New Hampshire hot take: The nomination seems to be Bernie's to lose

Status Quo Joe Biden didn't even stick around the Granite State, having fled for South Carolina Tuesday afternoon.

Michael Bennet (were you ever really in?) and Andrew Yang (what sort of circle jerk will the Yang Gang now do) both dropped out.

But those aren't the biggest takeaways.

That is that Warren got clobbered. NO other word for it.

That said, as I just said on Twitter? The fact that she only focused compliments on Klobuchar confirms that her baseline is #StillWithering, not pergressuvism. Between this and the post-debate stage dustup after the pre-Iowa debate, Bernie shouldn't expect any endorsement from her after she drops.

Looking ahead to the upcoming Democratic calendar?

Going to the Nevada caucuses Feb. 22, and being prepared in advance for any attempts to repeat 2016 bullshit by John Ralston or Delores Huerta, he should be the frontrunner. His goal should be to knock out Warren. That's not likely, but, at the least, if he can drive another "unviable" into her image, she'll start leaking more water. She's thin on the ground and had a staff blowout there recently. Daily Beast has the details of her campaign on the ropes there.

A win there, and then Down South.

A solid second for Sanders in South Carolina Feb. 29, doubling his 2016 black vote there and holding Biden below 40 percent overall, would be big.

So, from there, it's Bernie, Bootblack Buttigieg and Minnesota Nice Klobuchar. No matter what you or I think on gunz, a lot of white Dems in Texas and elsewhere Southish aren't going to like Bloomberg's stance. And a lot of black Democrats down in these parts aren't going to like his, to paraphrase, "we police and arrest black people because that's where the crime is" stance exposed by Benjamin Dixon.



Sanders has already gone after Buttigieg on the billionaires angle. Surrogates need to play up South Bend racism in races down south. After Biden drops, black delegates will need wooing and courting, as well as warnings about others. But, some elbows will need to be thrown outside the "billionaires" issue.

Minnesota Nice might be a tougher take. And, one sign of caution coming out of New Hampshire? Bernie had the biggest gender gap, at least in exit polls, per CNN. That said, gender gaps cut both ways. Looking the other direction, Minnesota Nice had the biggest gap.

That then said, note that I said "seems to be" in the header. In a two-person race in 2016, Bernie dunked on Hillary. This year, if it were just him and Bootblack, it would be about 53-47. And, just like this year, in 2016, Sanders had a functional tie/eked-out-win in Iowa, then won New Hampshire.

It really boils down to how much establishment support Klobuchar can garner with the upset in New Hampshire and thereafter, assuming Status Quo Joe exits stage left and Mayor Monopoly never catches on.