SocraticGadfly: Hey, Team Blue? Stop clutching your pearls over Madcow Maddow's unemployment hyping

October 14, 2022

Hey, Team Blue? Stop clutching your pearls over Madcow Maddow's unemployment hyping

Here's the reality behind that 3.5 percent September unemployment rate that she breathlessly pushed:

Employers added 263,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. It was the slowest month of hiring in 18 months, showing the red-hot job market is cooling slightly as the Federal Reserve hits the brakes on the economy. 
The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.5% in September as businesses continued to hire from a shrinking pool of workers. The labor participation rate fell slightly, indicating fewer people are working or looking for a job.

There you go.

Yes, per the rest of the piece, it's still a tight job market. 

It may "loosen up" once we actually get into recession.

Meanwhile, the piece also notes that the hiring numbers have been sliding for a few months.

The job market has been weakening for the past few months, with the three-month average job gains shrinking from roughly 530,000 a month at the start of the year to 370,000 today. Job openings fell by more than a million in August, to the lowest level since June 2021.

Quitting? Home sales money to make that easier? Just "taking a break"?

Meanwhile, there's the final angle, as the piece also notes.

If the Fed sees the unemployment rate, by itself, as a sign that inflation is still untamed, it may jack interest rates yet again even as gas prices are back on the rise.

Add to the mix? The nation's No. 3 railroad union rejected the contract that Amtrak Joe brokered to head off the strike. Per that link, via Mike Elk, a strike isn't imminent; the degree of opposition isn't high enough. Four unions have ratified the deal, per the link; seven others are in the voting process of 12 total, leaving the Teamsters' sub-union as the first to vote no. Nothing is expected before Nov. 19, which puts it past the midterms.

So, even to the degree this might be good news for #BlueAnon for the midterms? It could be catastrophic after that.

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