Sayonara to the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff

With both Texas and Oklahoma losing today, no Big 12 team is going to college football's version of the Final Four, IMO.

Oklahoma can win out the rest of the regular season and beat either Texas, Baylor or "whomever" in the Big 12 title game and ... no.

Texas is now at two losses and damned near three after needing a last-second field goal a week ago (I first typed "a weak ago") against Mad Hatter Les Miles' Kansas Jayhawks.

Baylor is currently the only conference-undefeated (and overall undefeated) team in the Big 12. Everybody else has two losses outside of Oklahoma. But Baylor still has to play the Sooners, Horns and Longhorn-killer TCU, plus West Virginia. They're losing once at least.

Update, Nov. 1: The Halloween-scary ugly win for Baylor against West Virginia last night underscores that this is still smoke and mirrors for the Bears as much as reality.

TCU looks kind of salty now, but lost to K-State and in a blowout to Iowa State, who lost today to the Cowpokes. And, other than having played the Horns, like Baylor, they face arguably the tougher half of their remaining conference schedule.

There might be some fluke that lets the Sooners in the Big Dance if they win out, but I don't see it.

Most likely option this year is two SEC teams, Clemson and the Big 10 winner. (Sit down, ye Oregon Ducks.)

Update, Nov. 18: Alabama's loss to LSU, plus Tua being out for the year, has knocked it out. But a one-loss Georgia winning the SEC still trumps Oklahoma winning out. And, either Utah or Oregon winning out to win the Pac also would trump the Sooners winning out, IMO, in case LSU wins out and a two-loss Georgia team doesn't cut the mustard. The Big 12 has more ranked teams than the Pac, but both Oregon and Utah are higher than Oklahoma.

OK, what if a two-loss Georgia team (losing to Auburn) beats LSU? Unlikely but not impossible for this scenario to happen. I think you still have two SEC teams.

The Sooners' best chance is Clemson losing. I highly doubt South Carolina beats them in the regular season finale, but Virginia in the ACC title game? They're not that bad of a team.

Update, Nov. 23: Well, well, well. The Sooners win in a fugly game over TCU (I did NOT think Hurts picked up that last fourth down) and ... Oregon loses to ASU. A lot of people think that a Big 12 winning Oklahoma would advance over a one-loss Pac 12 winning Utah, but not over a one-loss Pac 12 winning Oregon. Well, that's out the hole now.

Pew Research tells Texas Dems to still be wary about "counting on" Hispanic votes

I first blogged about this in detail six years ago, and did a follow-up four years ago. I provided some updates within that six-year piece about new demographic information.

I am NOT primarily talking about Texas Hispanic voters' abysmal turnout rates. That's a whole nother story and well known to many.

No, I'm talking about how many Texas Hispanics ain't Catholic (and maybe aren't social justice, let along libertarian theology, oriented within their Catholicism).

And, THAT is where the new Pew Research

Here, let's just let the image do the talking.

I think that's pretty obvious and self-explanatory. And I'll gander, that with allowances for rural Valley Texas, Texas overall matches Hispanic trends in greater NYC, Florida and the West Coast.

Protestants, especially of evangelical stripe, are more likely to vote Republican.

BUT! Protestants didn't replace those lost Catholics; Nones did, followed by non-Christian religious. Among Hispanic Christians, I'm guessing Santeria, etc. might be as much of the non-Christian rise as are Hispanic Buddhists, Hindus, etc. The biggie, though is the Nones.

And, especially among minorities, I don't think we have a strong grasp on how Nones vote. They may be less likely to vote Republican than Democrat, tis true. But they may also be more likely to look for third party or independent candidates, OR more likely to look to stay home if they don't find a close match.

All things Marlin, Texas continues to slide downhill

First, the biggie.

It cost Marlin ISD (cuz TEA will never, EVER reimburse it) $68,000 (and counting?) to push out former Superintendent Michael Seabolt. Seabolt decided to resign (and without his remaining contract money) rather than fight. The story says that was probably a wise decision. Another reason why, in hindsight, his throwing predecessor Michael Steck under the bus doesn't look good. (That's not to say that Steck, alone or in conjunction with TEA monitors in place at that time, didn't fluff how well he was doing.)

That's not the only oops on the school side.

Eddie Ellis Jr., a member of the board of managers appointed by TEA to replace the former elected school board, resigned after the Waco Trib asked TEA why it appointed him after he had pled guilty to a federal misdemeanor on theft of government property. That IS a good question. The plea was more than 18 months ago. Under the plea deal, Ellis should have told TEA about his guilty plea.

Update, Nov. 3: Seabolt is now under TEA investigation.

==

But hey, city of Marlin? Not far behind with former employees.

Mart Police Chief Albert Cavazos, a former Marlin PD officer, has been suspended by Mart for issues related to hiring a former Marlin patrol officer who was suspended there. Sergio Collazo resigned from Mart after this news came out, and he's also been indicted.

==

And in sad news, someone I considered to be a friend, Sandy Hodges from the Falls County Clerk's office, who brightened my days on Friday afternoons for three years, has passed away.

Hey, Sema Hernandez actually raised some pocket change

Sema Hernandez may have the best overall ideas and positions — and maybe be the ONLY candidate who actually states all her positions — among the dog's breath of candidates seeking the Democratic nomination to face John Cornyn. (On stances, Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez is close but not THAT close, as to the degree I can glean bits of her foreign policy, it looks nothing beyond conventional. And, as a good leftist of sorts, I vote on foreign as well as domestic policy stances. She may also be the closest on how much she's actually told about her stances.)

That said, I have also repeatedly called out Sema for turning into Just.Another.Politician.™, for her endorsement of Bob on a Knob O'Rourke after last year's Senate primary even though he did NOT, NOT, NOT (he didn't, Scap) actually endorse single payer AND although many Our Revolution chapters refused to endorse him.

I've also called Sema out for misreading the 2018 primary and her results, instead saying that quite possibly it was about her last name first and everything else a distant second.

I, for somewhat different reasons than the likes of Kuff and John Coby, have also wondered, this cycle, why, if she's a serious candidate AND the first-announced candidate, she hasn't raised any money.

Oh, I'm sorry, I was wrong!

FEC third-quarter filings show the Sema for Texas Committee has raised ... $7,551.

And four cents. (Sema individually still shows nothing.)

But OOPS! (Update, March 4, 2020.) She forgot to file her final pre-primary report. And also forgot to file an end-of-year report before that.

Probably, after she finishes below 10 percent in next spring's primary, some conspiracy theory will be next, followed by an announcement she's running for governor in 2022.

Beyond her misreading the 2018 primary, as far as campaign issues? I think she's simply not that good of a political candidate. And, without money, you can't get paid help. And, her would-be suck-up to Beto and state Dem powerbrokers didn't attract either one. Which gets back to that second link above.

Texas Progressives talk Bonnen, Ike Dike, more

Texas Progressives say RIP to Elijah Cummings, note that "thoughts and prayers" don't stop tornados in Dallas from happening (remember the "prayed it away" stupidity in 2015?) and didn't stop them from being started in the first place, all while wondering what the Houston Astros can do in this year's fall classic and whether they don't deserve to lose instead due to incredible boorishness about domestic abuse.

This corner also quotes Rick Perry and says "Adios, mofo," to state Speaker of the House Dennis Bonnen, who has now announced he's not running for re-election.


Texas politics — Bonnen

What's next for the state House, the Speakership and more, now that Bonnen is leaving? My updated take here.

Off the Kuff rounded up a variety of reactions to the infamous Bonnen-Mucus tape.

At D Magazine, Matt Goodman weighs in on Bonnen's now revealed hatred of city and county government. Goodman offers a good reveal of the Lege's growing practice of bracketing, which used to be limited to just private member's bills. (It was bad enough there.)

Robert Rivard compares Bonnen to Joe Straus and finds him wanting.

Stephen Young also looks at Bonnen's future.


Texas politics — other

At the Observer, Justin Miller asks how vulnerable John Cornyn might be. Sidebar: The infamous perpetual candidate Gene Kelly gave Cornyn his first break, winning a primary over a Dem lawyer who might actually have beaten Cornyn for chief justice of the state Supreme Court.

Brains has his P Slate on constitutional amendments. I agree.


Texana

Janis Joplin gets a new bio.

TransGriot celebrates the opening of an LGBT center at Prairie View.

Texas Signal notes that Dallas and San Antonio have joined Austin in renaming Columbus Day.


Dallas

Trump's tariffs aren't only against China, and not all of them not against China have been ended. In fact, new ones started Friday on Scotch, non-sparkling European wines, various European liqueurs, cookies and biscuits, some European pork products, and all your European cheese mainstays. Above my pay grade on restaurants, but tariffs on European food and wine are hurting the Dallas haute cuisine scene.


Fort Worth

Jim Schutze from the Dallas Observer jogs over to Cowtown news and reminds us that Atatiana Jefferson reportedly had a gun in her hand. This does nothing to address the stench of general Cowtown policing problems, but? I think Jimbo is on better ground here than his pre-trial bromancing the case of Amber Guyger. That said, per others' comments about Jefferson and the gun, including a family member saying she was NOT pointing it at anything but a window, I am not sure that Schutze is on THAT MUCH better ground.


Houston

Brains offers his P Slate in Houston elections.

Dos Centavos has his Stace Slate.

In the wake of new stories about the natural artificial sand dunes the Corps of Engineers has proposed as part of its "Ike Dike" being a cost-overruning tissue of lies, I've updated my story from a year ago calling it a cost-overruning tissue of lies back then. ("Word" to Kuff and partially to Brains; I don't know if David Bruce Collins ever drank that Kool-Aid or not.)


Texas-National

Socratic Gadfly talks about Beto, aka Bob on a Knob, O'Rourke, batting 0 for 2 on recent constitutional issues.

Texas Monthly profiles Trump's campaign manager, Brad Parscale, and details how this grifter insinuated himself into Trump's 2016 campaign, became a Trump Trainer as part of that, and what he's doing so far for 2020.

If Texas isn't in play, then why did Trump come here, the Trib asks. And even though Dennis Bonnen, according to Mucus' tape, worries about Trump's influence, Cornyn as well as Cruz sucked up to him.

Alex Jones lost his appeal on the Sandy Hook lawsuit. He'll surely take it to the state Supremes next. Note how we don't talk about him as much between the lawsuit and the social media boot?


National

SNL goes hilariously over the top with its open last week on the LGBTQ Dem Debate:

Close some national parks? Sounds radical, no? I actually agree with the idea, and the mindset behind it. If neither duopoly party is going to fund the Park Service more, shut some sites down. Read all the "related" pieces linked at bottom. Some are good or OK, others are stupid.

Brians looks at Dem Debate 4, especially the Medicare for All part.

The Lunch Tray connects universal free lunch to higher test scores.

Winners and losers in Canada's elections

By parties, there's two clear losers and three clear winners.

The Liberals and NDP lost.

Greens, getting up to three seats, the Bloc Quebecois and the Conservatives won.

Other losers?

Justin Trudeau individually, and also NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.

Now, Singh's defenders will surely argue that he was campaigning on a very limited budget. I'll argue back that he's been party leader for four years; whose fault is it that NDP finances are so bad?

Another loser?

Once again, Canadian polls seem not as accurate as American or British ones, as an alleged late NDP "surge" proves to be not even close.

Possible winner?

The Canadian public, especially if the NDP price of a full coalition includes electoral reform. But, pre-election, it did not.

Possible winner? The reality of Canada more aligning with the American myth of Canada, given how Singh faced down some ethnic-religious animosity.

In the air to a degree? The future of the NDP. Yes, it dodged minor party status. Yes, Singh raised some new platform issues. But, what all does a social democratic party stand for in a post-industrial country?