Moody’s gives it a 70 percent likelihood. The agency also gives 25 percent odds of a bailout, no “soft-landing” bankruptcy involved, and a 5 percent chance of a hard bankruptcy not part of a bailout. (Of course, we know how accurate Moody’s analysis has been the last five years. Then again, GM Is not a tranched CDO.)
Besides, given that Bush broached the bankruptcy option yesterday, even a Moody’s on the take could make this prediction.
Anyway, this is definitely a good news, bad news situation.
The good news is that it reduces the likelihood of pounding government sand down a rathole.
The bad news, as I blogged yesterday, is that a bankruptcy filing, especially one supported by Shrub, could be a back-door way to get Southern senators’ anti-labor strategy on the table through the usual “wage concessions.”
As I said earlier, ask airline pilots and flight attendants from most non-Southwest airline companies about that.
Bad news part 2 is also part of this. The General had already announced it is delaying building the engine-making factory for the hybrid-drive Chevy Volt. No word on how long of a delay is planned.
You can bet whatever delay GM planned earlier is going to get even longer. So much for the $25 bil in clean car loans from Congress, eh?
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