First, you may ask why I call Houston Astros great Craig Biggio a "message" man?
Simple.
The Astros' long-term second baseman (and sometime outfielder and career-starting catcher) is as squeaky clean as Dale Murphy, including on the steroid-using issue, and with better stats on the sabermetric side and much better on the counting side.
First, the counting stats.
Any regular baseball fan knows about his 3,060 hits. Add in his career 668 doubles, fifth-best all time. Toss in a career 291 HRs, arguably pretty decent production from largely a second baseman.
Add in a few Gold Gloves in his career.
Now, top it with the fact that he's never been rumored to be a roider.
Result?
On the predictions side, I say he gets in this year.
Older baseball writers still like those counting stats, and the ones that want to send a message to Bonds, Clemens and others have their perfect "vehicle."
So, I've answered "yes" to two of my three rhetorical questions about Hall candidates — 1. He will get in and 2. Not just "eventually" but this year.
But, I have three such questions, and the third is — should he be in there?
And, counting stats aside, sabermetrics has a bit more caution.
Let's look at my basic go-to stat on position players, first: OPS+.
Biggio has a surprisingly low 112. My cutoff for HOFers is 110. Of course, he was compiling his OPS+ in the height of the steroid era, so maybe he deserves a bit of slack.
Behind this? His OPS was only .796. And, while he walked a decent amount, he struck out a lot for a guy with medium to medium-high power, but not huge power.
Second is Wins Above Average, where he's only at 29.1.
I'm still developing a bit of "feel" for WAA and what a HOF cutoff should be. But my tentative answer is 30, and Biggio falls just short. Related to that, his WAR of 62.1, while good, is not outstanding.
Again, maybe we cut him a bit of slack over roiding competition, but how much?
He does rank a solid +50 on runs by positional scarcity.
So, I would say he should be in there. As for "this year" vs. "eventually," I will say that he probably, pretty solidly, should be in there this year. And, I'm in general a "small Hall" guy, not like the "fluffers" named Jim Caple, David Schoenfield, etc. at ESPN, and a few others. (ESPN is far and away the most egregious, though.)
That said, how Biggio does will probably be a baseline for Jeff Kent and his chances, as the two are fairly similar.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
And, click the "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts.
January 02, 2013
Lee Smith for Hall? - closers are overrated; sorry #stlcards fans
As I do my most extensive set of posts yet on potential Major League Baseball Hall of Fame candidates, it's time for a look at Lee Smith.
First, for those who haven't read other baseball-related posts of mine, I'm a definite Cardinals fan.
Second, I saw Big Lee set what was then the National League single-season saves record in 1991. And, with those being among Montreal Expos "home" games moved on the road because of falling Olympic Stadium concrete, I got box seats less than 30 rows from the Cardinal bullpen on the first-base line.
So, I can say Lee Smith is physically imposing.
I can also look at his HOF stats and say that he's not imposing career-wise. As is the case with most closers, ESPN-type overrating aside.
Career WAR of just 27.9 and WAA of 13.8 rule him out right there. So, too does the fact that he can't meet one of my two baseline hurdles. His WHIP of 1.256 is technically above my 1.25 cutoff for pitchers.
Now, he doesn't quite have the momentum of a Jack Morris, but he does have a couple more years of eligibility left. Hopefully, we won't need quite so much an anti-Lee campaign. But, he doesn't belong there.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
And, click the "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts.
First, for those who haven't read other baseball-related posts of mine, I'm a definite Cardinals fan.
Second, I saw Big Lee set what was then the National League single-season saves record in 1991. And, with those being among Montreal Expos "home" games moved on the road because of falling Olympic Stadium concrete, I got box seats less than 30 rows from the Cardinal bullpen on the first-base line.
So, I can say Lee Smith is physically imposing.
I can also look at his HOF stats and say that he's not imposing career-wise. As is the case with most closers, ESPN-type overrating aside.
Career WAR of just 27.9 and WAA of 13.8 rule him out right there. So, too does the fact that he can't meet one of my two baseline hurdles. His WHIP of 1.256 is technically above my 1.25 cutoff for pitchers.
Now, he doesn't quite have the momentum of a Jack Morris, but he does have a couple more years of eligibility left. Hopefully, we won't need quite so much an anti-Lee campaign. But, he doesn't belong there.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
And, click the "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts.
January 01, 2013
Fred McGriff - will Crime Dog take a bite at the Hall of Fame?
There's plenty of good candidates, steroid users aside, on this year's Hall of Fame ballot.
Fred McGriff will ot jump past Jeff Bagwell or Tim Raines, whether or not they or Craig Biggio get to 75 percent or not.
Now, what about his eventual chances?
On the plus side, a career OPS+ of 136 is good, solid. More than 1,500 RBIs looks good, too.
But, other sabermetrics undercut him. His oWAR is only a touch above 50, low for a 1B. His WAA is even worse, respectively, less than 20. And his dWAR is horrible. So, his runs by positional scarcity is way in the negative.
So, he's not really deserving.
Plus, as one of those players who played in several different cities in his career, he'll not have a single loyal core of BBWAA writers to support his case. That's part of why Blyleven took so long to get in, and McGriff isn't a big-name broadcaster, unlike Bert.
So, here's the trio:
1. He shouldn't be in the HOF;
2. He definitely won't be this year;
3. He probably won't ever be.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
Fred McGriff will ot jump past Jeff Bagwell or Tim Raines, whether or not they or Craig Biggio get to 75 percent or not.
Now, what about his eventual chances?
On the plus side, a career OPS+ of 136 is good, solid. More than 1,500 RBIs looks good, too.
But, other sabermetrics undercut him. His oWAR is only a touch above 50, low for a 1B. His WAA is even worse, respectively, less than 20. And his dWAR is horrible. So, his runs by positional scarcity is way in the negative.
So, he's not really deserving.
Plus, as one of those players who played in several different cities in his career, he'll not have a single loyal core of BBWAA writers to support his case. That's part of why Blyleven took so long to get in, and McGriff isn't a big-name broadcaster, unlike Bert.
So, here's the trio:
1. He shouldn't be in the HOF;
2. He definitely won't be this year;
3. He probably won't ever be.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
December 31, 2012
Jon Chait STOPS fellating Obama, becomes bigger hack
Exactly two months ago, political insider Jonathan Chait wrote a big steaming pile of blather with this headline: "The Case for Obama: Why He Is a Great President. Yes, Great."
It included such dreck as this:
Says who?
Not just me, but ... Jon Chait!
Exactly two months later, he writes, with this headline: "Why is Obama Caving on Taxes?" and proceeds to excoriate Dear Leader up one side and down the other.
That includes this closing paragraph:
Well, the second Chait is right. But, refusing to let even 10 percent of that thought into a political puff piece two months ago (Note: Obama's biggest achievement, allegedly, Obamacare, actually is Nancy Pelosi's doing) shows just how much a hack he is.
But, really, he's a representative of a type. In days ahead (whether the House approves the "fiscal slope" deal or not) you'll see others like Chait, neoliberal but not quite as conservative as Dear Leader, and still clueless as to how bad an executive leader he is, similarly burn rubber and strip clutches at the strenuousness of their change-of-direction rethinking about O'Bummer.
I'll bet we soon smell similar burned-out clutches from Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo, Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos, Steven Benen at Washington Monthly, and Kevin Drum at Mother Jones, among others.
In order of hackery, Kos is right there with Chait, as is Benen, a consistent Democratic Party fluffer. Marshall at times ranks higher on the snootiness level, though.
And, even IF the House GOP approves this ... a definite if ... this is only a two-month Band-Aid. Why? The "great" Dear Leader didn't get a debt ceiling long-term fix as part of the deal.
In any case, let's see exactly sort of Ricky Ricardo "splaining" they do.
It included such dreck as this:
Obama can boast a record of accomplishment that bests any president since Roosevelt, and has fewer demerits on his record than any of them, including Roosevelt.And dreck that is indeed.
Says who?
Not just me, but ... Jon Chait!
Exactly two months later, he writes, with this headline: "Why is Obama Caving on Taxes?" and proceeds to excoriate Dear Leader up one side and down the other.
That includes this closing paragraph:
Obama may think his conciliatory approach has helped avoid economic chaos. Instead, he is courting it.That's a Loooong ways away from "great," isn't it?
Well, the second Chait is right. But, refusing to let even 10 percent of that thought into a political puff piece two months ago (Note: Obama's biggest achievement, allegedly, Obamacare, actually is Nancy Pelosi's doing) shows just how much a hack he is.
But, really, he's a representative of a type. In days ahead (whether the House approves the "fiscal slope" deal or not) you'll see others like Chait, neoliberal but not quite as conservative as Dear Leader, and still clueless as to how bad an executive leader he is, similarly burn rubber and strip clutches at the strenuousness of their change-of-direction rethinking about O'Bummer.
I'll bet we soon smell similar burned-out clutches from Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo, Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos, Steven Benen at Washington Monthly, and Kevin Drum at Mother Jones, among others.
In order of hackery, Kos is right there with Chait, as is Benen, a consistent Democratic Party fluffer. Marshall at times ranks higher on the snootiness level, though.
And, even IF the House GOP approves this ... a definite if ... this is only a two-month Band-Aid. Why? The "great" Dear Leader didn't get a debt ceiling long-term fix as part of the deal.
In any case, let's see exactly sort of Ricky Ricardo "splaining" they do.
My 2013 predictions in news, culture, etc.
Note any international readers: These are largely US-based, but still may have a bit of international play.
1. The so-called "fiscal cliff" will finally get a deal on ... wait for it ... Jan. 7. Stock market will continue to sag, but not totally tank until that date, therefore undercutting the Pete Petersons of the world. Both Republicans and Democrats will do some can-kicking, postponing many details for discussion — until after the 2014 elections. GOP will "bite" on what was originally the offer by President Barack Obama, aka Dear Leader, for "chained CPI" on Social Security, and pressure Senate Democrats to "lump it."
And, yes, I know, there's claims that a "deal" is just around the corner, as of 7 p.m. Eastern time Dec. 31. Read a story like this, though, and you get a Swiss cheese of caveat holes.
2. Speaking of that, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will make only minor changes to filibuster rules.
3. President Obama will offer only relatively minor changes in whatever gun control legislation he sends to Congress, and will make the announcement of such legislation itself relatively mild. (As in sending it to Congress after 5 p.m. on a Friday.)
4. Angela Merkel's coalition, the unwieldy one, will fall apart in Germany sometime this year over a mix of resentment toward the eurozone's south, the Free Democrats' stance on nuclear power, and a general weariness.
5. John Kerry will become US Secretary of State. Rep. Edward Markey will win the special election to replace him in the Senate.
6. Chuck Hagel will ultimately withdraw his name from Secretary of Defense consideration after lack of support from Obama. At this point, I won't even venture a guess over who's next on Obama's list.
7. India's rape-murder tragedy will be the last straw for its current government ad will force parliamentary elections some time in 2013. The Congress party will suffer disastrous losses. The new BJP government will get more aggressive against both native Maoists and Pakistan. The BJP will not improve the lives of Indian women, though.
8. Climate change legislation will not even get considered by the US. But, the European Union will hold firm on its airline carbon taxes.
9. The Texas Legislature's new budget will not only be more hardcore antiabortion, it will tighten the belt on health care for the poor and have no major new money for schools. The fact that Texas Parks and Wildlife is still soliciting for we the taxpayer to make direct donations underscores this prediction. (And, no, I won't make a donation myself; it's called "enabling the wingnuts" — as in a spouse/lover enabling an alcoholic/addict.)
10. The state of Texas will lose the school finance lawsuit while the Lege is in session, but even with an expedited appeals route, appeals will not be done in time.
11. The state of Texas will lose all its appeals and, shades of the past, have to have multiple special sessions of the legislature before passing an acceptable school finance bill.
12. The US will sell drones to South Korea, which will escalate tensions with China, both directly and vis-a-vis Japan.
13. Britain's Liberal Democrats, for reasons unknown, will remain in coalition with Conservatives.
14. Bradley Manning will eventually accept a crappy plea-bargain deal, while the British government and Julian Assange will remain at deadlock all year.
===
Culture
1. "Lincoln" will win Oscars for best actor, director, producer, cinemetography and possibly screenplay.
2. Some rock star past the age of the 60 will become a father.
3. The Minnesota Orchestra (management) will refuse to settle its strike/lockout with its musicians and the season will be washed out.
4. Fox will announce plans for a new late-night talk show.
5. PBS will revamp "News Hour."
7. Whether to Europe or Native Americans, a number of US museums will make major repatriations of art and artifacts.
8. John Adams will start work on a new opera.
1. The so-called "fiscal cliff" will finally get a deal on ... wait for it ... Jan. 7. Stock market will continue to sag, but not totally tank until that date, therefore undercutting the Pete Petersons of the world. Both Republicans and Democrats will do some can-kicking, postponing many details for discussion — until after the 2014 elections. GOP will "bite" on what was originally the offer by President Barack Obama, aka Dear Leader, for "chained CPI" on Social Security, and pressure Senate Democrats to "lump it."
And, yes, I know, there's claims that a "deal" is just around the corner, as of 7 p.m. Eastern time Dec. 31. Read a story like this, though, and you get a Swiss cheese of caveat holes.
2. Speaking of that, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will make only minor changes to filibuster rules.
3. President Obama will offer only relatively minor changes in whatever gun control legislation he sends to Congress, and will make the announcement of such legislation itself relatively mild. (As in sending it to Congress after 5 p.m. on a Friday.)
4. Angela Merkel's coalition, the unwieldy one, will fall apart in Germany sometime this year over a mix of resentment toward the eurozone's south, the Free Democrats' stance on nuclear power, and a general weariness.
5. John Kerry will become US Secretary of State. Rep. Edward Markey will win the special election to replace him in the Senate.
6. Chuck Hagel will ultimately withdraw his name from Secretary of Defense consideration after lack of support from Obama. At this point, I won't even venture a guess over who's next on Obama's list.
7. India's rape-murder tragedy will be the last straw for its current government ad will force parliamentary elections some time in 2013. The Congress party will suffer disastrous losses. The new BJP government will get more aggressive against both native Maoists and Pakistan. The BJP will not improve the lives of Indian women, though.
8. Climate change legislation will not even get considered by the US. But, the European Union will hold firm on its airline carbon taxes.
9. The Texas Legislature's new budget will not only be more hardcore antiabortion, it will tighten the belt on health care for the poor and have no major new money for schools. The fact that Texas Parks and Wildlife is still soliciting for we the taxpayer to make direct donations underscores this prediction. (And, no, I won't make a donation myself; it's called "enabling the wingnuts" — as in a spouse/lover enabling an alcoholic/addict.)
10. The state of Texas will lose the school finance lawsuit while the Lege is in session, but even with an expedited appeals route, appeals will not be done in time.
11. The state of Texas will lose all its appeals and, shades of the past, have to have multiple special sessions of the legislature before passing an acceptable school finance bill.
12. The US will sell drones to South Korea, which will escalate tensions with China, both directly and vis-a-vis Japan.
13. Britain's Liberal Democrats, for reasons unknown, will remain in coalition with Conservatives.
14. Bradley Manning will eventually accept a crappy plea-bargain deal, while the British government and Julian Assange will remain at deadlock all year.
===
Culture
1. "Lincoln" will win Oscars for best actor, director, producer, cinemetography and possibly screenplay.
2. Some rock star past the age of the 60 will become a father.
3. The Minnesota Orchestra (management) will refuse to settle its strike/lockout with its musicians and the season will be washed out.
4. Fox will announce plans for a new late-night talk show.
5. PBS will revamp "News Hour."
7. Whether to Europe or Native Americans, a number of US museums will make major repatriations of art and artifacts.
8. John Adams will start work on a new opera.
My 2013 predictions in sports
For any international readers I have, these predictions are largely, but not entirely, US based.
1. The St. Louis Cardinals will win the World Series. (Hey, I always predict that.)
2. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell will get in the baseball Hall of Fame. None of the roiders will; even the two kings, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, will fail to pass 50 percent, though at least two other candidates will. (One, I've already reviewed, another, days ahead.) Jack Morris will fall just short of 75 percent, leaving one more year to fight against his candidacy. (Read through recent blog posts of mine for detailed assessments of several candidates, or visit this blog post for an overview of all.
3. The Denver Broncos will win the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning will NOT retire afterward.
4. Jason Garrett will remain the Dallas Cowboys head coach.
5. The Miami Heat will repeat as NBA champs, defeating the Los Angeles Clippers in the finals.
6. The NHL will officially cancel its season, some time around Jan. 15. It will not settle the current impasse until late enough into 2013 to cause an abbreviated 2013-14 season.
7. Tiger Woods will not win a major championship in golf this year. Rory McElroy will win the Masters, post one other top 5, one top 10 and one top 20 in the other three majors. He will win four tournaments overall, maybe more, and repeat as player of the year. Two of the other three majors will have first-time winners. Tiger will win three times overall, but miss at least one cut. He will remain ranked No. 2, but at least as far behind Rory as he is ahead of No. 3.
1. The St. Louis Cardinals will win the World Series. (Hey, I always predict that.)
2. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell will get in the baseball Hall of Fame. None of the roiders will; even the two kings, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, will fail to pass 50 percent, though at least two other candidates will. (One, I've already reviewed, another, days ahead.) Jack Morris will fall just short of 75 percent, leaving one more year to fight against his candidacy. (Read through recent blog posts of mine for detailed assessments of several candidates, or visit this blog post for an overview of all.
3. The Denver Broncos will win the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning will NOT retire afterward.
4. Jason Garrett will remain the Dallas Cowboys head coach.
5. The Miami Heat will repeat as NBA champs, defeating the Los Angeles Clippers in the finals.
6. The NHL will officially cancel its season, some time around Jan. 15. It will not settle the current impasse until late enough into 2013 to cause an abbreviated 2013-14 season.
7. Tiger Woods will not win a major championship in golf this year. Rory McElroy will win the Masters, post one other top 5, one top 10 and one top 20 in the other three majors. He will win four tournaments overall, maybe more, and repeat as player of the year. Two of the other three majors will have first-time winners. Tiger will win three times overall, but miss at least one cut. He will remain ranked No. 2, but at least as far behind Rory as he is ahead of No. 3.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)