SocraticGadfly: First Democratic campaign watch 2008

November 20, 2004

First Democratic campaign watch 2008

First, the Democrats need to look at historical standards and recognize they need to run a governor, not a senator.

That leads to the question, of course of, “Which governor?”

Assuming an “Arnold amendment” doesn’t quickly clear 38 states, that rules out Michigan’s Jennifer Granholm.

My guessing, for demographic reasons, lists two governors at the top of the list: Virginia’s Mark Warner and Kansas’ Kathleen Sebelius. Both have demographic strong points.

Warner’s is the obvious — he’s a Southern governor. Plus, Virginia is a red state that can go blue. A home-state candidate would help that, and might give the party a shot at Tennessee and North Carolina as well.

Sebelius comes from a battleground area, as a Midwestern governor. She shows that Democrats can win statewide in a strongly Republican-leading area. And, obviously, she would give the party its first female presidential candidate.

Third on the list would be New Mexico’s Bill Richardson. Coming from yet another battleground state, and arguably a battleground ethnic group, he brings some definite pluses to the table.

However, his stewardship of the Department of Energy under Clinton — i.e., Wen Ho Lee and related fallout — could cause problems. The basic question here is, is a decade enough time for forgetfulness?

Also, if Bush winds up taking New Mexico this year, especially by any significant margin, once all ballots are counted, that might be held against him.

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