Sayonara, Medical Center at Lancaster

The closing of the Dallas suburb’s hospital, more than 20 years after it opened, and just two years after corporate ownership of the for-profit facility, in conjunction with Lancaster civic leaders, talked about forming a medical development district around the hospital, is a body blow indeed.

As for redevelopment, a hospital building isn’t readily used for a lot of other things. Besides, you’ve got a half-vacant plaza, a fully-vacant plaza (except for a storefront church) and a vacant grocery store, all rattling around in the city.

Leaders are pinning their hopes to two things: Development at Houston School Road/I-20 related to the growth of the University of North Texas-Dallas, located just across the Dallas city limits, and the Dallas Logistics Hub, in Lancaster, Dallas, Wilmer and Hutchins, estimated to value $5.4 billion at 30-year buildout.

But, hopes for both of those, even if they come to fruition, will be many years in the making.

And, there’s that IF.

First, UNT-D spinoffs.

Will enrollment grow as fast as its top backer, state Sen. Royce West, predicts? Probably not, and definitely not unless Royce can get 15 fellow senators and the majority of the state House to re-regulate tuition rates at state universities. Otherwise, who’s going to afford UNT-D in another decade?

The Logistics Hub? With oil prices now having made a beachhold at $100/bbl and more likely to head further north than south, such transportation centers may be white elephants.

More and more American-incorporated manufacturers will find diminishing profit margins from made in China items, especially items with subassembly here and final assembly there. Also, just in time delivery is going to get m ore overhead.

Result? Less need for massive warehouses covering 6,000 acres. That’s not to mention the possible glut we are already developing, from Fort Worth’s Alliance being only 40 percent filled, to three Dallas Logistics Hub-type products (albeit on much smaller scales) being built in the same area, two in Dallas just north of DeSoto and one other one in Lancaster.

So, Lancaster civic leaders, hold on to hope, but don’t have a runaway elopement with it.