Pujols — worth 10 years, $300M

I have blogged before that St. Louis Cardinals CEO Bill DeWitt can afford to pay Albert Pujols a 10-year, $300-million contract even with Redbird fan loyalty, should that loyalty drop from 3.2 million fans a year to 2.4 million without No. 5 at first base.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Jeff Gordon, in analyzing financial ramifications, said recently that Cardinal CEO DeWitt can financially afford to let Pujols walk, mentioning the team has drawn at least 2.4 million a year for 15 years straight.

Let's say it falls back to 2.4 million instead of 3.2 million, Joe. 800K fans at about $20 a ticket, plus an average of $5 of auxiliary spending on concessions, etc.? (And, those are all surely lowball numbers right there.)

That's $20 million a year. And, Pujols wants just $15 million a year more than he's making now. Add in the possibility of fewer postseason appearances, etc. Even if we factor out business taxes, etc., Joe, the Cards might just lose money by not meeting Pujols' terms.

Now, the Cards reportedly are worried about Pujols tailing off near the end of a long contract, pointing out current Yankees Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, he whom Pujols would supposedly like to surpass in the contract department, as prime examples.

But, there's exceptions to how fast a star ages, as ESPN's Jayson Stark notes at the end of his very good column on the situation:

The Cardinals will simply be making a decision that it's not sound business to keep paying gigundous dollars to any player -- even one as great as Albert -- until age 40 or 41 or 42. And you know what? It's hard to blame them. Except I couldn't help but notice something Tuesday:

Guess which Cardinal hit .330 at age 41 -- and was still hitting third in the lineup at age 42?

Yep. Right you are. That would be Stan Musial. Who else?

Besides, even if he doesn't project out totally well for all 10 years, I think a .285/.365/.550/.915 line isn't at all unrealistic for Pujols at 41. Allowing for 10 years of salary inflation, some team will probably pay $20 million a year straight up for that 10 years from now, no "icon of a city" value attached.

Add in $5-$10M for that, and he's arguably worth $30M even in year 10.

You know how I can say that? Those numbers are roughly what Jayson Werth did last year, and he's now making $20M himself. So, it's just stupid for the team to not make this deal.

With him, Matt Holliday and Adam Wainwright surely around for at least five years, and probably Yadier Molina, DeWitt and John Mozeliak would be sure to land a great manager to replace Tony La Russa, too. (And, we can only hope that happens sooner rather than later, perhaps.)

And, adding one thing:

Yahoo's Jeff Passan notes that, ultimately, Pujols had to answer to one person over his contract negotiations — himself. And that's why, Passan says, the current situation is the right decision for him.

Yahoo's Jeff Passan notes that, ultimately, Albert Pujols had to answer to one person over his contract negotiations — himself. And that's why, Passan says, the current situation is the right decision for him.

Cardinal fans — you got Matt Holliday because the A's didn't think they could resign him. And, the Cards management did. Even if negotiating against itself more than anything.

And, he's right about Pujols being in control. That said, DeWitt had more control, like a year ago.

Passan's right about one other thing, too. In another column, he notes Tony La Russa is baseball's great enabler. Nailed that one.