“It’s not that the genie is out of the bottle — it’s that 100 genies are out of the bottle,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Normally known for optimistic forecasts of lowering oil prices, Mr. Yergin’s firm now says the price could rise to $150 a barrel this year.
The world's diminished spare production capacity remains the strongest single catalyst for high prices, Mr. Yergin says. The world’s safety cushion — the amount of readily available oil that could be pumped in a moment of crisis — is now around two million barrels a day, according to most estimates. That’s just 2.3 percent of daily demand, and nearly all of the safety cushion is in one country, Saudi Arabia. Everyone else is pretty much pumping all they can, which makes the world vulnerable to political or other shocks.
Ready for gas to hit $4.50, maybe $5 a gallon? Food to go up another 5-10 percent? Here it comes.
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