Michael Wilbon says start with the financials.
Maybe Prince Albert would take "just" eight years on a contract if you paid him $35M a year. I'll bet $33M, if you want to start a tad lower, might do it. 8/$260 would be $32.5 per year.
He says the Cubs can easily go that high:
And the Cubs, not coincidentally, are poised to get out from under contractual obligations to Kosuke Fukodome, Carlos Silva, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, which would amount to more than $45 million. Pena, the ex-Ray, signed a $10 million free-agent deal to play first base this season; but conveniently enough, his contract is for 2011 only.He adds that Wrigley has fallen to "only" 92 percent capacity in the last couple of years. Add up 250K fans spending, if only $20 a person, and a full Wrigley recoups back $5M of the spending on Pujols.
As for why Pujols would leave St. Louis, Wilbon has it right. The lowball offer is a measuring stick, a cojones-size issue.
(I)f the Cardinals insist on offering something closer to $21 million a year than $30 million, chances are they've got no realistic shot at keeping Pujols, who isn't about to take less money than fellow first basemen Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera. If that continues to be the Cardinals' negotiating tack, they might as well wave goodbye even before the five-day exclusive negotiating period starts this fall.As for why he'd go to Chicago? Wilbon mentions, for lack of a better word,the "savior" factor. If the Cubbies win the World Series, even once, Albert Pujols is the god of Waveland Avenue.
Wilbon also adds the stats angle — the Friendly Confines didn't get its name from pitchers.
I'll add in one thing he doesn't — the revenge factor. L.A. and San Francisco don't offer that to the same degree in the regular season. The Yankees, Red Sox or Angels could only offer that in a postseason matchup. And, frankly, that's the angle that scares me.
Two other ESPN staffers argue the wisdom of signing him on a pro-con page. Jon Greenberg does have the best counterpoint to Wilbon —if Pujols isn't the "savior," the fans never totally embrace him.
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