NASA off by factor of 100 in asteroid worry

From the same folks who had measurements that sunk a failed Mars rover in inches instead of metric units, we now have a German schoolboy correcting our space agency’s miscalculation of the chances of Earth’s collision with a particular asteroid.

NASA had said the chances were 1 in 45,000.

Nico Marquardt says they’re a much more scary 1 in 450.

Oops.

Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

He’s not even the equivalent of an American high-schooler yet; Marquardt is 13.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029. …

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometers a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometers above earth — and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometers.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and the young genius note that this would produce a mass of iron and iridium about 1,000 feet wide. It would crash into the Atlantic Ocean and cause a major tsunami. It would also cause short-term global cooling from a thick dust cloud.