Beto's ongoing campaign gambles

While Anne Helen Peterson's Buzzfeed News puff piece about O'Rourke — critiqued by me here — had some definite problems, it had some definite insights as well.

One important one is that Beto has, to this point, dodged doing traditional wholesale politics with the Hispanic patróns, the politiqueras, of the Valley. There's more confirmation, per C.D. Hooks, of that. That could be problematic. Given what every Texan with political brains already knows about how Hispanics in the Pointy Abandoned Object State™, Hispanics are the capper on Texas being a "non-voting state." So, either Beto is saying he doesn't expect the Valley's barons can or will deliver, or he's thinking that they think his message won't resonate with voters there, despite his Spanish-language skills, or he's making a point of not playing politics as usual. I personally think it's a mix of points two and three, mainly, although both of those points are surely evident enough that the patróns indeed probably also see them, thus bringing the first point into play.

Justin Miller of the Texas Observer has a new follow-up that says Beto is still swimming upstream in the Valley.

Peterson also noted to a lesser extent that he's not totally reaching out to urban black power brokers. In Houston, that would be Sylvester Turner, above all, tho he's enough of a ConservaDem he's probably sympatico with Beto. In Dallas, it would be Royce West and Our Man Downtown, John Wiley Price, tho I don't think ANY recent Dem governor's candidate has made an effort to, or wanted to make an effort to, court him.

If people look at campaign-stop pictures, in more urban and more blueish areas, Robert Francis Kennedy O'Rourke is targeting the youth vote, no matter its ethnicity. However, not just in Texas, but nationally, we all know the youth vote turns out lower than oldsters.

A lot of polls, even those that should know better, overrate Hispanic turnout early in a race. The ones that put Beto in a statistical dead head with Cruz are probably doing that, as well as overestimating youth turnout.

That said, the enthusiasm is there.

Living in a medium-small town that's definitely "red," I have seen more Beto signs than for all other statewide-race Democrats combined. In fact, I think I've seen more O'Rourke signs than Cruz ones. So, the enthusiasm is there. On the center to right of the party, and with at least some independents.

But, if traditional core minority Democrats don't turn out in any better than normal midterm numbers, if that, will it be enough? That's even more an open question if leftist independents like me, Brains, and David Bruce Collins, with no Green candidate, undervote.

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For a roundup of polling in all major statewide races, go here.