Egypt ... post-Mubarak? In 48 hours? And, who leads?

What could Egypt look like after the departure of President Hosni Mubarak? And how close, or far away, is that day?

A post-Mubarak Egypt, assuming it's not run by son Gamal or CIA-loving thug Omar Suleiman, will probably be a lot like Turkey. Unless you're an American exceptionalist of the bipartistan foreign policy establishment, there's nothing wrong with that. Might even be some good in it.

Anyway, if the bipartisans think we can't live with that, we'll have to learn. And, maybe Israel needs to start being less intransigent with Palestinians about now, if Egypt does become another Turkey. In light of Al Jazeera's Palestine papers, might be some good there, too.

And, how close are we to that post-Mubarak era?

Well, de facto opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei reportedly gave Mubarak 48 hours to get out, from Wednesday night. And, Obama's having a designee meet with ElBaradei.

What of the Muslim Brotherhood? Is it eeevvulll like neocons say? Will it co-opt Mubarak, and make him Egypt's Abolhassan Bansadr?

Scholar of religion Scott Atran says it's incompetent, if anything, so such co-opting is unlikely. And, Atran says it's a "carpetbagger" as much as some claim ElBaradei is:

Ever since its founding in 1928 as a rival to Western-inspired nationalist movements that had failed to free Egypt from foreign powers, the Muslim Brotherhood has tried to revive Islamic power. Yet in 83 years it has botched every opportunity. In Egypt today, the Brotherhood counts perhaps some 100,000 adherents out of a population of over 80 million. And its failure to support the initial uprising in Cairo on Jan. 25 has made it marginal to the spirit of revolt now spreading through the Arab world.

That said, Atran adds that this is two wrongs definitely not making a right.

This error was compounded when the Brotherhood threw in its lot with ElBaradei, the former diplomat and Nobel Prize winner. (W)hen ElBaradei strode into Tahrir Square, many ignored him and few rallied to his side despite the enormous publicity he was receiving in the Western press. The Brotherhood realized that in addition to being late, it might be backing the wrong horse.

Very, very interesting.

Meanwhile, if ElBaradei is "the man" ... and it may be somebody flying below the West's radar screen, instead, Juan Cole says Egypt is not Iran 1979.

I know a lot of people have said that's the case because Egypt doesn't have oil.

No, but it does have other resources, like tourism. And, a theocratic Egypt could decide to deliberately cut off the West, while marketing to the Muslim world.

We shall see.

And, let's hope ElBaradei or whomever has a thicker skin than the criticism-sensitive Mubarak. Looks like Hosni has a thin skin.