SocraticGadfly: Mo continues to keep his hands under his butt on major rotation additions for the Cardinals

January 03, 2020

Mo continues to keep his hands under his butt
on major rotation additions for the Cardinals

Dallas Keuchel? To the White Sox at 3/$55.5, which could vest to 4/$74. Still cheaper than Hyun-Jin Ryu and $4/80 with the Jays.

They even passed on getting Gio Gonzalez for just $5M for one year. Though they did avoid paying, or overpaying, Madison Bumgarner at 5/$85.

I do NOT consider Gwang-Hyun Kim an acceptable answer for upgrading the rotation with Michael Wacha officially gone now, certainly not if the question is "Do you want to go to the World Series?" rather than "do you want to make the playoffs?" (With Cubs in sell mode and the Brew Crew kind of consolidating, making the playoffs next year should be a given. That said, MLBTR fans expect the Reds to win 85-89 games, so no sleeping on your hands!)

So, we're still at me wanting Mo to be daring and creative — daring enough to trade Matt Carpenter for David Price, while taking on Jackie Bradley Jr. as well in a salary dump.

First, per the question behind the question, and the poll at right, yes, the Cards really could use another starter.

Second, a lefty is preferable. Mo has said that.

So, would another starting pitcher on the mound help the St. Louis Cardinals next year?

I say yes. And, they've got money to do it, one way or another.

Carlos Martinez may or may not be a starter, and his latest shoulder issues? Don't hold your breath. Plus, if you move him out of the pen, who's your closer until midseason? At the same time, while Adam Wainwright surprised last year on both health and performance? Don't circle him in as a guarantee to do that again. (And, his big bounceback on performance was only to a skoosh above league average.) And don't count on Alex Reyes for much of anything.

So, riffing on David Schoenfield's blockbuster trade idea? To help the Red Sox get under the lux tax line, rather than trading for Mookie Betts plus not-needed-he's-a-righty Nathan Eovaldi, and giving up too much back? Send Carpenter (and maybe, but hopefully not, one or another of the OF players Schoenfield mentions) — for Price plus letting the Sox dump enough other salary to be it worth their while but not kill the Cards.

Cards get their lefty starter. Price may have a second gust of energy coming over to the NL.

It would have to be more than a 1-for-1 straight up, in all likelihood. With Carp's extension, the Sox would save "only" $13.5 million per year. Per Cot's Contracts, that move alone gets them close, but not under. But, if they combine that with some judicious cutting elsewhere? They get below the tax line one year, reset, and then maybe resign Betts.

And you do that by the Sox including JBJ.

And you know? It isn't that expensive for the Cards, but he would be enough to get you just below. And, MLB Trade Rumors says he could be an outfield boost. And that the Cards are looking for lefty bats, which he is one of. (They'd lose one with Carp, of course.)

But, besides him being a righty the Cards just don't need, they just don't need the overpaid Eovaldi on Schoenfield's idea.

First, Mo is not trading for Betts as a rent-a-player. He's traded for players on the last year of a contract before, but with the expectation he could resign them. I don't think Mo has plans to shell out 8/$260 or more for Betts. (Likely more.**)

Second, Mo is not trading away Tommy Edman. Period.

Third, he is not trading for Eovaldi, period.

And, the Sox could use Carp, at his old stomping ground of 2B, where they have a black hole right now.

The salary diff? That's $24.5 million this year, just above the $22M I said the Cardinals could easily spend in free agency. It drops to $13.5M next year. The third year is pricier cuz the Cards have only two years of Carp contract* while Price has three. But, other players will be coming off current contracts by them.

* Carp's contract vests for 2022 with 500 ABs both of 2020 and 2021.

And, doesn't he have a no-trade option? Yes, but it doesn't kick in until the start of the 2020 season, along with the higher pay of the extension, and we're in the 2019 offseason.

It's a gamble on Price's health, yes. But, even when injury-struggling, he's still been above average. When injury free, he's still well above average. And, if it feels like too much of a gamble? Ask the Sox to throw in a draft pick or two. Or minor league talent, if only "filler" level.

The problem, besides Mo's cheapness, seems to be Boston greed. They're wanting prospects back for Price. And they're simply not going to get that. As I note, this trade fixes a need, a major need, for Boston, while giving them pretty good salary relief at the same time.

Anyway, this trade seems more win-win (if gambles pay off on both sides) than does the Schoenfield proposal. And, it makes a fair chunk of sense within the current free agent world and prices. So, Cards fans who think trading for Price in any way, shape or form is crazy? I respectfully suggest you think again.

It makes more sense for another reason — reports that the Sawks, like the Stros, cheated on stealing signs. Assuming Rob Manfred drops the hammer, Bloom has more incentive yet to get under the lux tax cap with a team going nowhere. So, he'll lower his price soon enough.

But Mo will sit on his hands and snooze, even as the Dodgers are rumored to be making a big play to trade for Price PLUS Betts.

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