SocraticGadfly: Quick thoughts on Prigozhin, Putin and Russia-Ukraine war

June 24, 2023

Quick thoughts on Prigozhin, Putin and Russia-Ukraine war

First, as of the time I write this, it appears that Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group mercenary army, is indeed focused on Moscow and President Vladimir Putin. Second, it appears he has not yet been seized.

Special update: Due to all the PR spinning by BlueAnon and Nat-sec Nutsacks about how much Putin has been "damaged" by the coup that wasn't, rather than continuing to post new updates here, I've instead done a new post about the spinning.

Is Russia taking serious precautions to stop a coup or coup light, while also working to arrest him before that can happen? Absolutely. Contra Nat-Sec Nutsacks™ leading light Kevin Rothrock, whom I mocked last night both seriously:

and sarcastically:

I don't think Putin is "seriously" panicked, but he is "reasonably" so, and more so with this developing more since last night.

==

Update, midday of this day, US time: Per Max Seddon and others, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has negotiated a "stand-down" by Prigozhin. Details still to come. Surely Prigozhin himself, as well as his troops, get an amnesty. To the degree any of his earlier bitching about the Russian Defense Ministry was legit, maybe a sacking or two?

Update to the update, 7 pm Eastern: Prigozhin goes into exile in Belarus; troops off hook, can still sign new contracts with Russia. No word on whether Prigozhin got Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov sacked or not. Kremlin spox Dmitri Peskov said that Prigozhin couldn't have discussed that with Lukashenko. (And, that's a lie, of course, and if he did discuss it, Lukashenko certainly could have, and likely would have, raised it with Putin.)

Here's why it's a lie:

Media reports citing Lukashenko's press service said the president engaged in extensive negotiations with Prigozhin throughout the "entire day" after establishing a mutual understanding with Putin. 
Before his negotiations with Wagner's chief, he held talks with Putin and they agreed on joint actions and “additionally clarifying the situation through his own channels.”

Simple enough and now back to the original update.

And, as I just said on Twitter, the #BlueAnon/#BlueMAGA hot takes of a coup in Russia written before noon Eastern time today look like they've fallen as flat as an overbaked souffle. 

Second update to the update, 7 pm: John Helmer weighs in and says Prigozhin never had officer support. He also notes, per the paragraph above, that Ukraine had no breakthroughs at this time. He also confirms the "Here's why" link information.

==

Is this as serious as the 1991 coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev and really against Boris Yeltsin? I think not. While there are surely state institutional level low murmurs of discontent against the war, Prigozhin has nothing like the old guard of state apparatchiks supporting him, mainly because, with Putin in power (including four years behind the scenes with Dmitri Medvedev) for more than 20 years straight now, there IS no "old guard" of state apparatchiks.

Prigozhin does have troops, yes. But, how many of Wagner will really follow him to Moscow, unless he promises the spoils of a Genghis Khan type sacking of the city? And, Chechnya leader Ramzan Kadarov has already come out against him.

The background to this is near the bottom of the story linked up top. The Kremlin wanted Wagner troops to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry by July 1. This was clearly an attempt to put Prigozhin's troops on a tighter contract by having their final individual loyalty stated as being to the Russian state, not Prigozhin.

The question next is: Why didn't Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, or Putin himself of course, anticipate such an action? (I'm assuming that Prigozhin is lying about Russian uniformed military attacking Wagner troops on orders of Gerasimov, as his excuse for doing this.) And, why didn't one of these three have a polonium-210 pellet ready to be shot into Prigozhin's ass, a la Alexander Litvinenko?

The fact that nobody beneath Putin's level, especially and namely Shoigu and Gerasimov, was ready for this despite Prigozhin's repeated mockings of them over war-related issues even before this contracts issue, says that part of what Prigozhin has said about Russian strategic war conduct is certainly true. The fact that Putin himself wasn't more prepared may give fuel to the "he has cancer" claims or something. It is some sort of asleep at the switch issue, though.

As for likelihood of success? No more than the 1991 coup, IMO.

==

Per the update in italics, will either, or both, of Shoigu and Gerasimov get sacked as part of the deal Lukashenko negotiated? Possibly. Will Putin insert a minder into Wagner, beyond any minders he had there already? But of course, but how quiet, and how effective, can that person be? And per above, will that minder have a Po-210 pellet gun?

==

As for affecting the war? Of course it will will not, per the update above. Losing 25,000 troops from the front line, plus state troops to try to corral the Wagner units, for any length of time, will would weaken Russia's defense in depth, but it didn't happen. It will would, and maybe still will, only increase Putin's longer-term desperation. How much might it affect home-front morale? Well, Russian internet service providers, likely under state orders, are throttling access to Google News et al.

As for Prigozhin's claims leading up to this, about what was happening, and not happening, in Donetsk and Luhansk 2014-2022? More self-serving bullshit that, before he spouted these Westernized claims, had been refuted and proven untrue by Westerners, ex-Russians and ex-Ukrainians left, center and right.

And so, to finish, Prigozhin gets his own mocking:

==

In another piece, Helmer makes reference to the March 2022 Istanbul talks. Here's anon-paywalled description, albeit from a highly pro-Ukraine site. TLDR?

  • Russia withdraws to Donbas and Crimea, and official peace AFTER that
  • No NATO membership for Ukraine, but other security guarantees;
  • Ukraine, as part of offering this, insisted it should still get a NATO Article 5 guarantee;
  • No foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, period;
  • EU membership greenlighted;
  • Ukraine and Russia start negotiations on Crimea over a potential 15-year period;
  • Referendums in Ukraine and guarantor states.

My thoughts?

First one is a non-starter from Putin's POV. Crimea negotiations not highly likely to do anything.

Labels: , , ,
at Saturday, June 24, 2023 Posted by Gadfly

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)