April 05, 2016

Kasich has good reason to stay in GOP race

John Kasich
Of the 17 remaining GOP primary events, nine are proportional in some way, seven are winner-take-all and one, today's Wisconsin, is winner take most — the winner is guaranteed a certain percentage, but the overall divvy of the other delegates is at least somewhat proportional, according to that first line. Per Wiki, New York, Connecticut and Washington have 20 percent thresholds, but Kasich, I'll venture, has a good shot at the threshold in Washington State, at least a decent shot in Connecticut, and who knows in New York State? That said, Wiki says Wisconsin is WTA, not WTM. 270 to Win notes that it's WTA for 18 statewide, then a separate WTA for three delegates per Congressional district, and, that's plurality wins, no absolute majority needed, for both the Congressional districts and statewide.

Kasich could win a congressional district or two, and thus still rack up a few delegates. As long as he does that, he arguably keeps some degree of viability until April 19. And, who knows how much Trump could implode until then.

Cruz and Trump are in a virtual tie there.

And, after Wisconsin, there's nothing in the hopper until the April 19 New York et al. So, why drop out just because of one primary? Beyond the delegates Kasich has, Rubio still has his.

Meanwhile, the Democratic side is a big test for Bernie Sanders. Open primary in a state that's largely white outside metro Milwaukee. On the other hand, Ohio and Missouri, both somewhat similar and both open primaries, were both won by Clinton. But, not totally similar ... both those states have twice the African-American population percentages as Wisconsin. Of course, Michigan of his narrow win had an even slightly higher black population.

Polling remains split in the state.

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