Barak Ravid is MOU-whispering

Is the MOU indeed in danger? At the middle of last week, it and initial technical discussions looked to be going swimmingly. Now, after the weekend, not at all. So, perhaps, per my thoughts 10 days ago that the MOU was looking MIA, I was more right than wrong.

First, on the Iranian side, who's doing the attacks? The government? The Revolutionary Guards, who claim responsibility? A subset of them?

Second, per the MOU, and per the status before the Iran war started, while Gulf Arab states may want a closer relationship with Tehran, including loosening ties with Washington, an Iran-only, not Iran-Oman, Hormuz, will never be accepted.

The global community has long considered the strait an international passageway, despite its location in Iran and Oman’s territorial waters. In recent days, Iran has twice attacked vessels going through a route on the Omani side in an evacuation effort backed by a United Nations agency. 

Iran insists that it alone must govern the strait, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf that once carried a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated the claim on Sunday.

Period. (Also, per my analysis, Point 2 of the MOU supports the status antebellum.) Now, per two paragraphs above? Is Araghchi officially representing President Masoud Pezeshkian? Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei? The Revolutionary Guards?

Now, Barak Ravid. Beyond him being a Trump whisperer and a Satanyahu whisperer, this new piece about an Israel-Lebanon deal only extends the trend. How do sources outside the current government of Lebanon feel? Not told. Is Iran actually worried? Not told. Gulf Arab states? Not told. (That's beyond his Captain Obvious piece about MOU troubles, where the paywall came too soon for me to see his "angle.")

THAT said, a non-walled version of the piece indicated Ravik may be overselling it, and not commenting on one key angle: an Israel pullback, even if but a small one. On the other hand? The Dissident notes that Israeli pullback is contingent on Lebanon disarming Hezbollah. Ain't happening. 

THAT that said, going back to Hormuz? Mearsheimer notes that Iran still holds all the trumps in the deck. (I see what I did.)