Is Novak right on Obama?

Bob Novak delves into
the basic questions, such as, why can’t Obama crack 50 percent?

That’s especially a hot-topic question when Novak himself has no trouble reading the obituary of John McCain:

Not even Bob Dole's dismal candidacy in 1996 generated less enthusiasm in GOP ranks than McCain's current effort. In winning the nomination this year, when he had been counted out after the disintegration of his campaign structure, McCain showed more fortitude than skill. He was blessed by a weak field of Republican competitors, who eliminated each other and left McCain as the last man standing.

Is it the “Bradley/Wilder effect,” or similar? Novak hints so:

Obama’s difficulty in reaching the 50 percent mark reflects an overwhelmingly white undecided vote of 10 to 15 percent.

Say what you will about Novak’s political stances, or his hairsplitting personal part in the Plame affair, but he usually knows what the hell he’s talking about in terms of political analysis.

Obama’s own campaign staff can “smile, smile, smile” all they want, but on the inside, they have to be “worried, worried, worried.”

In short, I agree with Novak. I don’t know what’s causing the problem, but I know there’s a problem.