A favorite argument from analogy by creationists and IDers against the likelihood of evolution is that it is like the probability of a tornado sweeping through a junkyard and self-assembling a Boeing 747.
I disagree, and am willing to pick up the gauntlet of challenge of their analogy.Rather, it’s like beginning a single sheet of metal with a hole in it, a bolt, and a mini-whirlwind. With the bolt poking up, the whirlwind swirls the metal up into the air until it falls right and slides down the bolt. Then the wind picks up a washer. Then a second sheet of metal, not quite overlapping the first, let’s say. Then a nut. When the nut lodges on the bolt, the wind whirls until the nut ratchets itself down.
Picture hundreds of thousands of similar sheet metal assembling at the same time with other winds, in the same general area. Then picture each set of not-quite-overlapping sheets being battered about further by this wind and water, inducing curvature.
Meanwhile, at the same time, various organic compounds — rubbers, glues, oils, etc. — are all decaying.
Now picture these curved sheets being swept together by the wind, with some of that organic gunk accumulating on the edges as glue Some of these paired sheets will bind to others. As they bind to the top and bottom, they start forming the curve of a fuselage. As they bind left and right, they extend that.
Ditto for wings and other and for electronics. Likewise for motors, etc.
Add the element of similar things happening at different junkyards around the world, remembering that, to make this analogy more true, each junkyard is equivalent to just a couple of liters of water out of our oceans’ vast storehouse. Add in also the element of time, far beyond human scale.
This is not itself meant to be an exact analogy, rather to suggest that modern IDers’ 747 analogy — or Paley’s watch analogy for that matter — can readily be stood on their heads.
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