SocraticGadfly: Will the Cardinals sign a starting pitcher in free agency?

November 26, 2019

Will the Cardinals sign a starting pitcher in free agency?

They will have the money for it, with Marcell Ozuna turning down the qualifying offer, and they should.

(See polls at right to vote yes/no/unsure on if they should, and then, if you agree with me, the second poll on WHO they should. Also note results on my Twitter poll so far; Keuchel is the fave there. I'll put up a new second poll soon.)




And, dammit, Cole Hamels is already off the boards, to the Barves on a one-year deal. That happened fast enough it makes me wonder if Mo and Girsch ever even got involved.

(Update, Dec. 9: See my new idea.)

First, they don't need to replace him in the OF. That's more room for Tyler O'Neill, as well as the challenge to step up. Tommy Edman has already shown he can play there as well as the infield. Plus Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler are still there. Between them and Jose Martinez, that's not mind-blowing, but it is solid and with depth.

Assuming the Cardinals let Michael Wacha walk, they'll have room for a starter. And, with his money (let's assume something like the $6M this year) plus Ozuna's (let's say somebody pays him $16M a year), that's $22M a year.

Not even close to Gerrit Cole.

But that's not needed.

Jack Flaherty could already be the man. We'll keep Miles Mikolas penciled at No. 2. Adam Wainwright was a pleasant surprise last year and is coming back fairly cheap this year. Dakota Hudson is something. But, especially as who knows whether Carlos Martinez will be a starter, a closer, a hybrid, or whatever, and how good he will be, or not, at any slot, you need more. (So, even if Fansided is correct [always an assumption] that Mo wants Carlos in the rotation, reality may intervene. That reality would also include a new bout of injuries for Waino, or him being a "hybrid," or Hudson not hitting the next step, or Mikolas having further regression to his pre-Japan self.)

Is $22M a year, dependent on contract length, enough to land Madison Bumgarner? Dallas Keuchel? Hyun-Jin Ryu. Possibly, on the first two, probably to certainly on the third. More than enough for Cole Hamels on a shorter-term deal.

Ryu, I'm kind of leery of, due to injury history. Bumgarner (other than in the off-season!), Keuchel and Hamels all have fairly long to long track records of durability. That said, Bum got the QO, so the Cards would have to give the draft pick back.

MLB.com reports the Birds are interested in Bum. OTOH, it also notes he has high home-road splits the last three years, and some are of real concern.

There's another consideration. Neither Bum nor Hamels are represented by a certain Scott Boras. The other two are.

Frankly, I'd love to kick the tires on Hamels myself.

I think you could get him for three years at ... let's say $16M per plus some incentives. Might leave money for tweaks elsewhere.

That's enough of a bridge to get past the end of Waino's career and other likely transitions, and see just what the younger starters have to offer.

So, Hamels first, Keuchel second, Bum third, Ryu fourth is my target choice list.

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