January 05, 2013

#Cooperstown candidacies: My summation of baseball Hall of Fame 2013 odds, merits

My general questions about potential baseball Hall of Fame candidates are along these lines:

1. Should he get in this year? 2. Should he get in at all? 3. Will he get in this year? 4. Will he get in at all? Following are players, linked to Baseball-Reference pages, then linked to my blog observations. 

Jack Morris: He's not close to deserving. No, No, probably not and maybe next year or via veterans vote.

Dale Murphy. Nice guy, but just no. No to all four questions.

Jeff Bagwell: Why, why is he still waiting? He shouldn't be. Yes, yes, maybe, and yes.

Lee Smith: Closers are generally overrated, including Lee. No, no, no, probably not.

Alan Trammell: Let's get him out from Ripken's shadow and get him in. Yes, yes, no, possibly.

Craig Biggio: Non-roiding "message man" has good shot this year. Yes, yes, probably, yes.

Tim Raines: Can he step out from Rickey Henderson's shadow? Yes, yes, probably no, and very  probably yes.

Kenny Lofton: Should a "junior Tim Raines" be in? No, lean no for now, no, probably not.

Edgar Martinez: Sorry, but he didn't do enough for me as a DH. No, no, no, probably.

Larry Walker: Sorry, fellow Cards fans, but injuries and what I see as a real Coors Field effect say no. No, no, no, probably not.

Fred McGriff: The Crime Dog falls short, and a fair degree, in my book. No, he shouldn't get in this year, or future years. And, he won't, on either.

Curt Schilling: He had an impressive peak, but, injuries aside, why was that peak so late? And are his counting stats too low? His sabermetric stats parallel Bagwell, but ... Kind of lean no on No. 1, I am pretty sure yes on No. 2, no, yes.

Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, et al. Here's my thoughts on likely roiders. Especially re the first two, no, no until individuals, union and Selig (and a few older writers) all apologize, no, and yes. 

And, yes, I know the Hall has morals problems already. I know that players used greenies back in the golden days of baseball. Etc., etc. I have written about that here; shorter thoughts are that this is about playing skills boosts and that I don't believe 1960s amphetamines delivered like that.

Mike Piazza: Besides "bacne," is catcher durability the biggest PEDs allegation shadow for him? See above on Clemens/Bonds.

If I had an actual vote this year, then, it would be Bagwell, Biggio, Raines, Trammell and maybe Schilling.

Your thoughts? Please vote in the poll!  

And, how will my predictions, and desires, square with BBWAA writers? Those who have released their votes to the public, as of last week, may be giving hope to Biggio and Bagwell, and also to me on wanting to keep Morris out.

And, why can't writers get one anti-vote, to vote one person OUT of the Hall? 

I am a "small Hall" guy. Contra Morris and Murphy fans who point to, say, Early Wynn or Jim Rice, respectively, there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.

And, until the BBWAA, the Hall of Fame itself, and, per my comments above, individual players facing allegations, the players union, and Bud Selig and owners all jointly get honest about roiding, voters are going to face a growing backlog of talented players in years ahead.

Oh, and the Veterans Committee will consider, among others, Tony La Russa and Joe Torre as managers.

Soon, I'll have an initial preview post about that 2014 ballot ... including those two managers.

Let's just say that, although I'm a St. Louis Cardinals fan, TLR managed, pre-St. Louis, the two most notorious early roiders in baseball. And, yes, Tony the Pony, you've got a law degree, but both of them have fessed up. No "alleged" needed.

Stay tuned.