That's Larry Johnson's claim Iran either has or is about to have a nuke. And note those two tense agreements, as I quote his first graf:
Pepe Escobar and I received the following intelligence report last Thursday, which was produced by a knowledgeable source with access. I am not reproducing the entire report, but want to highlight the issue of whether or not Iran now has, or soon will have a nuke. Let me emphasize that I firmly support past US intel community assessments that Iran, until now, had no interest in obtaining a nuke.
Even Sy Hersh isn't claiming shit like that.
Speaking of, as I said in restacking?
There’s a BIG difference between "has" and "may have" in the first graf on Iran and nuclear weapons. The rest of Johnson's piece smells highly breathless; at least as “breathless” as some of Sy Hersh’s writings here on Substack.
Yes.
Then, The Dissident linked to it in his own moderately breathless piece.
I had a longer comment/restack on that, to which I added an additional note, only on the restack, referencing his response to my comment. Here you are:
There's a big difference between the header saying Iran "has developed a nuclear weapon" and the subhed saying "Iran MAY Now Actually Develop a Nuclear Weapon." BIG difference.
Johnson at your link also tries to go both ways, using both "has" and "may have" in the first graf.
The rest of Johnson's piece smells highly breathless; at least as “breathless” as some of Sy Hersh’s writings here on Substack. And, it's not the first breathless thing he's uttered here or on You Tube in recent weeks. Or in the past decade.
As co-founder of VIPS, I believe he signed off on the majority report about the 2016 hacking that believed all the "Forensicator" bullshit and that helped goose the Seth Rich conspiracy theory. Per the one comment, Dissident said he'd edited; you wanna tell Larry Johnson to edit as well?
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The Dissident has since responded to the version of this that was a comment on his site. He further explained the editing while noting Johnson’s claim is “unconfirmed.” The reality is Johnson’s claim is almost certainly fact-free on Iran “May Actually Develop” and totally fact-free on “Has Developed” and there’s no need to have given him the time of day.
And, yes, Larry Johnson is a nutter.
So's Pepe Escobar.
Beyond what I said about Johnson in that note, he also appears to be playing footsie at times with John Helmer of borderline antisemitism fame and other things.
And, as briefly referenced in my response to The Dissident, per a full decade ago and the Seth Rich conspiracy theory, Johnson is a co-founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, the majority of whom, via Patrick Lawrence, signed off on the Forensicator bullshit, bullshit called out by Duncan Campbell, bullshit that helped goose the Seth Rich conspiracy theory, bullshit for which, AFAIK, Johnson remains unapologetic. Per his Wiki, that would not be the only shark-jumping for which he remains unapologetic.
And, the nutter photo? Of Johnson as defender of Free Dumb? From his website, where the photo's a clickable link to this Free Dumb defender event. James Webb is the closest thing to a non-nutter on non-Nat-Sec Nutsacks™stuff of the names I recognize or took time to google. Man, there's grifting there if they're charginpg $999 a pop and getting people to pay.
Thirty-six hours later, The Dissident checked in with people like Mearsheimer and found out for himself the non-proliferation portion of the facts, which I already knew. I didn't even bother with him, because I knew the nuke angle itself was silly. As John said, Russia and China are opposed to proliferation and Pakistan is not a friend of Iran. John didn't even bother mentioning North Korea. He did note that, also contra Johnson, the idea of exploding a single nuke is itself laughable. You just threw away your deterrent.
There's at least one commenter still defending Johnson on The Dissident's follow-up. Actually, several more than one. One got butt-hurt when I mentioned Johnson's backstory, then said it was above not only his knowledge level but his interest, then got butt-hurt over my nom de plume to boot. I said "got it on you not wanting to learn more" and "I'm crushed."
Contra other commenters there, Ted Postol actually said that Iran could level up its current enriched uranium to bombs-grade for 20-30 weapons in weeks. Personally, I think months is more likely, and I doubt that Iran would actually build out the two-state U235/U238 bomb he describes. (Think of a thermonuclear without the second, fusion, stage.) Other commenters there engaging in a bit of hand-waving on that, too.
Also, re Postol, launching the old-tyme gun-mechanism bomb from a ballastic missile has never been tested.
Also also, two months ago, he was saying 10-11, not 10-20. See here. That said, he blames Biden for not resuming Obama's deal after Trump 1.0 killed it.
Finally, per this piece, there's rumors the Pakistani foreign minister has said something about an Iranian demonstration and more. That right there stresses the need for accurate information, and it also indicates where Johnson's source is. Some blabber either at mid-grade in the ISI, or in some Western intelligence service monitoring the ISI, probably got some info 24 hours early. Besides, the ACTUAL rumor was that Pakistan's foreign minister shared info about Iran's nuke program in general.
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Trump and Bibi?
Mearsheimer, June 2, appeared to halfway believe there was some semi-existential break between the two, after Trump gave Netanyahu an F-bomb yelling and told him not to attack Beirut.
Reality? Everybody from Zionist Trump-whisperer Barak Ravid on Axios to PBS have reported that yes, this happens but that both say it's no big deal.
For that matter, what if this was some sort of performance theater?
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