January 04, 2013

Curt Schilling — will injuries, etc. derail HOF pitch?

Curt Schilling is a puzzler indeed.

Good ERA+ and WHIP; his 127 and 1.137 are well above, and below, respectively, my HOF cutoffs of 110 and 1.25. WAR of 76.9 is very good. WAA of 54.0 is great. Bloody sock aside, a great postseason pitcher.

Problem is counting stats — "just" 216 wins in a 20-year career. 

And, another problem — after two semi-good early-career seasons with the Phillies, he then has a three-year valley. 

But, that's not the worst. He then has a couple of bleah years until, all of a sudden, he looks like a flash in the pan, until he hits the ripe old age of 34, and has his peak in three of the next four years.

Should we make allowance for his injuries and consider him a late-blooming junior Pedro Martinez?

Schilling's protested long and loud about roiding in baseball. What if his late peak got some enhancement? Maybe he doth protest too much, and maybe he's legalistic in it by just having used HGH?

Schilling's got the numbers, but, as far as I can tell, there's been little written about that late-career peak of his.

My three rhetorical questions on HOF candidates are:
1. Should he be in?

2. Will and/or should he get in this year?
3. Will he eventually get in?

With Schilling, let's go in semi-reverse order.

First, he will eventually get in. No doubt.

Will he get in this year? Probably not.

Should he get in this year? Probably not, and that's even without my "wondering."

The "should he be in," in general? I can't say yes or no until some investigative sports writers with far more connections than me do some digging. Schilling being technical by using HGH only, but enthusiastically and quite scientifically would not surprise me at all.

Oh, and please vote in my poll! (I'll consider Schilling under other non-roiders for this poll.) 

A little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —

I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.

And, click the  "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts.


Mystify said...

Don't forget his 3116 strikeouts, which hits another traditional milestone for Hall induction (although Blyleven had more than that and got in by the skin of his teeth).

Gadfly said...

Good point. That said, Blyleven's era, along with Ryan's to a fair degree, was an older, less free-swinging era. Hell, even with a lower mound, Koufax might have struck out 400 a year today.