SocraticGadfly: Comparing 500-homer, 100-RBI seasons of past and today is apples and oranges

May 08, 2007

Comparing 500-homer, 100-RBI seasons of past and today is apples and oranges

I have to disagree with ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian that today’s players are as good as or better than top stars of the past, based just on stat lines.

He cites as an example Jim, Thome, who:
Is a lifetime .282 hitter with a .410 on-base, a .566 slugging, as many 100-RBI seasons (nine) as McCovey and Willie Stargell combined, and as many 40-homer seasons (six) as Willie Mays.

Batting average is an average, but even it’s been affected by one change since the time of McCovey and the prime of Stargell — the designated hitter in the American League, where Thome has played the majority of his career.

And, that has certainly helped RBI totals, with another batsman getting on base more often than the typical pitcher.

There’s another factor which changed in the early 1960s expansion from eight to 10 teams in each league: the move from 154 games to 162. That’s a 5 percent increase. How many old sluggers had 38-homer or 96-RBI years under the old schedule? They’d be 40/100 hitters now.

Ballpark size? Sure, the Polo Grounds had that cozy right field, but offset that with Forbes Field in Pittsburgh, Shibe Park in Philly and other caverns.

Throw in maple bats, leaning over the plate with protective equipment and other items.

Thome may still be a Hall of Famer, but, let’s not gush quite so much, shall we?

Now, by the end of his column, Kurk says many of the sluggers who break the 500-homer mark in the next decade may have to wait years before getting an invite to the Hall. Some may never make it, he says.

But, other than the idea that some of them may not be as all-around as players from the past, he doesn’t say why.

And, I just did. Steroids or no steroids, there’s several reasons today’s best may not be directly comparable to those of the past.

Add up everything I mentioned outside of the schedule length change, and I think today’s NL batters have a 6 percent “premium” and those in the AL 10 percent or so. And we haven’t even gotten into a debate about whether or not there really is a dearth of pitching, especially starters, today.

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