What does the AfD/BSW surge mean in Germany?

The Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD, won German state elections in Thuringia state and came in second in Saxony. Of additional note, the left's Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) broke 15 percent in Thurungia and hit 11 percent in Saxony.

Maybe nobody will coalition with the AfD. But, that drives the BSW's price higher yet.

For both parties, versus the three-party coalition in Berlin — Social Democrats, Free Democrats and Greens — and also versus the currently outside Christian Democrats, discontent over the Ukraine war, and to some extent, especially with the AfD, discontent over Gaza, too, is the driver. Add in that, in many sectors of traditional heavy industry, Germany stands clueless before China and the problem grows. (Volkswagen said just days ago that it might do the previously unthinkable and close at least one plant. It's way behind the curve on electric cars.)

The next national election in Germany is just a year away. I can't see Chancellor Olaf Scholz staying in power. Worse? A convoluted four-party coalition, of the three in power plus Christian Democrats, is HIGHLY unlikely. The CDU/CSU has never come close to coalitioning with Greens before.

If they got enough numbers, AfD plus BSW, and possibly a resurgent Linkspartei, could at a minimum block any three-party coalition.

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Update: Part of what it means is the federal government implementing strict border controls for the next six months. Gee, that gets you at least close to the next federal election, doesn't it?