crudely. In others, it was done quite skillfully. As a newspaper editor and nature photographer, while decrying the playing with history, I have to salute the skill.

View all my reviews

And, we now look at those updates, starting with those willingly more credulous precincts.

John Helmer expects Prigozhin's fate will be similar to former Yukos boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Unlike Alexander Litvinenko, he did not take a Polonium 210 bullet in the ass, but was stripped of most of his assets before being pushed into exile. If Prig in Belarus is in house arrest, Helmer insinuates that the only way he gets out of that is by accepting similar punishment willingly.

The other biggie is that Helmer insinuates Shoigu and Gerasimov may stick. He also notes that, contra western triumphalism, Shoigu reportedly was IN Rostov, and knew of Prigozhin's plans in advance, at least the broad outline. So, while not fully a "rope enough to hang himself" scenario, it's something to that effect. It sounds conspiratorial, though; why wouldn't Prig be arrested before causing as much trouble as he did? Or, get the Litvinenko treatment?

Since Helmer's claims are based on state and semi-state media, this comes off as possibly being a case of Putin writing himself into the scene, even if he didn't actually know so much in advance, as in, in the wonderful book "The Commissar Vanishes," Stalin's photo retouchers often wrote him into the scene in pictures from 1917-18. Moon of Alabama goes down the same path, claiming that "orders were obviously given for everyone to stand down." Cuing Jeff St. Clair and his "more credulous precincts of the left" bon mot.

That said, since Helmer has a background of conspiratorial thinking, as noted by me here, let's turn it on its head.  Both Khodorkovsky and Prigozhin are half-Jewish. And, Chris Cook of Gorilla Radio, going by his Twitter, with as of the time of typing this, his 10th tweet being a retweet of a claim that Universal Basic Income is going to be enacted by a fake banking crash, engineered by banksters, using "Central Banking Digital Coupons"? Well, since Helmer, per my link just above, talked about the Rothschilds' past conspiring against Russia, this is obviously all a Jewish or half-Jewish plot, isn't it? Oy.

I'm not yet done with Cook, though. Half a dozen tweets below that is a retweet of RFK Jr at his antivaxxer worst, claiming the CIA conducted vaccine-based medical torture. Yes, MKUltra's Subproject 68 existed, but this is reading a LOT into it, and contra Orisanmi Burton at Truthout, and especially contra the artwork, I doubt even the CIA would have administered LSD, the main drug of Subproject 68, with a vaccine needle.

In another retweet, Cook has someone else calling Putin "soft" vs Recep Tayyip Erdogan when he put down the mid-level officers' mutiny in Turkey a few years ago, which inspired the title for this.

I'm also not fully done with Moon of Alabama. I've had previous problems with MoA, too, as with Helmer. See here for my take on his take on Sy Hersh and Nord Stream.

And, final sidebar on MoA's link about Prig? He also talks about the Kramatorsk attack. Just because one mercenary there may have had a sign related to the US 3rd Ranger Battalion this does not mean that any current US military is there. Lots of ex-US soldiers become soldiers of fortune.

Also contra these nutters is the fact that Putin used troops loyal to Chechen boss Ramzan Kadyrov to cut off Wagner, and not conventional military. Had Putin and his General Staff flunkies known about Prig's move in advance, they'd have been better prepared. That said, that piece itself is interesting, on how "tentative" Kadyrov's engagement was and how he, no less and possibly more than Prigozhin, looks out for himself first, Vladimir Putin second.

And, per this piece by UnHerd, I don't know how many of the "more credulous" accept at face value all of Prigozhin's claims that Putin was misled into the war, or at least some of its details, by Shoigu et al.

Finally, Helmer has a new piece, much of it actually looking at Prigozhin's right-hand-man at Wagner and its actual founder, Dmitry Utkin. Putin himself knew about Prig's graft and grift detailed in the piece, of course. And, contra his claims that the "special military operation" had de-Nazification of Ukraine as a major goal, he surely knows about Utkin's SS tattoos that are known to the public, and probably about others not revealed. Interesting that Helmer doesn't comment on that. Also "interesting" is that for a guy who has been reporting from Russia as long as he has, Helmer doesn't refer people to a blog tag for more about Utkin, but rather, his Wikipedia page.

Or, per an Unherd piece, especially for Helmer and others like Eva Karene Bartlett inside Russia, we could talk about Putin's useful idiots. That said, take Justin Ling himself with a grain of salt, or call him a "US-NATO useful idiot." Remember, no twosiderism!

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For better information on Prigozhin?

An unlocked Radio War Nerd interview with Anatol Lieven has him calling more bullshit on the idea that Putin's Russia is about to collapse. Lieven also notes that Prigozhin seemed frustrated that all his previous videos were just not getting Putin's attention. At the same time, as also discussed in his second-latest piece at Quincy, at the end of May, Lieven notes that a proto-succession crisis may be starting to creep over the horizon. From there, on the podcast, Lieven says, siting the Kursk disaster, that Putin doesn't like to appear to be doing things under pressure. So, if that's the case, how long until Shoigu and Gerasimov get sacked? On the war itself, in April, he said the battlefield was already "frozen," due to a mixture of mines and artillery. He adds that the rich in Kiev act as unaffected by the war as the rich in Moscow. Finally, in his latest piece, contra #BlueAnon in the US, and neocons as well, and their equivalents in other NATO countries, he shows that this war shows the power of draftee infantry — and the need for it — and that NATO countries ignore this at their peril. Lieven concludes with the pressure on Zelensky's political future to not give up one inch. RWN host Mark Ames joked sardonically about a Jewish president and a stab in the back. (I know he was joking; that said, per the above?)

Joe Costello also briefly riffs on the mutiny, noting an exchange he had with Ames. He, like me, picks up on the parallels with America and Blackwater, while noting, indirectly, that we never had Blackwater patrolling the border with Mexico or making an excursion against "narco-terrorists" there. Indeed, this was playing with fire to use Wagner semi-domestically, but, that's part of how Putin was able to launch this as a "special military operation." Thoughts like these by both Costello and Ames also at least indirectly undercut Helmer, Gorilla Radio, MofA and others claiming that Putin had this all in hand, all along. This is why I'm a skeptical leftist.

But, not a skeptical leftist who's born a high degree of animus since the start of the war. And, so?

At Counterpunch Radio, Eric Draitser finally weighs in on the mutiny, but not until June 29, kind of an eternity in this world. Judging by the list of topics, he doesn't sound like he has any new insight, for the wait, and that his old insight probably isn't as good as Radio War Nerd. I mean, a week on, his rhetorical question second bullet point, and the expansion of that in his first 30 seconds, without mentioning the word "mutiny"? Indeed, that word is never used in the entire podcast. Halfway in, about "why it ended so soon," Draitser halfway peddles backdoor bank-shotted Nat-sec Nutsack rumors. He is better with rhetorical-question analysis about what could mean for Wagner in specific and Russia in general in Africa.

Worse? Sy Hersh weighs in with something that has even less new analysis of Russia than Draitser, but with plenty of ax-grinding against Warmonger Joe.

Assuming Helmer et al are at least half full of shit, none of the non-MSM analysis answers me "why" question, and that is, really a two parter: Why didn't Putin see this in advance and thus, why didn't he nip it in the bud earlier?