Throw your Iraq Surge success out the window

Moqtada al-Sadr has made the clearest noises yet about ending his six-month old cease fire.

You can just see the Tar Baby routine coming after this. Petraeus argues, and Gates backs him, that this means we can’t withdraw any more troops. Al-Sadr, or more and more of his followers, at least, argue to not only end the cease fire, but take action. We insist on attacking “rogue elements” of the Mahdi Army under the pretext they’re backed by Iran, when Tehran has shifted its bets to Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council.