Coronavirus week 42: Vaccine-resistant strains, more

COVID is still not going anywhere; sadly, the increased wearing of masks in rural/red areas is also not going anywhere. That's doubly important because some new variants may have greater vaccine resistance, even as Merikkka may well pass 450,000 deaths by the end of this month and is almost certain to pass 500,000 by the end of February.

So, with that in mind, and because this is global pandemic, we start with global-level news. Let's dig in to what we have for this week.

First, a reminder. We're now at anniversaries stage, as last Thursday was one year since the first confirmed US case.

Global

The P1 variant first found in Brazil, like the London and South Africa ones, appears to have increased virulence (but not death rate) versus the original strain. It also MAY (stand by) increase chances of reinfection. (The first confirmed US case has now been reported.)

The Biden Administration and others have talked about delaying second doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine to try to stretch it out. From Britain, the UK's rough equivalent of an emergency science group within the National Academy of Sciences strongly warns against that, saying it's likely to create vaccine-resistant strains of the virus.

Lawrence Wright has a long piece about COVID-19 variants and vaccine immunity. The whole thing is worth a read, but the shorter version? The UK variant appears to be no problem on the current vaccines, but the South African variant may indeed have more vaccine resistance. On the new Brazilian variant, it's too soon to say, but given anecdotes coming from that country, it's almost certainly more vaccine-resistant. And, it's not just the current Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Any COVID vaccine that is mRNA based and targets a virus in the same way they do is vulnerable to having props knocked out from under it if the virus shows fairly rapid evolution.

With all this in mind, it's why I said last week that I doubt a universal vaccine against all coronaviruses will ever be feasible. The expense of gearing a new one up every year, vs. the annual flu vaccine, with the added issue that it would likely, on average, be only 50 percent effective vs the flu jab being 70 percent effective, all argue against it.

 

National

 

The New York Times says that the slowness of the vaccine rollout means that it won't be safe to end social distancing measures until this summer.

 

Via guest blogger Dorit Reiss, Skeptical Raptor updates his previous comments on employer vaccine mandates. Reiss notes that Pfizer and Moderna were both approved under EUAs and that there's never been a test case over whether or not an employer can require an EUA vaccine. Reiss says that, as she sees it, the framework still lies in favor of the employer, but it's not a slam-dunk. She adds that things like collective bargaining will have other restrictions.

Texas

State Rep. Carl Sherman, who I knew long ago in my Today Newspaper days, is the latest who "got it." Per the Trib, kudos to the Texas House, with members actually LESS WINGNUT in the Texas GOP in the pink Capitol dome than their counterparts in the white one in DC. The Texas House UNANIMOUSLY voted to require masks on the floor. 

The state's unemployment rate remains high, and that doesn't include underemployment, wage cuts at many full-time jobs, and more. Reminders to wingnut-lite Gov. Strangeabbott all the way to wingnut de luxe Shelley Luther on "reopen Texas": Dead people don't shop.

And, COVID deaths continue to fall hardest on people in service-type jobs who have few options.

The latest case surge in Texas is in the upper Valley, north and south of Laredo. (Yeah, I know, that's technically not part of the "Valley" to most Texans, but you know what? If we're being really technical, geologically speaking, there is no such thing as a Rio Grande Valley at all. So shut up.)

Dan Solomon actually writes a story for the Monthly that isn't a feel-good indulgence of Texas myth, but rather, a claim that on total infections, it's worse than we hear, as he wonders when "normal" will return.

The UK variant is in the Metroplex.

National

Fauci says Trump wouldn't let him go on Rachel Maddow. So, telling Platonic "noble lies" is fine, but having balls is not.

Could we all finally, maybe, be getting relatively cheap N95 masks? If so, will anybody require wearing them, not just "a mask"? (The answer is yes in several European countries and haha [sardonic laugh] tis to die for in Merikkka.)