SocraticGadfly: Buckle your seatbelt for a decade of fun

April 14, 2008

Buckle your seatbelt for a decade of fun

That’s the word from JPMorgan analysts, who say the current U.S. financial-sector problems will take a decade to shake out.
“We had the NASDAQ, we had LTCM, we had the various forms of emerging-market crises in the ’90s, we had the real estate crisis of 20 years ago: In most of these the direct impact on the behavior of the parties involved lasted more than 10 years,” Jan Loeys told Reuter. “It looks like it takes a generation for the memory to fade and for the same mistakes to be made again.”

Loeys expects financial sector regulation to increase. Obviously, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson disagrees with that need.

The question is, will the next president change that mindset, and how much? Also, assuming the European Union implements some real reform, will we find out in the next decade who’s the dog and who’s the tail on the world economy?

Meanwhile, Wachovica dropped $400 mil in the first quarter and the head of major reinsurer Gen Re, Joseph Brandon, resigned, reportedly under federal pressure.

This baby is not close to being over yet.

No comments: