Who kidnapped Rod Dreher and replaced his brain???

Mr. “Crunchy Con” actually made sense yesterday. And, for more than one line of text!

The notion that (food shartages aren’t) going to happen here is an example of a logical fallacy that Mr. Taleb calls confirmation bias. It's the same mistake made by the turkey that wakes up the day before Thanksgiving convinced that this day is bound to be just as terrific as the last thousand, based on his own experience.

And then there’s the narrative fallacy, which depends on the human weakness for imposing patterns on data. Because we’re hardwired to interpret facts in terms of a story, Mr. Taleb explains, we erroneously exclude information that doesn't fit our preferred narrative. It was easy for Americans to believe erroneously that the Iraqis would welcome U.S. invaders as liberators because that conclusion fits the story we like to tell ourselves about human nature and progress.

Both fallacies work to keep us from taking seriously the possibility that the country could face something as seemingly absurd as food shortages. We are psychologically invested in the idea that America is insulated from history and that our wealth, creativity and technological expertise will keep the barbarians, figuratively speaking, at bay.

Which is true – until it isn’t. At which point we will, in retrospect, look back at all the signs that pointed to the Black Swan event, as if its advent had been obvious all along.

First, I never thought I would read Dreher throw American exceptionalism explicitly under the bus.

Second, parallel to that, I never thought Dreher would honestly talk about an “era of limitations.”

Third, I sure as hell never thought Dreher would actually approvingly cite a commonplace of evolutionary psychology.

That said, the column is very interesting. Dreher kicks it off by noting Wall Street Journal what investment writer Brett Arends thinks Americans should seriously consider stockpiling food.

Of course, as I blogged Friday, Jim Jubak thinks that’s just scarcity thinking. With rice, other people claim it’s a government-rigged market in Southeast Asia that’s part of the problem. Nonetheless, for a WSJ guy to even suggest that is highly interesting.

Anyway, I’m sure Dreher will be back to his usually con, with a side of crunchy, in a few days.