Should the Cardinals trade for David Price?

This is an update and tweaking of a post from yesterday. (I'd originally linked Matt Carpenter twice, once under the name of David Price, with B-Ref. Derp! But, breaking news from free agency land makes an overhauled post worthwhile, and those two names are at the center of it.)

First, per the question behind the question, and the poll at right, yes, the Cards really could use another starter.

Second, a lefty is preferable. Mo has said that.

So, would another starting pitcher on the mound help the St. Louis Cardinals next year?

I say yes. And, they've got money to do it, one way or another.

They don't need to replace Marcell Ozuna in the OF.

Since the Cardinals let Michael Wacha walk (the Mets just signed him, for about the $6M I expected if he hits most incentive clauses), they'll have room for a starter. And, with his money plus Ozuna's (let's say somebody, like the Reds, pays him $16M a year), that's $22M a year.

Not even close to the two priciest pitchers.

But that's not needed. Something, though, is needed, IMO.

Carlos Martinez may or may not be a starter, and his latest shoulder issues? Don't hold your breath. Plus, if you move him out of the pen, who's your closer until midseason? At the same time, while Adam Wainwright surprised last year on both health and performance? Don't circle him in as a guarantee to do that again. (And, his big bounceback on performance was only to a skoosh above league average.)

So,

Is $22M a year, dependent on contract length, enough to land Madison Bumgarner? Dallas Keuchel? Hyun-Jin Ryu. Possibly but not guaranteed on any of them.**

Any of those work at No. 2 starter level. MLB.com reports the Birds are interested in Bum. OTOH, it also notes he has high home-road splits the last three years, and some are of real concern.

Ryu, I'm kind of leery of, due to injury history. Bumgarner (other than in the off-season!), Keuchel and Hamels all have fairly long to long track records of durability. That said, Bum got the QO, so the Cards would have to give the draft pick back.

There's another consideration. Bumgarner isn't represented by a certain Scott Boras. The other two are.

So, riffing on David Schoenfield's blockbuster trade idea? To help the Red Sox get under the lux tax line, rather than trading for Mookie Betts plus not-needed-he's-a-righty Nathan Eovaldi, and giving up too much back? Send Carpenter (and maybe, but hopefully not, one or another of the OF players Schoenfield mentions) — for Price plus letting the Sox dump enough other salary to be it worth their while but not kill the Cards.

Cards get their lefty starter. Price may have a second gust of energy coming over to the NL.

It would have to be more than a 1-for-1 straight up, in all likelihood. With Carp's extension, the Sox would save "only" $13.5 million per year. Per Cot's Contracts, that move alone gets them close, but not under. But, if they combine that with some judicious cutting elsewhere? They get below the tax line one year, reset, and then maybe resign Betts.

And you know? Jackie Bradley Jr. isn't that expensive for the Cards, but he would be enough to get you just below. And, MLB Trade Rumors says he could be an outfield boost. And that the Cards are looking for lefty bats, which he is one of. (They'd lose one with Carp, of course.)

But, besides him being a righty the Cards just don't need, they just don't need the overpaid Eovaldi.

First, Mo is not trading for Betts as a rent-a-player. He's traded for players on the last year of a contract before, but with the expectation he could resign them. I don't think Mo has plans to shell out 8/$260 or more for Betts. (Likely more.**)

Second, Mo is not trading away Edman. Period.

Third, he is not trading for Eovaldi, period.

And, the Sox could use Carp, at his old stomping ground of 2B, where they have a black hole right now.

The salary diff? That's $24.5 million this year, just above the $22M I said the Cardinals could easily spend in free agency. It drops to $13.5M next year. The third year is pricier cuz the Cards have only two years of Carp contract* while Price has three. But, other players will be coming off current contracts by them.

* Carp's contract vests for 2020 with 500 ABs both of 2020 and 2021.

And, doesn't he have a no-trade option? Yes, but it doesn't kick in until the start of the 2020 season, along with the higher pay of the extension, and we're in the 2019 offseason.

It's a gamble on Price's health, yes. But, even when injury-struggling, he's still been above average. When injury free, he's still well above average. And, if it feels like too much of a gamble? Ask the Sox to throw in a draft pick or two. Or minor league talent, if only "filler" level.

Here's another way to put it, Mo, Cards fans, all. Go beneath that "fold."

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** notes here.

Stephen Strasburg, with his own injury history, just got paid to the same length and $3M more per year than Price started at on his contract.

The price for Keuchel, Ryu and Bum just went up, and will go up even more with Gerrit Cole signing before any of them do, especially with him blowing Strasburg out of the water by a full $80 million.

Keuchel and Bum are surely both wanting somewhere around 6/$150. Maybe more. With opt-out clauses possibly part of that. And, somebody will pay it, for sure for Bum and possibly for Keuchel. I could see one or the other getting a 7/$180 offer. (Keuchel's a year older, but has a lot fewer innings on his odometer. Price is only 170 innings or so above Bumgarner.)

(OK, I was wrong on Bum. The D-backs, and others, apparently took note of his massive home/road splits.)

Ryu, even with injuries, will surely get 5/$120. Zach Wheeler just got $5/118 with less of a record and more injury history, although he is younger.

Anyway, this trade seems more win-win (if gambles pay off on both sides) than does the Schoenfield proposal. And, it makes a fair chunk of sense within the current free agent world and prices. So, Cards fans who think trading for Price in any way, shape or form is crazy? I respectfully suggest you think again.