Manny is at almost 6 WAR per year. The only slight eyebrow raisers are a subpar for him 2017 and bREF ranking him negatively on defense in his Orioles first half of 2018.
If a WAR is worth $7M, and you knock him down to "just" 5 WAR a year, Machado is in today's baseball world easily worth $35M/year for 8 years, or more. In short, he's worth the Bryce Harper contract that Scott Boras is peddling for Harper.
Well, the only eyebrow raisers on the talent side. His hustle-related comments and other attitude perceptions — whether reality-based or not — are surely holding his contract value down.
Ten days or so ago, MLB Trade Rumors said the White Sox offer was 7/$175 for Machado. A day later, though, his agent Lozano said that report is totally untrue. Maybe so, maybe not. We know Dan Lozano fell short of his agent grand slam hopes with Albert Pujols, and occasionally manipulated the media in his chase of attempting to pass Alex Rodriguez for biggest contract ever.
So, for reality sake, let's say that offer is true.
(This ignores the fact that the Padres, not an original mystery team from what we know, are definitely now NOT a mystery team, though no $$$ are listed in that report.)
I say the Cards should offer, say, 6/$170 and some other creative tools to land Machado.
Here's how the contract would split, roughly.
$25-$26-$27-$28-$31-$33 on annual pay, or similar.
The creative part? Opt-outs after both year 2 and year 4. In exchange, the Cards have a, say, $15 million team option on buying out year 6 if things suck that much. Boras client Yusei Kikuchi got such a type of deal with both player opt-outs and a team option.
If the White Sox are offering more than the rumored 7/175, I'm Ok with going to $175 or so on six years, especially if back-weighted.
However, given that there are multiple "mystery teams out there and Machado has talked to at least one of them, and reportedly has a higher offer available, if not more than one.
In that case, we're more fully where I said last week — sign Dallas Keuchel or otherwise upgrade the rotation.
Anyway, back to this hypothetical.
Where's he play, you ask?
Shortstop.
He has to accept he is not replacing Matt Carpenter at third. Cards fans who claim that Carp's statement about being "comfortable" in the outfield after 24 career MLB games there can STFU.
Manny goes to short. Carp stays at third, at least for 2019. Paul DeJong is the super-sub who learns 3B for his MLB future; he's already played 2B and knows that well enough. He spot starts at short, plays 2B and 3B to spell Carp and Kolten Wong against lefties. He's a cheaper Jedd Gyorko, who should be moved anyway if possible.
Long-term future? If Paul Goldschmidt is not re-signed, then Carp can move back to first. If he IS re-signed, then you decide to either trade Carp, use the buyout on his 2020 year, or grimace and move him to left for a year if Marcell Ozuna walks.
Meanwhile, feel free to vote in the Harper sign-date poll at upper right.
1 comment:
You know I like that idea of them signing Machado. I didn't at first but the prospect is interesting. I doubt it will happen and hey thanks I appreciate you putting me on your blog list. As always, good stuff here.
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